Prediction Thursday- Marshall

Lost amid the holiday hubbub, a pretty important game looms for the Tulane Green Wave Saturday up at Marshall. Let’s take a second to remember where we were back in August:

From an off-season prediction standpoint, this off-season has been a hard one for the Tulane faithful. Forecasters have been brutal to the Green Wave. A bevy of national publications pick Tulane to be truly horrible. Sports Illustrated reportedly has them dead last- in the entire country! The Orlando Sentinal has them 116 out of 120 BCS Division outfits. Lindy, Athlon, TSN, USA Today and Phil Steele have Tulane picked for last in C-USA West.

A fifth win, and a third conference victory, would be a pretty nifty turnaround from a team widely viewed as the very worst in the country.

The New York post fails to share the optimism, listing the Herd -9 over Tulane this morning.

If you avail yourself of the link above that takes you to the blog article that quote comes from, you will see I pooh-poohed the idea of a finish that horrid. I pointed out that no one with decent quarterbacking, which Tulane absolutely had in Ryan Griffin, could be rock bottom.

Unfortunately, Tulane’s problems now begin at quarterback. Heck, I don’t know who is going to play? And with a reserve, possibly three deep (DJ Ponder I guess?), doing the pitching, the defense a burnt out wreck- we need to entertain the idea Tulane is back at rock bottom.

None of the major second half story lines have been encouraging, eating at the vitals of the early success. The defense seems tired- and the lack of reinforcements from the bench is glaring from a team whose recruiting had supposedly picked up (where are those guys?). Good helpful play at quarterback has disappeared, the wide receivers are poor. Only the tailback seems capable of a decent cartoon offensive number.

Marshall isn’t great. But they seem to have a few more players- particularly on defense. They Herd has won three of their last four- defeating UTEP, UAB, Memphis- holding all three under 17.

That is probably where Tulane is on offense right now too- rock bottom in C-USA. Add in the zapped defense- and this engaged Marshall team ought to roll comfortably here. So Marshall -9 over Tulane to run the ATS mark to 8-4.

Three Wins In A Row?

The dead-even Tulane Green Wave finds itself a three point home ‘dog this weekend to Marshall.

And I feel almost a little panicked. Up from a potential rock bottom, the Wave is now coming off two straight emotional “had to have them” wins. They seem pretty healthy (unfortunately, so is the Herd). The defense was very good versus the Cadets. And Marshall is a game Tulane could absolutely win. It a pure dash of prosperity- and I suppose it is a factor handicapping this game. It is just I don’t know exactly how to deal with it- call it the wages of prosperity: could the Wave actually look past opponents? maybe the Wave might react to bad luck by playing confidently?

In the end it comes down to four doubts.

I doubt Tulane can muster the same intensity a third week in a row after two utter “must have” close wins. It is a lot to ask of any team.

Second, I’m not sure of a single good defensive performance, against a very one dimensional Cadet team, now means that Tulane can keep an adequate C-USA attack under control.

Third, Darius Marshall is real close to being a super League tailback (already second team all C-USA, leads I-A in per game rushing) Marshall can flat out block the running game- and that is a chronic problem for Tulane's defense. Darius figures to have a monster 200-something yard day against the back-seven of the Tulane defense.

Lastly, Marshall is still a step better than Tulane. Perhaps it is now a small step, but a step nonetheless. Could Tulane play a credible game with an upper echelon C-USA outfit like East Carolina? After all, Marshall does have three wins in five tries. Before we mock any, we got Army and McNeese in our victory bucket.

With that sort of rushing attack and Tulane’s awful special teams, Marshall is going to score north of thirty here. I’m doubtful Tulane can keep up- and three points is not much of a head start.

I’ve picked Tulane ATS three games in a row now- largely due to the fact I figured they simply weren’t as bad as Tulsa and BYU were capable of making them look. Here, I figure I’m giving Marshall three because Tulane simply isn’t as good as either McNeese or Army were capable of making Tulane look.

