Don't Tase Me Bro'

As a passionate Philadelphia fan, I assure you many of us in Section 204 at the Linc simply need a good tasing once in awhile.

Did Ovechkin Even Play Yesterday?

Some not so bad hockey played between Philadelphia and Washington this weekend. The United States' version of the Swedish Elite League certainly picks up the play come April. At the very least, the North American players look engaged again.

Vis-à-vis the Flyers, while it is a big disappointing to take a pair of two-goal leads into the third period- and come out with only one win, the Flyers got their needed road win in this match-up with the Capitals.

Jeez- but these are teams with flaws. Maybe not Toronto or Tampa Bay-sized flaws, but still... Watching the Flyers defense melt down in the third period of Game 1, it is hard to have sustained confidence in that unit. Heck, as inopportune as Washington’s offense was in Game 2, there were still very long periods where the Flyers ran around inside their blueline for sustained periods.

And Washington is so dependent on their ability to counter-punch. The Flyers seem to be able to control play along the dashers with their second, third and fourth line for long stretches- and they win all the face-offs. Makes it hard for Washington to generate offense- thus the repeated long stretches without shots and chances. The Caps are sort of like the Iverson-era Sixers. There are some good role players, but for juice they need the other team to help them or the stars (Ovechkin/Green) to do something. For a high-scoring team, they’re kinda passive.

Still, the weekend was a net plus for Philadelphia for two reasons. First, I know the chic thinking in the NHL is to dismiss “home ice” advantage. Well, some think that- but Vegas (and I) do not. I do know Washington was a Vegas favorite for both Game 1 and 2- and will not be for Game 3 and 4. Even if the Flyers split these home games, they’ve probably forced the series deep, compelled Washington to probably have to win a Game 6 or 7 (come on Hatcher!). And, that is what an underdog wants, right? Philadelphia wants to play a best-of-three, not best-of-seven. And as I wrote in the preview: the longer the series, the more the Flyers genuine up-front depth has to play a positive factor.

Second, the shut out has to help. The play-offs go right by you, real quick. A one-game scoring slump gets to be a two-game, three-game super-problematic slump right quick. I mean, the Flyers went two periods yesterday without a goal, and Biron/Prospal went all three- and there is already yammering in Philadelphia about scoring.

I dunno; I got the feeling a times Washington was already starting to press, to look for the perfect play on offense: six shots in the third period? none in the final seven minutes? Plus, these endless one-minute plus shifts for Ovechkin. Just stupid, no one other than Jagr can play fifteen of those- no wonder Alex was a non-factor late. And going on the road, confidence in your ability to put the puck in the net won’t grow easily. For one, Ovechkin figures to see more Timonen, and that staggering courage for a Finn- not less.

I also think, counterintuitively, the Flyers indirectly helped themselves with those four first period minors. Again, if they’re not taking a few obstruction/dirty/running into Huet penalties, they’re not being aggressive enough. Early in games, “Hartnell for cross-checking”, is not a total loss. The Flyers need aggression. Washington has more skill; Philadelphia needs more calculated violence, ill-humor. No whistles without scrums.

Your 2007 NFC East Champions!

Sitting here, pondering- no deep feelings appear. Frankly? The Philadelphia Eagles just don’t feel like any sort of great mystery this year. The facts are straightforward. Late last season during the play-off stretch drive, Philadelphia played all three division opponents on the road- and defeated each in increasingly capable performances. Moreover, they defeated the Giants in a tough overtime play-off game. Taken together, it seems compelling evidence that the rebuilding project, off the 2005 disappointment, continues apace.

The play-off loss in New Orleans- on the road, six day week, with the back-up quarterback- was encouraging as well. Honestly, I am not sure if New Orleans or Chicago would have been favored in a play-off game in Philadelphia. Was there ultimately much difference between the top teams in the NFC last year?

