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Let’s say you were a mad scientist- and, in a fit of cruelty, decided to recreate the end of the 2009 Tulane football experience?

Perhaps you might start with this year’s football team. Then, remove Ryan Griffin, and re-instate the spotty quarterback play. Take the current defense, pound on them until they are simply worn out, a shell of the unit that took the field earlier in the season versus Rutgers. The empty Dome and horrid special teams are already in place.

"Poof!”

Tulane and the fans are right back to the brutal end of last season- a crushing blowout, an exact repeat of last year’s UCF mess.

This is a game, like Rice last week, where Tulane needed to score to keep up, protect the defense, cover for both turnover and special teams woes. Kevin Moore just isn’t that guy, particularly playing from way behind with no one any good to throw too: DJ Banks zero catches (benched?), Ryan Grant four catches, one turnover. Plus, if Kemp is going to be a limited player at the quarterback position, he can’t be turning the ball over three times. This was going to be a tough game no matter what- but losing the turnover battle four-love made it hopeless.

The Wave could run it- a bright spot. Orleans Darkwa continued his nice rookie campaign with 129 yards, plus 13 carries for a nifty 63 in the first half, saved a bit perhaps by not losing either of his two fumbles. Sure, that sort of production is irrelevant based in an environment where you need to game plan to score six, seven touchdowns to just sort of be in it. Still, the RB position figures to be a plus next year- and unlike this campaign, at least one skill position figures to forecast better than average coming in to the 2011 season.

Bottom line, the defense just doesn’t have much left- an unreal 156 total points have been scored versus Tulane in the past three tilts. That is unreal- coming four years in to the Toledo regime. Surely the 'nauts cannot argue Toledo has "improved the defense".

We’ve seen the Green Wave wear down before. The lack of down roster talent, the roster spots after the first fifteen, is particularly painful now, late in the schedule. These are the guys that populate the woeful special teams, the guys you turn to when some rejuvenating fresh legs just about anywhere would help. But Tulane just doesn’t have them- so the kicking game is a wreck and there are no reinforcements for the weary.

Add in a well-coached, well-motivated opposition, and trouble was likely.

Prediction Thursday- UCF

Of all the teams in C-USA, UCF seems the most anonymous. Tulane has only played this team once since Chris Scelfo left- which, I think we can all agree, seems like an eon ago. It was a desultory, 10-9 win in an empty Dome that made a lot of people mad because victory made firing the coach harder.... an atmosphere we can totally recreate Saturday!

That single game in the Toledo "era" was last year’s rout. Coach Toledo has given us many, many low points- but that whipping last year was perhaps the lowest. I ranted:

This is embarrassing- this display in Florida. I’ve never been ashamed of Tulane- but this effort today... it is hard not to be furious.

I remember those Toledo-nauts belittling the doubters- “Coach Toledo is teaching Tulane how to win”. Remember that ‘nauts!? Well, he sure as heck taught them to quit. Toledo is a joke.

Quitters. Quit on their school, fans, coach and families.

We fans don't quit. We send money, attend repeated ruthless beatings... and this "performance" is the result. Are you kidding me Toledo?

UCF is not 50 points better than Tulane. Period. It takes laying down like dogs to get beat like that by this mediocre C-USA outfit.

Perhaps colored by that beating, the New York Post generously puts UCF -17 over Tulane this morning.

This line has seesawed all over the place, jumping between 15 to 20 markers, largely due to the unknown status of Tulane’s improving quarterback Ryan Griffin. Consequently, one has to make that determination first, and I am supposing that Ryan Griffin won’t play.

Which sort of pushed this game out of the realm of an x’s and o’s question to a psychological test: can Tulane put together the sort of effort required to hang around here?

I’m not encouraged. Frankly, the Rice win was not the mark of anything resembling momentum or improvement. There was nothing there indicative of football things that Tulane could recreate routinely in the absence of the Rice Owls: the impact wide receivers, the numerous turnovers. The two remaining late season story lines emerging are not encouraging: the wide outs aren’t very good and the defense looks increasingly worn down. Let's remember the meltdown in the second half versus SMU and the astonishing 95 points scored on the Wave the last two games.