I’m nervous about this pick though. I wonder if it is again influenced by the fact I cannot accept that Tulane is a class better than 2008, therefore should totally expect to play a toss up game with Marshall (the very definition of the level up from C-USA style “terrible”)- and then be happy with the 3-point head start?

No said this was easy. Nevertheless, I’m picking Marshall here- looking to improve on the 3-1 season mark ATS*


*the McNeese State pick was straight up

Shame

I really don’t know what to say about Tulane’s opening round loss to Marshall- other than, in life, a little gumption and “want to” goes a long way. The Herd shamed Tulane good- both in season and in the tournament. We’ll see how the players respond today in the loser’s bracket.

Tulane played way too many games against them this year where Tulane thought it was an exhibition. Marshall never thought it was a show.

If they don’t make the tournament this year, if I were Jones, I would spend a year putting a little “want to” in this group: turn off the air conditioning, get rid of the amenities, end the fluff.

If there ever was a group that needed a kick in the butt, this is it. Being spotted Shooter Hunt for an entire season, and failing to make the tournament, equals underachieving.

And if anyone wants to critque this blog vis-a-vis class, check out the remnants of this post.

Back From Vacation. Mad.

First, an old joke- which I first heard as a young cavalry officer in Germany in the early nineties:

A Polish farmer, a Russian army officer, an old lady and a gorgeous young woman were all sharing a train compartment. As the train rolled through a tunnel, the compartment became pitch dark- and the sound of a kiss, shortly followed by a loud slap, rang out.

As the train car emerged from the tunnel, the Russian officer thought that farmer is a sharp fellow: he steals a kiss, and I get slapped. The old woman thought approvingly- that young girl had standards! The pretty girl thought- how odd, one of the boys tried to steal a kiss from the old lady instead of me?

And the Polish farmer thought: perfect! I kiss the back of my hand, slap a Russian, and get away with it!

Now that the Marshall-Tulane series is over, who do you think was the Russian and who was the farmer this weekend?

Well, I know the Herd managed to reduce our fan base to posts and strings labeling Marshall classless, etc.- while in the next sentence calling them “in-bred” and “coal miners”. I don’t know much about college baseball- but those posts, coupled with a consensus bad team going on the road and getting a split… powerful evidence that yet another baseball team has stole a march on Jones and the boys.

No doubt Marshall came to New Orleans chippy and confrontational. They’re probably laughing now- guilty as charged! Heck, I’m increasingly getting tired of the Tulane community sense of entitlement vis-à-vis baseball- we have a new stadium! we have a zillion dollar coach! we’ve been to the CWS!- I can only imagine how the Herd must feel. Frankly, a lot of self-congratulation is going on around Tulane for a team that might struggle to finish fifth or so, again. I know if I were the Marshall coach, with my band of road underdogs, I would encourage them to see and treat Tulane with contempt as a bloated factory.

And, of course, it also helps Marshall that, well increasingly, I too get this feeling the baseball program is in fact a bloated, Dr. Feelgood situation. If the Russians came to Lake Placid to trade jeans, Tulane seems a little too worried about the air-conditioning level in the hit shack.

The program is run like a yogwf fantasy: new building, big dollar coach, endless soft ooc opponents. Where is the sense of urgency? When was the last time the Wave played surprisingly well, over expectations for- oh, I don’t know- two weeks in a row? Seriously, three years ago? Four?

I know- the season isn’t over. I am really trying not to rant- and I realize Shooter probably insulates the Wave against real disaster. But they have a real chance to have the conference season slip away- and probably the tournament too- this week. I don’t know much about the roster or who does what- but, like I said last time, some distance probably actually helps here. Tulane does not have a tree problem, but a forest problem.

Tulane has a SMU football stadium situation here. They’ve made real investments in this thing- and this malaise cannot continue. Katrina aside, what more do these guys want? LSU, conference play, UC-Irvine, in-state play.... every test has been wanting. Not good enough. Something needs to be shaken up. Now.