Meet The Unbalanced Line

As part of an ongoing tradition here, I am turning Frank Helps You Think It All Out over to The Unbalanced Line. He is answering questions I posed- and a reciprocal exchange is posted over at his site:
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Last year you editorialized:

“Army plays Tulane today... Along with Rutgers, I believe that this rivalry should be developed in the long-term.”

I enjoyed this series too- but I am up in the air of the merits of continuing. Of all the teams in I-A, you pick Tulane? Why?

The Unbalanced Line: Of the teams on this year's schedule, Tulane is only Army's 5th most played opponent. Navy, Notre Dame, Air Force, Rutgers and Duke all have significant series against the Cadets. In terms of all Div. 1-A teams it might surprise that Tulane is 10th on the list Army's most played opponents.

The Army/Tulane series began in 1958 and Tulane is the only Conference USA team that Army played more than once before they joined the conference and is the only CUSA team that Army has continued scheduling regularly since leaving CUSA.

The other teams on USMA's most played teams list either actively play Army, or have stopped scheduling the academy years ago.

Army's most played opponents are these:

Team Games Record vs.
Navy (110) 49-54-7
Notre Dame (49) 8-37-4
Air Force (44) 13-30-1
Boston College (36) 12-24-0
Rutgers (36) 18-18-0
Pittsburgh (27) 6-19-2
Penn State (25) 10-13-2
Syracuse (21) 10-11-0
Duke (22) 10-11-1
Tulane (17) 7-9-1
Stanford (10) 5-5-0
Michigan (9) 5-4-0

Penn State (last game 1979), Pitt (1983), Michigan (1962), Stanford (1975) and Syracuse (1996) have for the most part moved on from their respective series. A suppose a lot of that is on Army for seeking out a lighter slate of games. In the context of scheduling competitive games and a desirable series my first thought in Div 1-A is Tulane. New Orleans presents a legitimate jump-off point for non-Texas southern recruiting trips.

An eighteen game series with Army shouldn't constitute a rivalry game to most Tulane fans considering the Green Wave's long history with the SEC, but from Army's perspective as an independent - it's the year 2010 - I think seeking out and building viable traditions and rivalries is far more important than skipping around D1-A taking any old paycheck game or scheduling home and homes with teams like Marshall. Nothing against Marshall, but in my eyes that trip just doesn't complement Army's schedule. Tulane and New Orleans do, and I look forward to this game every year.

Through five weeks of college football, no list of “most improved” would be complete without Army. What few things are most improved?

The Unbalanced Line: I could carry on all day about Army's improvement. Most notably, Army's offense is sustaining drives and scoring points. Last year the team had a difficult time doing anything with the football and the whole year it kind of seemed that the offense just wasn't comfortable in its own skin. Looking at 2010 the comparison is night and day. Army’s 2010 points per game through the first 5 games simply doubles last year's average; 30.6 ppg up from 15.3 ppg.

A lot of that comes with having such a veteran unit. To my knowledge, Army's starting five O-linemen have played every offensive snap of the season. That not only speaks to their ability, but to their experience as well.

The Black Knights are running an actual fullback this year with the addition of Air Force transfer Jared Hassin. He's a tough player who can endure the rigors of the position. It's the nature of the flexbone offense that the fullback will get drilled on every play and Hassin is a definite step up at fullback from last year's reliance on the more speedy guys that are better suited finding the edge as slotbacks.

This year's Army team is playing actual football - and playing to win. Last year in every game it kind of seemed like the team's scheme was held together with duct tape. In 2009 the team appeared to be a football team, and they were definitely playing the game of football - but things just had a feel like they could unravel at any time. This year is completely different, you will see a much sharper Army team on Saturday (well, at least for those who plan on attending the game will.)

Army opens as a slight road favorite. Your game prediction?

The Unbalanced Line: I don't normally do predictions, but I'll give it a guess. Without knowing the status of some of Army's key defensive pieces... I like Army's chances to control the clock and I'll pick the Black Knights 27-17.

Thanks for having me aboard for this guest post it’s been a lot of fun. Good luck and enjoy the game!

