Wear Shoes- We're Going To Baltimore

There are two ways to play a race like the Preakness today- a race featuring Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro- looming as a very short fave off his sharp destruction of the cream of his generation two weeks ago. Each is dissatisfying. You could play the chalk- and groan inwardly at the short prices you receive in a game that any follower knows is dicey at best. Or you could disdain Barbaro- and wonder just what possible logic has you throwing out the best looking Triple Crown contender in awhile.

I had Barbaro in the Derby- and I really like him. He is a real nice, fast, tactical colt. I didn’t win much at the Derby as I only hit the win “saver” punt- and missed the big play exactas tries. And I imagine that he’ll win today. If he runs his race, he is the best- and not by a little bit- colt out there.

But I’m getting off Barbaro in this spot. I candidly don’t like the prices at all- and I have a few doubts about his capacity to run big again today. And although this is a small Preakness field, there is some sharp talent here- and Barbaro will need his top effort to get the Black-Eyed Susans.

The one hole in Barbaro’s portfolio of performances is that while he always wins, he hasn’t been asked to win all that much. He’s never once been asked to bounce right back from a big spot to another big spot. In horse racing, that is a big angle. Horses are fragile. They really exert themselves. They routinely throw shoes, bleed in the lungs. To avoid this wear and tear, Barbaro has been gently been brought along- like when your dating in your thirties.

Well, the wear and tear begins for real now. Poor Barbaro. Again, he’s been coddled since birth. Ultimately, he’s a horse- so he has no real idea what in heck is going on. And now, as the scene shifts now from the classic Churchill Downs, in genteel Louisville, to Pimilico, a real awful pit in gritty Baltimore, he has got to wonder what on earth he did wrong. Will he “bounce” off his big race in Kentucky? I don’t know- but two huge races in two weeks, a foreign track, lots of travel and a prep career that suggests Barbaro’s connection don’t exactly consider him a rugged three year old… well, if he’s gonna “bounce”, today is good a day an any. And I’m not eager to take 7 to 10 to find out.

Like the Derby, I have some mad money floating around from a good stock pick: Ann Taylor (ANN) blew away earning yesterday. But I can't justify spending it here. Barbaro probably will win- and I am merely suggesting some sort of underlay strategy, hoping to get lucky, so no big wagers here. We’re up $20 on the notional $40 Derby bet- so let’s use that only- get to the Belmont even.

Brother Derek (shown to the right) and Sweetnorthernsaint are two horses that ran decently in Kentucky- and possess the requisite talent and speed figures to get it done here a lot of years. Both had excuses in Kentucky. Bernardini has tons of talent- but has never run close to this far- but wouldn’t surprise if he was somewhere around at the end to pick up a share. Like Now absolutely can pick up his feet.

So I am going to box Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint for $10 all in- $5 each way. Then let’s put them on top of an exacta ticket- and wheel Bernardini and Like Now underneath for $3 each- that is another $12. That is $22- half our Derby wagers- as befits as a more discomfiting competition.