Thursday, November 06, 2008

The Wave Could Hang In

No team has tortured the Tulane Green Wave over the past few campaigns than the Houston Cougars- one utterly hopeless dispiriting blowout after another.

This year, many ingredients are in place for a repeat performance. Houston, like all plus C-USA teams, can bring the offensive thunder. They absolutely can score in bunches: 37 versus Oklahoma State, 41 versus ECU, hung 44 on the Mustangs.

Worse, let’s face it, the Cougars have really hit their stride offensively the past four weeks. Tulane isn’t exactly horrible on defense- and they are pretty healthy over there. But over sixty minutes, Tulane can’t repel that sort of firepower. The Cougars are gonna score.

You are getting 15.5 if you take the Wave. On paper, it just doesn’t feel like enough. The Wave offense is in clear decline. Injuries are definitely a part of it- but this coaching staff just doesn’t seem to be able to improve the play of the two young quarterbacks week to week. You would think that Kemp and Moore would improve seeing more and more of the elephant- but they’re just not. Add in fewer and fewer weapons… the Wave is still trying to find a collection of young plus skill position players who can play, stay on the field, and get better.

I started this week really wanting to take Tulane. Houston’s last two efforts- SMU and Marshall- would have failed to cover that two TD plus number. One of their top wideouts, Patrick Edwards, is out after a horrid freak accident- and there is a new guard too on a team that didn’t pass-protect all that well last week. They’re simply not the Kolb led C-USA monster of a few years back. And Houston has a huge game with Tulsa next week- feels a little like a trap game.

I’m nervous about it; these guys humiliated UAB not a month ago. Tulane had a hard game last week; Houston has had a few days off. But I just get this feeling that the defense can keep these guys to a manageable number- nothing in the 40s- which ought to keep the big number in reach. I guess I am not so much crazy about Tulane playing close, as Houston having to play real well to cover in a spot where they figure to not pitch an A effort. So, I’ll take the Wave to try and improve the 5-2 ATS mark (with one push)

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