Prediction Thursday

Before starting, tomorrow we will have a special guest post from The Unbalanced Line- my fellow BlogPoll voter who covers Army. There is a good bit about the history of Tulane-Army, so be sure to check here tomorrow in the AM.

Obviously we can't have a guest today- because it is time for Prediction Thursday. In a sign of this blog’s durability, I have already picked five Tulane-Army tilts: 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. The mark ATS is a perfect 5-0 in those games, plus 4-0 ATS this year. So pay attention folks.

The New York Post, official line supplier to Prediction Thursday, lists Tulane -1 over Army- a flip flop from Army -1 earlier in the week. This is perhaps not surprising. Both teams can lay claim to the somewhat dubious title of “most improved train wreck from 2009”.

I’ll be straightforward. Much like last year, I like Tulane in this spot.

After last year’s game, I waggishly wrote that DT Oscar Ponce de Leon would never have to worry what was the finest game he played in his Tulane career. He utterly wrecked Army’s option offense last year.

Fifth year senior Ponce de Leon is a somewhat atypical C-USA defensive tackle. In a League that prizes mobility over raw size and strength, Ponce de Leon suffers getting to the quarterback (he has half a sack in his career!) or supporting the edge. He is a sort of 1980s NFL-style tackle- the era of Refrigerator Perry and the like. He owns the real estate under him, but occasionally not much else.

But when defending this option, when you must stop the dives and plays around the center gaps, Ponce de Leon is invaluable. He was awesome versus Army last year- plugging the center of the field.

The Cadets could not move him. Those wide o-line splits they love got narrower and narrower, more and more Wave defenders cheated to the exterior, and Army’s option died. Tulane was terrible on defense last year, but kept Army’s vaunted rushing attack to 3.5 yards a pop.

Army touts the stability of its offen sive line as a strength, but to me it means the Cadets return the same cast of characters up front that could not do anything with the Wave defense last year. Main actors Reed (okay), Peterson (not okay) and Merzi (pretty okay at guard, problematic at tackle) just aren’t a very good unit. Army could not block them last year; I doubt they will this year either.

Worse for the Cadets, the source of Tulane’s improvement is further reinforcements to the defensive front, middle linebacker and improved safety play. Tulane is quite good against the run inside. They still lack good perimeter defenders- corners and OLBs- but Army doesn’t throw effectively enough to stop the Wave from cheating the safeties all over the place.

Following that thought, if you wanted to design a team to give the Wave-problems, it would a pass-first team (exploit the lack of defensive backfield speed) with running backs that could catch passes in the flats (exploit the OLBs coverage and tackling issues). Conversely, to make Army nuts, I would seek to speed up the defense (to get to those mis-direction, outside the OTs, rushing attempts) and increase the importance of the forward pass (which Army is loathe to attempt).

Which is exactly what playing in the antiseptic, quick turf Dome does. Army dodged the Dome in 2008 (routing Tulane on, ugh, natural grass). But in 2006, Tulane dumped like 500 yards of offense on them. It literally took Army like 45 game minutes to get acclimated to the speed at which receivers could run and the accuracy and depth with which quarterbacks could throw.

The Dome rewards the forward pass. And Tulane QB Ryan Griffin is more equipped to deliver that than any Army alternative(s). Albeit raw, Griffin is the spread prototype- high completion percentage, spread the ball, no turnovers. Army’s defensive backfield is much slower than the recent versions on display versus Houston, Mississippi and Rutgers. Those missing YAC totals will surface this week- and Griffin finally has a C-USA style defensive backfield that will not always stay up, catch up or be able to react quickly to a missed play in the secondary.

Army is improved- but this is a bad match up for them. It feels a lot like the 2006 pick frankly (gosh, the blog really is old). The venue, nature of Tulane’s interior defense and quarterback disparity are problematic for Army. They lose by at least ten. I’ll try to move the season mark ATS to a perfect 5-0 by taking Tulane -1 over Army.