And to be frank, I’m pretty sure that is true again this year. With the return of McNabb, I will take a lot of convincing to believe that any of the NFC East teams have closed the gap. The Eagles would likely be favored to win this division even if Feeley was the quarterback. I imagine the Eagles are square in the mix with what passes for an NFC power these days- and still a clear step behind the AFC elite.

But past that, essentially a sort of repeat of 2006- resounding division championship, in the NFC mix- I am less confident. Looking back at my post mortem for the 2005 campaign, I was struck at just how big the rebuilding job was. And it simply isn’t finished yet. Of the major areas of concern: defensive front, linebacker, wide receiver, kick returners and interior offensive line- only the offensive needs seems addressed in total (particularly the offensive line).

The defensive front is short a few productive bodies. Worse, some of the existing bodies are either injury prone or young and unproven. It probably is a bad unit. The linebackers are certainly better than 2005- but lack seasoning and are counting on some “hope” in both the injury and experience department- and are probably short a body here too. Add questions about Considine- particularly in the problematic run-stuffing effort- and it is hard to see the defense being a good unit. Teams won’t be able to generate big plays in the passing game regularly against the secondary- which will mitigate any real bad tendencies. But the defense’s upside is merely “okay-plus”- and more likely will be exposed some Sundays.

I just can’t shake the feeling that this merely is year two of the two year reconstruction- that this team is pointed toward runs in 2008 and 2009. I know certainty is an impossible thing is professional sports. But I also know that Reid is all about the plan- and Andy is quite capable of convincing himself and acting accordingly (perhaps correctly) that the “best” window is still a year or two ahead. The turnover in key nucleus talent only has had but one campaign in which to be evaluated and tweaked. Maybe this is a year to further establish the young corps at wide receiver, offensive line, figure exactly which of these guys on the defensive front seven can play- and who needs to be replaced by the impact free agent. The quarterback can still make one more run- let’s get to 2008 before we push all the chips, make the big signing.

I went into camp thinking 11-12 wins- but as Rich Hoffman says, August has not been too kind and special teams questions at punter, long snapper and the return game will cost them one, even two games, this season. So now, I am square on nine, maybe ten wins. Don’t get me wrong. The NFC isn’t strong- so the Eagles very real professional competence makes them a player in the conference picture- particularly if they get thirty starts from Westbrook and McNabb combined. But there isn’t enough here to dominate NFC or anything past that.

Disheartened

I woke up this morning thoroughly disheartened. There is so much going wrong right now that I can’t keep up. The Sixers blow the draft. Three picks in the first round- and King can’t emerge with one player (one!) who will help in the next two years or, worse and worse, who can play for sure. The Flyers are throwing big money at multiple free agents (three now!) who either are or will be well in to their 30s for most of their contracts.

Big money to aging players- paying players into their 30's for their achievement in their late 20's- is surest road to ruin in pro-sports. Of the three, I can almost guarantee two will disappoint- simply because no one ever plays better after 32-33 years of age than before. Something like nine guys in baseball history have better average numbers after 33 than before.

But that can all wait until fall. The biggest joke in Philadelphia was the Phillies this weekend. That made me mad. I kind of have been off their case this year- as I never thought they were a serious threat to be much better than a little better than .500. And at 42-40, I guess they were I thought they would be. Can't get crazy about that.

But this was a joke. A huge four game series with the Mets- a chance to justify the season- and all the Phillies can scrape up is J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and- heck I can't even rememebr that guy's name.

That is institutional failure. Period. Someone should be fired. A major league team, with that building and their revenue, cannot throw out triple AAA slop night and night after night in that sort of spot. It cannot get to that. Ever. It was embarrassing.

I’m not talking about running J.C. Romero, Brian Sanches, Mike Zagurski and Antonio Alfonseca out to shut the door on the Mets. They’re just bad or unproven- but at least you can weave some sort of story, no matter how weak, that they can help win games. They're not good- but it isn't surrender.