Last week loss to Southern Miss aside, UCF is the class of the League this year. Unfortunately, the Knights also tons to play for here- which equates to good effort and scoring the ball. QB Jeff Godfrey is one of the top true freshmen in the whole country- and my pick as newcomer of the year in C-USA. He is one of those distribution quarterbacks (65% pass completion percentage) who is mobile (505 yards rushing) that make Tulane’s slow perimeter defenders look so terrible.

Opposing skill players have been just outrunning the Wave’s OLBs and corners to the play- and Jeff Godfrey is a guy who can either throw to the seams and flats or carry it there himself (ed. note: he is also the shortest, smallest quarterback I've seen in awhile). Add in talented RB Ronnie Weaver as a nifty complementary option (12 carries-112 yards last week) who can also easily get outside and I simply can’t find any reason, any executable agenda, that suggests this week is where the Wave defense rebounds, holds a team under 40.

And I worry about the offense. Kevin Moore isn’t terrible at all- he is actually a very good option as a back-up goes. He's experienced (400+ career attempts, 14 TDs), seen the elephant, won’t be scared. But who is he going to throw to in this motley assortment of receivers? UCF is going to have tons of guys in the box, targeting Darkwa. It will be a hard road to 20 points.

Add in the requisite special teams disasters, return game follies and this is a game where Tulane figures to get drilled. The Wave has simply not handled prosperity well the past two years, losing every game by two scores or more after a win this year and featuring really poor play in 2009 losses to Rice and Marshall last year after the Wave's two FBS wins. Feels like a whipping again. I’ll take UCF -17 over Tulane in the attempt to run the ATS mark to 7-4.

A Second Game Versus Knights

Well, the Rice Owls stung Frank Helps You Think It All Out- using a semi-garbage time score to cost us our backdoor cover. This drops the blog to 7-3 ATS (straight up versus McNeese State)- and I’ll look to get the game back looking at Tulane +22 over UCF.

UCF? I struggle to remember the Knights. It has been a long time since they played. One nice thing about the blog is that it is old enough to act as a sort of archive. Tulane did beat UCF in the Dome a few years back when, like Army this year, the Knights missed a very make-able field goal to win the game.

Reading that old post, I was struck at how similar this encounter feels. Just like that game, these last two tilts are not unimportant for Tulane. Get a fourth win on Saturday- well, that would make them a not altogether bad 4-5 in games versus their class (ex-BYU and ex-LSU- with one still to play). This Tulane fan would see it as a sign of some progress if they could play something near .500 against C-USA level competition for a whole season. For one thing, it is an argument Tulane couldn’t make, something near .500 versus their peers, since beating UCF three years ago.

So, on to the Knights. The 6-4 Knights have swept out the bad C-USA outfits they’ve faced this year: blew Rice out, a solid win over Memphis, squeezed by Marshall by one. They’ve played two other suspect out of conference outfits- narrowly beating Samford and Buffalo.

That is five games against bleah teams- and only one effort that would cover the 20: Rice. And I’m not sure that cover is real relevant. As the Tulane fan knows, the Owl quarterback has found himself a little, made his team a whole notch better, the past two weeks.

Even more encouragingly, Tulane has not been blown out since their own quarterback stepped up two games ago. Further, Tulane has scored a very good 68 points in these two games. Marshall, Memphis, Buffalo and Samford scored well into the 20s here- why can’t Tulane? Put together another competent day from Ryan, one hundred pedestrian yards for the third week in a row from Andre- there is a formula for three TDs, at a minimum, versus this “just okay” Knights defense.

It is hard to reach 45 points- and get the needed 22 point separation- if Tulane is possessing the ball enough to score 24. Worse, in the sense of chasing a big number, UCF is probably inclined to rush the football here. Play it safe, get Brynn Harvey 35 carries again this week, run the game clock, and grind the Wave into dust. But again, that is not a Knight game plan designed to chase a large number in the 40s.

The Knights just don’t strike me as a team that is good enough on offense to get a certain three TD edge- particularly on a Tulane team frankly playing a little better on offense (at least at the all important C-USA quarterback position) as the season progresses. 22 is a big head start- I’ll take Tulane and the points and root for the clock.