Phillies Meander Apace Part 2

Please God, not Tom Gordon- and not for three years. Yuck.

Billy Wagner took a hike to New York. This hurts the Phillies- no doubt about it. Billy was one easy, routine thing on a team that did not have to many easy, routine things to hang its hat on day after day. But the path to excellence is probably not paved by giving four year deals, plus a buy-out on a fifth, at over ten million per, to a pitcher pushing 35 that has missed significant time twice in six years. The road to ruin in free-agency is committing big guaranteed money to guys in their thirties. So it hurts, but what are you going to do? It would have hurt them more to sign him.

Obviously, it makes more sense to the Mets- who have a narrow window of opportunity with Pedro. If they get two solid runs out of Wagner, coupled with a post-season or two, they probably did okay with this contract. I hate that he is in the division- so that is probably also tickling the Mets’ front-office.

You won’t find it written in any press release- but the Phillies seem determined to clear eight figures from their completely bloated pay-roll. Thome's partial contract reduction and Wagner's expiring deal subtract north of $15 million. I doubt the Phils will be looking to invest all of that back into the on-field product. With any luck Urbina will go to jail forever, eliminating that bill- and the clock will continue to tick on Leiberthal’s, Wolf’s, Padilla’s and Bell’s deals- and the payroll situation will have a chance to improve radically for 2007.

The Phils aren’t bad exactly. They did win 87-games. They seem to try & care. But they have some bad commitments that realistically aren't going to get better. I don’t think anyone seriously can look at this roster’s problems at catcher and third base- combine it with multiple mysteries and holes in the pitching- and seriously get 94-97 wins. Even some of their "strengths" are sort of unproven. Utley and Howard are nice young players- but would you be honestly surprised to see their numbers fall a bit? Rollins had a spectacular finish- but he has months and months of stupid at-bats as well. I tend to think Jimmy is more the latter player than the former over 162-games. Burrell defines enigma. Leiber could realistically make fifteen starts next year. Issues.

I imagine the Phillies are not going to try to force things to contend next year- like the Mets should and will. They’ll be content to be hopeful that their young players develop smartly, that some the inscrutable veterans either rally or have outstanding years, and reposition the organizational deck chairs some. Let Gillick make his own judgments on who is worth keeping, what is growing down on the farm, etc.

The division is full of questions. There is enough, if they get some pitching from unexpected sources and some of the conundrums shake out in their favor, to win 85+ games and hang around in a division that features going-nowhere Florida and Washington. Every year teams package health, some surprises and a little luck into a nice run. The Phils have enough pieces to be that team. And again, they aren't bad. But it would be more luck than rational expectation.

Just there is not enough here to expect that signing one super-closer at an over-market price might put them in a 95-win realm. Or trying to force Jason Marquis or Jason Schmidt into a top-of-the rotation role- as if that is all that separates the Phillies from excellence.

If something good falls in their lap, they’ll pay for it- but short of some modest pitching plays, I imagine you’re largely looking at the 2006 Phillies.