But the starting pitching… you know, the Phillies have some sort of an obligation to the League to at least try to field a major league team- which is not really square-able with the rotation options the Phillies presented their fans, opponents and the Braves (who foolishly assumed the Phillies were at least trying to win games against a key divisional rival) with this weekend. They were a joke. At least at 4-10 the club was trying. The front office didn’t try this week. Gillick was not prepared; he sent out garbage and purposely tanked the weekend in front of big crowds. And not trying is the cardinal affront in pro-sports. And I’m mad about it.

Trial

Jeff Garcia is back in the papers today- playing golf or something- but since he was doing it with McNabb it is what passes for news. I guess because the story came out before the Flyers decided they’d rather compete next seasons as Nashville. Yo Flyers' guys- we still have too many Finns!

Now, I am sympathetic to Jeff Garcia here- up to a point. He had a great year, played out a great story, for half a year in Philadelphia. Press and fans were sure Jeff deserved a term as caddy to Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia. And leaving such a great situation- really tailored for Garcia- had to distress him some.

But I never for a moment thought he’d be coming back- and it was pretty obvious the Eagles from Day One thought that too. I am not going to re-hash all the reasons- see the post- but quickly:

We know Andy Reid thinks AJ Feeley can play and serve as a very effective back-up. Heck, he’s already won in that role under Reid here before. Throw in the fact AJ’s younger and cheaper, and Garcia’s retention was always unlikely. Also, from the moment the season ended, the Eagles clearly were taking a first day quarterback in this draft- which means that guy was ticketed soon for a role on the active roster. With McNabb’s recent inability to finish a season, the Eagles were not entering 2007 without a back-up they think can play and a high round draft choice to develop. That is three qbs who aren't just roster filler, one making franchise wages and two making qb money (ie. higher than average for a non-starting roster spot), and tieing up even more money at the back up quarterback position for Garcia- at the expense of the cost effective AJ- becomes problematic.

You can’t feel too sorry for Garcia- who has gone from being washed up to making $5 million as the starting quarterback-to-be in Tampa. Both sides got what they wanted- and it is hard to argue the separation now isn’t in the interest of both parties.

Ardor Cooled Successfully

Micah Owings- a proud son of Tulane- is aptly described in today’s Daily News: Owings, a legitimate power threat - he hit .335 with 33 homers his last 2 years at Tulane and later tripled in the sixth.

I guess pitching five innings of one-run ball doesn’t merit much mention when a National League pitcher flashes a thunder bat. Also, he’s left handed- and the Phillies just kinda take the night off when a semi-quality lefty strolls to the hill- so Micah loses points right there too. I mean, a LHP really ought to turn in seven-eight innings of dominating baseball against the Phillies to be considered pitching “well”.

Gosh, the Phillies have done their level best to cool the ardor of the fan base after their glorious sweep of Atlanta- by reverting back to the quality of play they exhibited just a week ago in Florida: endless errors, guys getting caught stealing down four runs, more and better and interesting bullpen meltdowns.

It is a long season- and if you wanted to humiliate a Phillies team that figured to be a little flat after their big weekend- you might try throwing a pair of solid lefties at them surrounded by a hot ballclub. It worked here certainly. And frankly, Leiber been darn good as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter; he’s probably allowed a bad one without me killing him. That is part and parcel of being a slightly better than .500 club- faced with good starting pitching, or you play poorly, you’re gonna lose two in a row a lot. And what you did the series before has little to do with the series you’re in. The Phillies are good…. sometimes.

I won’t rehash today’s other article in the PDN- which centers on the above factoid: LHP pitching kills us. I will say that obviously Howard (.133 versus lefties) can’t sit against LHPs- but would it hurt so bad to move him out of the freakin’ four hole until he figures it out again?