On How To Handle Prosperity

Well, I guess rain makes it look like football. Gumbo in the rain, along the Hudson River, is very restorative. And speaking or restoratives going down easy, the Tulane Green Wave will now face a new challenge: handling prosperity. Their 17-16 win over Army at West Point makes it two wins in a row- and squares the season mark.

Sure, Tulane is better than Army- and not by a little either. But as always, the kicking follies: blocked punts, missed FGs, kick-offs out of bounds- plus other special teams follies (why is it the more the more important the kick-off return, the more likely it being returned 40+ yards?). Ross Thevenot had a horrid game until the last FG.

And, as always, “personal foul is how we roll”. Can’t maul the kicker in a one score game. Can’t take a selfish, emotional penalty after a huge turnover. A sloppy turnover, many penalties and a bad kicker almost turned this into a loss- except Army features the exact same three problems!

Junior DT Oscar Ponce de Leon will never in his life have to wonder what was his best game at Tulane. Army tried everything: run at him, double-team him, run away from him- and he just held his place inside. The reason Army’s offense fell apart more and more throughout the day is Oscar would not be moved inside, the ‘backers were free to move further and further to the edges of the box to compensate for their lack of speed to the edge and to deal with Army wide OL splits. Those run to the tackle and off-tackle plays ceased to work once Oscar single-handedly clogged the middle and killed any fullback-style dives.

Robottom has to do more than almost make a potential horrid bonehead special teams contribution (mishandling a rolling punt everyone else managed to get away from) if Tulane is going to win four games. He is a horse, get him the ball. I don’t understand why he is one the punt return anyway- everyone else manages to get by with one guy back there, Tulane wants Banks to get touches- what is the problem?

The quarterback is getting better. It is kind of fun to watch Kemp grow- almost like T. Jones in the 80s (Shaun King arrived God-like). He is much maligned- but he is completing 2/3rds of his throws. Army was committed to forcing him to throw yesterday- they were all over Anderson from the get go. And, while far from a finished product, Kemp made repeated, on target, low risk throws- plus he made a play or two stepping up, and threw a few gorgeous balls outside the numbers (the first TD pass was excellent).

My only bone with defense is, again, some thing bad happens and they immediately turtle. Just once, I’d like to see them rise up and stop someone after a blocked punt, etc. Against a good team, a blocked punt cannot turn into ten minutes of mailase and ten unanswered points every single week.

Bottom line: like last week, any win is a good one around here. But I thought after Tulsa and BYU, I had seen nothing that made me move off 4-8. And after McNeese State and Army, I have seen nothing to move me off 4-8. There is still a long way to go to match the firepower generated by say UTEP and Houston yesterday. But, the Wave seems a whole step better than last year, that is solid improvement.

Did Army Score 50 Last Year?

The New York Post puts Army -6.5 over Tulane for Saturday’s tilt up at West Point. Perhaps it is the ongoing glow, a sort recurrent optimism, emanating from the Phillies third straight NL East crown, but I like Tulane here on Prediction Thursday.

Not an easy pick, mind you. Under Toledo, I always get this impression that Tulane is easy to play against. I don’t mean in the sense that they don’t run enough trick plays, etc. I mean regular football stuff: they commit a dozen penalties every game because they don’t line up right, have the correct guys on the field or lack the discipline to stay on-sides. The “manage-the-game” qb throws multiple picks. The bigger the kick-off return the more likely it is to go for a score.

No one has pressed those buttons harder than Army: last year’s utter shellacking at Homecoming and the Wave’s complete late fourth quarter unraveling in 2007. Toledo has been badly outcoached in both games- and the team was utterly unprepared last year. On the road, in the forecasted rain, down a score or two early, this could get to “start the bus” territory before half.

Here, my optimism is centered on the fact I just don’t think Army is that good. Their last two homes games featured indifferent opposition- Ball State and Duke- that Army could not blow out. Throw in some bad weather, indifferent Cadet quarterback play (not one quarterback has ten total completions for the season?!)- and Army is no lock to get to 30 points. For one thing, they haven’t this year.

