So Close To Relevance

There was a lot of rubble to sort through this weekend: Phillies eliminated, Eagles embarrassed, Saints routed.

But how about that Tulane Green Wave? Their second upset of a double digit favorite while playing on the road. The case for improvement, an outside chance for Bowl eligibility, is still in play.

That being said, unlike the Rutgers’ upset, a little humility is called for here. I was quick to minimize the Army loss as an atypical game: clustered turnovers and some bad karma undid the touchdown favorite.

But I can’t write that a month ago- and then not acknowledge that this victory was sort of the same thing here. If Army proved that three turnovers in a half plus some shaky coaching choices are enough to overturn a decent home favorite, then this game was a further, similar lesson. I’m not sure there is all that much separation between the Miners and the Green Wave. UTEP is clearly a mediocre C-USA outfit, and that sort of collective can’t survive repeatedly giving the football away. The point is, I did not really mark Tulane down much after Army, and I ain’t marking them up much here. In an entire season, karma largely sorts itself out- and this win just sort of restores the status quo.

After lauding Mike Price in this space last weekend, I was a little embarrassed by his approach. Ryan Griffin and the Tulane offense are a maturing group. Opponents cannot sit passively back. Tulane is an increasingly decent C-USA outfit, decent C-USA outfits can score thirty points- and consequently, rivals need to try to score five, six touchdowns.

Yet, Price was so passive. Obviously, Trevor Vittitoe was having a tough go- but it is hard to engineer a 40 point, six touchdown night (which is frankly what UTEP needed to achieve to win) with 21 attempts, 102 passing yards.

This was the sort of game that sorts a “real” C-USA fan from a casual college football observer. If you were cackling at home, labeling Mike Price’s game plan “suspect”, for calling for 60% runs, 31 carries for 206 yards, you get the League. On paper it looks great- all that rushing!

But the real C-USA fan knows that sort of run-pass ratio, particularly on a night where you only get 60 snaps, is sentencing you to a performance of 20-ish points. Even if you play well, have success, you are merely at 24 points. Frankly, Price created an attack designed to keep Tulane in the game (ed. note- We’ve seen it. Matt Forte. He would crush teams for 200+ yards, but the Wave would be stuck in the ‘teens, and lose.)

It is not enough firepower to consistently win in the League. You can’t overlay NFL success metrics on to this League. The decent-to-good C-USA team is still normally a potential monster on offense: near 500 yards, five/six TDs… an you cannot generate those cartoon numbers primarily rushing the football. You have to give yourself dozens of chances to generate field position flipping plays on first down- not set up 2nd and five.

I don’t mean to ding the Wave this morning- but if you want to know why Tulane was unable to turn a really great day on offense (461 yards), with three bonus good field position possessions off turnovers, into more than four TDs (really, not an acceptable number in the League given all those turnovers), you might look at a similar excess propensity to run the football too.

The Wave had that unreal great day rushing (281 yards)- but an inadequate number of scores. Many outside observers would say “Wow!”; a C-USA fan would say “not enough points”. My chief tactical problem with Coach Toledo is that culturally he is unable to recognize that running the football in our League is only situationally important: a change of pace, short yardage, or red zone applications.

I’m telling you, had the Wave not gotten all those turnovers, and then lost this game 27-24 in OT, that run/pass mix is where I would be pointing the finger this morning. As the fourth quarter ground on, Tulane was in real danger of losing because they were running the football too much. There is a real danger in C–USA for mis-understanding not only the nature but also the amount of scoring required in the League. If you want to score 40 points, be really good on offense, 45-carry days (paqrticularly first down carries) are problematic.

Enough of that. It was a good win, evidence that the defense can keep anything other than a monster C-USA offense (say Tulsa) under some kind of wraps- and that the offense is getting the totals up. A middle of the pack C-USA team is really looking to break out here.

Tulane Plays Best Game of Season

One of my favorite bloggers is Dr. Saturday. Today, his blog devolved a series of light chastisements (perhaps like a father) to a series of other blogs wrestling with their teams machinations within the BCS. As I read the gentle corrections, I was struck how utterly ungrateful they all are. I'd love to tie a "successful" 4-8 season on USC- do you know how much suffering goes into deeming 4-8 successful? Along those lines, Tulane played its best game of the season, picking up a spirited and entertaining overtime win, and you will not catch me kvetching- particularly after being chastised for over analysis in lieu of joy this week on nola.com.