We Love You Phillies- In Spite of Ourselves

The Phillies continue to do what they’ve done best in the Charlie Manuel era- which is sort of meander directionlessly with a slight bias toward just north of break even. Case in point: a stretch of good play against bottom division opponents Florida and Washington. Don’t dismiss a stretch of 4-2 against bad clubs- play .600 against the bad teams and .500 against the good one- and you get to 90 wins. But that important latter point about breaking even against good clubs.... well, the Phillies can’t beat the Braves or the Mets half the time- which is why they are an 83-84 win team.

More directionlessness? Well, how can the loss of Gordon for three weeks not be seen as a short term plus?- and further, how many teams can realistically say the loss for three weeks of their closer probably helps in the short term? That is true irony- the kind the Phillies specialize in. Gordon could be a plus relief pitcher- but he simply isn’t a plus closer. Moving Myers to the closer role could be a plus, right? Additionally, since they refuse to use Gordon in a role where he could be a plus (out of the ‘pen earlier, situationally, etc.)- for the next few weeks they subtract only a true minus from the closer role in return for adding a potential plus. Yes, losing a major league bullpen arm hurts long term- but short term it probably works out for the best.

The loss last night to Atlanta, and well as the loss to Washington last week that cost them a sweep, were particular frustrating- as both games meant a win would have brought them within one game of .500 and were against starting pitchers that could be beat. They failed both times- now sit at three under even-stevens. One game under meant a series win squared the mark and a May spent chasing the Mets and Braves- the current three under means they’ll spend most of May trying to get to .500 even if they play well. Put it this way- this hard seven game trip out west- and the probable three up, four down- means it is almost mid-May, four under .500.

I guess that is just it- they aren’t as good as Atlanta and not good enough to step on the Nats. That is third place people.

Phillies Meander Apace Part 3

The good folks over at Beerleaguer have put together a nice collection of the major guides- and their selections for the Phillies this season. I look at them and feel so disconnected, disheartened. Because I look at the Phillies and think “third place”- which means around .500, firings and disappointment.

I can’t find the rational argument that says the Phillies have closed the twelve game gap on the Mets. Maybe the Phils are better somewhat rotation-wise, but New York is loaded offensively (just like us!) and their bullpen is not horrid. The Braves are like the Phillies in one respect- they enter the season as a product everyone knows requires adjustments. Which franchise do you trust more to manage the roster and the season? To make the right trade? To play the right guys? To get young players contributing quickly? Charlie had Howard batting sixth, seventh last year until June- which is all you need to know about that institutional inteligence question. And one thing the Braves don’t share with the Phillies- their bullpen didn’t sport an ERA over eight for most of the spring.

You know what? Let’s just gloss over the ‘pen woes and the fact the manager is widely considered a game day liability. Let’s look past it.

Let’s start with the position players. They got real great years out of Utley and Howard- but outside of the right side of the infield, just who is a certain above average major league player? I guess Rollins- but the Phillies have manages to turn that plus into a minus. The lead-off spot is a problem with Rollins there. He simply doesn’t get on enough. Period. Every outfield spot is a question of health or performance- plus add several guys who don’t have the right aptitude to hit where they do in the line-up: do Burrell or Rowand have the big RBI bat and health to consider their line-up spots a positive?

Third base and catcher are a total prayer.

We know the bench and bullpen must be terrible- this seemingly 12-13 pitcher collection that should appear north at some point in April is sign of either a problematic bullpen construction or a lack of quality bench players- or more likely: both!

The NY Post polled general mangers around the Major Leagues asking them what current roster players are in decline- and the Phillies had three of the top ten: Rowand, Garcia and Gordon. How can you argue with any of that? Those who read this blog know I think Aaron Rowand is the most overrated Phillies player in a long time. He hustles but won't we all be content to trade him in June for a quality middle relief arm?- run Victorino out there and not lose much (like last year!)- and he’s an important, quality player? The White Sox dumped Garcia because the risk-reward is all wrong with that guy: he makes good money, he doesn’t throw hard anymore and his shoulder is worn. The less said about Flash, the better. Wing and a prayer people every time Flash gets up this year- and worse, what are the options?