And the Cadets will need to score. Throw out Tulane’s efforts versus Tulsa and BYU- two outfits that present a whole different class of defenders than Army. Frankly, I’m not sure Army is a whole class better than McNeese either- which means Tulane should be able to rush for a big number here and thus score some. Tulane can put up four touchdowns, rush for close to 200 yards. They can get some big plays from a pair of skill players (Robottom and Williams) I don’t think Army can cover out on the perimeter. Plus, Army plays that same sort of curious special teams we play. Points, plus ball control (did you know the much maligned Kemp is completing almost 70% of his passes), maybe bad weather- and it will be hard for Army to get two scores separation- heck, let alone outright win.

I normally would be worried about yet another ragged performance from the defense- particularly with a new MLB coming in to play versus a real tricky offense. But if Tulane can’t suck it up here and play hard- against a team that utterly humiliated them last year- when are they ever going to come to play?

Ultimately, I just don’t think the Wave is a two win disaster like last year. The Green Wave defense is probably terrible- but the quarterback is not an absolute zero and the troika of Anderson, Williams and Robottom is pretty good. And if they are a four-ish win team, like I expect, this is a game they ought to be in until the end. Plus, you get 6.5 points.

I’ll take them gladly, give me Tulane +6.5 over Army.

Army Disaster

First of all, I had a great week in Louisiana. Super weather. I loved Bayou Teche and its environs. I napped a lot on boats. Many bugs. Sportsman’s Paradise indeed. Good job Louisiana and its denizens.

As to the game. Oddly, I am inclined to give Tulane a semi-pass this weekend. At left, Toledo seems concerned about a pending special teams play.

Look, I have the Wave at a “fair” over/under of 3.5- and certainly after this weekend, I’m not inclined to move off that number. And yes, after Saturday, those folks calling for eight or more are probably in for some disappointment.

But you know, looking back to last year, the Wave had split their last ten outings right down the middle. A lot of things are prone to over thinking. Occam’s Razor would suggest: they’re just a .500 team, helped to that level by a poor schedule, but featuring recent good play ex-special teams. The Green Wave was perhaps a little flush with what passes for success at Tulane. They absorb the big spread and throw out their first real turkey since last year’s UAB/Army stretch. Ten games without a real bad one- they're a college team, perhaps they were due.

Anyway, I'm inclined to think they're more like the team that played the last ten than last weekend's horror show- thus the semi-pass.

Plus, you know, I now get it. This Army outfit, for whatever reason, is a bad match-up for Tulane. The Cadets recent game with Texas A&M, coupled with this win, probably is indicative of a team moving up in class from "horrid" to "pretty bad". I also think Army moves up a lot on grass- slows the game down for their defensive backfield which doesn’t run real well.

Obviously, Tulane doesn’t get a total pass. It was a HUGE loss from a program interest standpoint. People rip on the Gormley experience. But they had a nice crowd with a lot of university representation: alumns, staff, students, administration. I had a great time at the tents. And then to turn that good, three Bloody Mary feeling around- and stink the joint out on such a stage. Brutal. It is back to 3500 Toledo-nauts literally chillin’ in the Dome. Whatever else you think about my observations vis-a-vis Tulane football, after observing Tulane's attendence in the remaining games, everyone will be forced to agree Toledo is an utter failure at the 'naut touted "rekindle fan interest" bullet.

That loss ended any chance of any off-field momentum: attendance, general interest, etc. But perhaps worse, it sets up this UTEP tilt as a real “save the on-field season” tilt- a game that unfortuantely will be on the road against a seemingly improving opponent. Lose it, with LSU and Tulsa still lurking- and a .500 season seems improbable, the six-ish victory crowd thins, and 3.5 wins gets closer and closer.

Spooky! Maybe I’m not inclined to give a big a pass as I thought when I started.

(photo credit)

Donkeys On Parade

I am getting ready to depart for New Orleans, Louisiana to actually witness LIVE! this weekend’s tilt between Tulane and Army. The New York Post puts Tulane up a whopping twenty points- almost three full touchdowns- over the apparently hapless Cadets.

