A Lot of Problems

The Phillies punted another one against the Los Angeles Dodgers last night- really a terrible, uncompetitive loss seemingly from the get go. As I wrote Wednesday, this eleven game road trip is probably really the beginning of the end of this club’s chances for 2006. Nine starts by Madson, Floyd, Lidle and Brito in a week and a half equal a 4-7 trip- and a baseball team squarely at .500 returning home. Sure, they’ll be “around” the Mets- and certainly the Braves. But I’ve seen enough this May to really, really suggest the Phillies can’t hang with these clubs for another three months. It isn’t so much the six, seven games they’ll be out- but rather the sheer number of teams between them and a post-season spot.

That is not to say they’ll simply pull the plug. The Phillies will take a miracle second half or a Mets’ collapse cheerily if they happen- and plenty of games with the Marlins and Nats make falling below .500 impossible. So they’ll always be “in the race”. But be honest too, since Pat Gillick arrived, everything he does screams 2007.

The Phillies simply are not going to try to force things to contend this year- like the Mets will. The Phillies entered the off-season determined to clear eight figures from their bloated pay-roll of 2005- and not add to the bad contracts they have to eat. You can make a sensible argument for the departures of Thome, Padilla, Wagner, Urbina and Lofton- for example is $15 million plus for the back end of your bullpen really the best investment going? But it also isn’t like the Phillies went crazy sinking that money back into the 2006 on-field product or that some of those guys couldn't contribute had they wanted to really push this campaign. That is part and parcel of the reason Manuel is so safe. He is probably not going to be running this team when Gillick thinks it is time to contend- but his retention doesn’t retard the current mission of letting the clock run on some bad deals and getting a long look at some potential core players for the second half of this decade.

But if this is about 2007- and after a 4-7 trip it will increasingly be so- let’s totally play it out that way. Forget about removing Gavin Floyd from the rotation. What is more important- giving Brito or Floyd fifteen more starts to find out what they got? Let’s see Floyd for 100 more innings- find out what this guy is all about. And those of you who want to turn a good relief pitcher- Ryan Madson- into a mediocre starter- well, you win. If they punt this trip- let’s see if Madson can eat 100 innings throughout the summer in the rotation too.

And can we dismiss the idea of blowing up the farm system to bring in a pitcher like Jason Schmidt in here? This team is so not close to contention. I’m not in love with, say Cole Hamels. In fact, I totally support his departure to an organization who will give us a good major league player in return for years and years of arm trouble. But the idea that any sort of mortgaging the future in order to bolster this sagging rotation- to get from 83 wins to 86- is nuts.