The rotation is encouraging. There is still no top guy- but there are several candidates to win 12-15 games- and one could have a career 18-win year, as the Phillies will score runs- which is all you can ask.

Again, they are the third best outfit in the division- which normally means .500 or work and luck to flirt with better: 84-85 wins. I’m not sold on the Marlins renaissance- and the Nats are 115-loss bad- so there may be your luck. So that is my number: 84-85, third place.

Clinton Portis Gets Some Bad News

Well, well, well... the Eagles moved, shall we say, aggressively, to shore up the linebacker situation. You know they really perceived a problem there- as they hate to spend money on ‘backers- and now they got two earning north of $4 million.

Certainly the Eagles got the singular better talent and the upside: Takeo Spikes is a great player when healthy. But Buffalo got rid of a lot of risk- a huge financial commitment to a guy who hasn’t played very much at the high level indicated by his contract for two years. So moving past who got the better of the deal- the more relevant question is “was it a good trade?” or “does it help?” I think it probably is and does.

First, Takeo Spikes can’t possible be worse than Dhani Jones- who was not only the worst linebacker in the NFC East playing regularly (for two years now!) but also the worst regular on the football team. Darwin Walker was a serviceable defensive tackle- a position where serviceable players are a premium. But the Eagles have depth, provided by young players with escalating contracts who need to play there to justify their financial commitment level- and the fact that Walker is a decent player at a premium position made him a chip that could be leveraged.

The money thing is a little less onerous than it looks on paper. Walker is scheduled to make $1.3 million this season (and realistically had to be traded or extended- so you have to count him really for more than that) and Dhani Jones something near that- plus a missing contract for the draft pick- probably absorbs two-thirds of what they are expecting to pay Spikes to jack up Portis and Eli.

Candidly? They dealt from strength to fill a problem- and consequently, the Eagles hand simply looks better at the ‘backer position. Every guy projected to be there: Trotter, Spikes, Omar Gaither, Chris Gocong, the certain to come first day draft pick- has issues- but now a whole lot less needs to “go right” to get an upgraded serviceable rotation out of that mix. And if Spikes plays like he did late in 2006 for a whole season, they might be darn good.

The Eagles could mess up their run in 2008 with the old mix of linebackers- and as importantly, the departure of Walker isn’t costing them a game one way or the other. Either Patterson, Bunkley, Reagor can play and contribute or can’t- Walker wasn’t going to tip the equation of quality defensive tackle play one way or the other.

Can't Win With Swedes

You can move right past Rich Hofmann’s moronic piece today in the Philadelphia Daily News (Yes, Rich, we fans want to know if there is cheating in the sports we watch. Nice Floyd Landis joke. Jeez.) and move right to the Peter Forsberg trade.

I never for a minute believed the Flyers weren’t going to trade Forsberg the minute he picked up his game enough to get someone to hand them a bunch of prospects and future considerations. One thing was for sure- they weren’t getting any established talent for a guy who is hurt all the time featuring no contract going forward. In a way, that is sort of proof that Forsberg represents risk- and the Flyers need less roster risk more than anything right else right now. Getting three potential building blocks for 2009 and a current NHL “project” is a square deal.

Look, the Flyers have numerous problems. But the overriding issue is a lack of quantity- they don’t lack pieces as much as a wholesale 24-28 guys who actually belong in the NHL. They need a general infusion of talent- they don’t need a top defenseman as much as they need say, five quality defensemen.

Consequently, I am more encouraged by the prospect of obtaining a potential quantity of NHL players who belong than getting that same “A” defensemen. Or keeping an “A” forward (i.e. Forsberg). A play-off team fills holes. But the Flyers simply could not risk one of their key assets either not returning, or returning at this level of "never ending ennui", if they could add potential solid bodies to the roster over the next three years.