I put the Wave square at 3.5 wins this season- and that forecast is in real danger because of games like this. Tulane has managed to schedule like half-a-dozen of the ten worst teams in America- and like SMU, Army fairly falls into that bucket. I can’t even remember the last time Tulane was favored by two scores in back-to-back weeks.

Tulane is better than this team- as at the very least the Wave is pretty obviously a clear step up from horrid. Still, you have to square a pair of thoughts in your mind before paying this generous price.

First, should Tulane carry this kind of price versus anyone? They couldn’t cover this sort of number last week versus an Army-level SMU team. And Tulane has got to do even more this week. Army is clear a mess- but the Cadets do seem to be improving after their first two disasters. Frankly, I’m not sure Tulane is better than Akron or Texas A&M- and the Army managed to play well enough to cover twenty in both spots. If last week’s Cadets show up, Tulane has no chance to cover this number.

Second, the over/under for this game is 41.5- the second lowest on the board this weekend. Aside from the fact that Army probably has no hope of covering the Green Wave wide-outs, big point totals seem difficult. But Army runs that offense that eats the clock, keeping possessions down- and the Wave is still finding itself on offense, so is that consistency there to get the five-six touchdowns they need? They might get a dozen possessions- and have to score on half? Pretty stiff challenge.

I guess I come down to this: the Tulane team we saw last week played pretty well and couldn’t cover the requisite big number, and the Cadet team that was in evidence last week probably doesn’t lose by three TDs here. So, I’m like last week. I like Tulane to win the game- but probably not by the three score margin implied. I’ll give Army 20, and root for both Tulane and the clock.

Cadets

Saturday features a trip to Army for both our Green Wave and Frank Helps You Think It All Out!

Pretty exciting! Unfortunately, so far, I am just not feeling the Toledo experience. Sure, he is a good quote and a glad-handler of the first order. Clearly Tulane needed more of that. But, I find it exasperating to point to anything on the field- any player, any unit- that is definitively better since he got here. And Vegas seems to agree- putting Army a stout seven points over Tulane- a swing of twelve points from last year. I can only imagine the Toledo-nauts’ reaction had Scelfo “lost” twelve points to Army in a single year.

Scelfo won this game last year. Consequently, it is important game for Tulane- you can’t argue for progress if Toledo and crew are losing absolutely every game Scelfo won last year. Heck, forget a .500 season. If you have Tulane and Coach Sullivan winning, say two I-A games, this is one they probably have to have.

And yet, Tulane is a seven point underdog...

Well, stout hearts, right people?

Seven is a lot of points for a team that could barely handle Rhode Island. At home. Plus, I am a little hopeful for two reasons.

One is that the defensive front showed a sustained pulse for the first time this season. Army’s offense is no great shakes- the 37 points versus Temple were the result of three TDs via specials team and defense and general Temple idiocy- and a mere fourteen first downs versus the Owls is kind of a disgrace. I imagine, unless Tulane is careless with the football and kick coverage, Tulane can keep this team south of 30. To cover seven points, Army needs to win by two scores. And if you can’t get 28+ points- and I don’t think Army can on mere offense alone- that is a forlorn climb.

Second reason: yes, Matt Forte is the most overrated player in the 20 years I’ve followed Tulane football. But Matt normally plays real, real well against these outfits featuring a half-dozen guys playing regularly on defense who might not start at Tennessee-Martin (like Army for example!). Forte should have both a fat and prodigious day, both rushing and as a receiver, against a defensive "front seven" featuring a couple of good I-AA prospects.

150+ yards rushing, plus some chain moving receptions from Forte and wide-outs who figure to open a lot, suggests Tulane will score and move the clock. This both protects the defense and again serves to keep the Army point total down. Plus, sustained rushing success will keep both the rush off and “pressure to do everything” from young Scelfo.

Add in the requisite turnovers from a pretty bad Army team, and the fact that their kickers are worse than ours- and I sense Tulane is no lock to be out of this by the requisite two scores. Not a lay-up like last year- but I like Tulane in this spot. So I’ll take Tulane and the seven points.