What is Up With the Phillies?

Well, here we are, right? Left for dead by their own management, what is the left of the Phillies have shown a little pride, a little fire. Perhaps inadvertently, Gillick challenged their self-respect- and to their credit, the Phillies responded with week of very good baseball: scoring a ton of runs for the most part, sweeping the recently hapless Cardinals. And as the Cincinnati Reds got a little case of the swoons too- the Phillies are two games back in the loss column.

I am not sure the Phillies are good- I tend to think this streak is mostly a result of the two best players on the team- Utley & Howard- being on fire at the same time. You could put those two on the Pirates- and they probably would have swept St. Louis this week.

But it doesn’t hurt that the Phillies have had a little roster serendipity go their way for once. Again, Chase Utley and Howard are on fire. Moving Utley into Abreu’s spot in the line-up puts the team’s best three-hole hitter actually in the three-hole. David Dellucci has brought a good left-handed bat into Utley’s old spot. So the Abreu trade hasn’t hurt them yet- at least against against RHP.

They also got a semi-decent turn through the rotation- ultimately replacing Lidle with another five or so ERA guy probably doesn’t hurt much. Wolf and Mathieson gutted their way to decent outings- and the nights the bullpen imploded were fortunately confined to nights the team was scoring a dozen or so runs.

Can it last? Well, increasingly, it looks like it might only take 84-85 wins to get this Wild Card thing done- so if you are a .500 club (which the Phillies categorically are) playing well for two weeks straight (which the Phillies are threatening to do), why not?

The immediately upcoming plethora of games against the Mets (ten!) and three with Reds by the 27th alone will be a big determinant. But six-seven wins in those thirteen games- and a good showing against the weaker schedule elements (ten against Nats and Cubs plus three with Atlanta)- means they would enter September with a chance. A "not crazy projection pre-supposing Utley and Howard having great months", say a 15-11 month from here, means the Phillies would be the pace or a game or so off it entering the stretch.

Normally I would be doubtful- the starting pitching is still officially a mess, the bullpen is increasingly balky and the bottom of the order is a black hole of despair. But the Phillies feel, again, serendipitous for the first time since Wagner gave up those home runs against Houston last year. And, for the first time in a long time, they are playing the actual game of baseball well and with enthusiasm- like they want to be at the park. Maybe Leiber will see the kids and emerge from his emotion coma and pitch like a proud pro for a month- would that be too hard to ask big guy?

So I have a feeling about the Phillies, almost despite myself, that isn’t altogether terrible. Not like I think they’re good- but like they might be okay for a few weeks if they keep hitting- and that ought to be enough to hang around in this chase for second with play-off privileges.