Still, while I must admit I am surprised at how well Ryan Griffin played, I still thought it felt like a game the Wave could win. As I pithily wrote in the comments after the game, when UTEP is bad, they are bad. And, this Wave team, even pre-season, just does not feel like a 2009 style 2-win bad outfit. Mind you, they don't feel five-win good either. But having stuck with a 4-8 pick through the bad beatings, I believe the core belief- that Tulane is better than 2009- will be vindicated in the end. It just doesn't take much to win four games- and the Wave simply was too soon labeled by many as again horrid.

A lot of the chats and forums featured repetitive posts and strings the past few weeks about both “whom to blame” and “how to fix” Tulane football: the evil Cowen, incompetent Toledo, the lacking facilities, lack of institution commitment. There are perhaps parts of truth is such ruminations.

But you could do all those things- clean house and spend a zillion dollars- and still be a mess.

I don’t really obsess about such wholesale changes because I have always believed the quickest, sanest, rock-solid way to back-to-back seven, eight win campaigns is not a new coach, or new President, or new facilities.

Instead, find just one young man who can play quarterback at the level Ryan played at Saturday for 20 out of 24 starts in 2010 and 2011. It is also a lot more sane and do-able plan. It isn’t even particularly nuanced- and evidence of success is everywhere: Rice recently, Houston, etc.

Let's All Try For A Degree Of Relevance

The New York Post puts the UTEP -7 over Tulane- so for the first time since Marshall, the Wave figures to be in a contest it could win without shocking everyone involved.

On paper, UTEP is pretty easy to figure- outside of the Houston shocker anyway. Like most okay C-USA teams they can be counted on to score something around thirty, while conveniently allowing thirty on the other side of the ledger. Take away the BCS games- Kansas and Texas- you have a very typical .500 C-USA team.

I can’t see Tulane getting to thirty with this offense again in flux at the quarterback position. So they have to probably keep UTEP to some sort of manageable number.

Unfortunately, UTEP had over 600 yards of offense last week- but UAB was able to hang around (and eventually win) because UTEP couldn’t complete their drives via a pair of interceptions. In fact, Miner quarterback Trevor Vittatoe is the problematic wild card here. Vittatoe is a below average C-USA quarterback, six picks in his last three conference games, immobile. The Tulane fan really knows what knotty immoblie quarterback play means in a quarterback League. The Miners could play well on offense- and struggle to get to 28-plus points.

Consequently, my head is screaming to take Tulane here- I mean, you’re getting seven versus a very up and down team, a mediocre defense, a bad quarterback that couldn’t beat Memphis or UAB straight up.

At 6-2 ATS (McNeese was straight up), this is the most tricky pick of the season- because the UTEP team that beat Houston and played Tulsa credibly wins by three TDs here-and the Miner team that lost to the Blazers and the Tigers could very well lose. I can’t figure what Miner team we’ll see- but their quarterback is definitely slumping. And Tulane can score 21 here (they scored 17 versus Army outside).

I must admit I’m also struck by the line bouncing between -7/-6.5. I really thought it would be more like ten… makes me wonder about some unknown UTEP poison?

I clench my teeth and take Tulane here. Sort of like the Army game- use the old handicapping maxim that if you wouldn’t be shocked that an underdog wins the game, and you’re getting a TD, take the points.

So, don’t you dare screw me Coach Toledo. And give me Tulane +7 over UTEP.

"Mining" For Decency

Tulane was a one score underdog last week- the first stupid line in awhile. Any student of Tulane football knew that was a real tricky match-up for Tulane- a game where real C-USA quarterback firepower had a chance to overwhelm a grind it out offensive approach. Tulane had no real way to either stop Tulsa from going for thirty-plus or to score thirty themselves.

Consequently, it was a stone lay-up. This week’s game feels a little more tricky. Tulsa was a clear step up in class; UTEP not so much. And the New York Post puts UTEP -4.5 over Tulane.

The step down in class from Tulsa stems mainly from one fact. The Miners are an utter, UAB-level, disaster on defense. Unlike last week, Forte figures to run utterly wild again. The 200 yards he hung up against the Blazers seems like a fair expectation.

While the defense is underachieving like crazy, the Miners’ offense is, like Tulsa, a slick C-USA operation that can score a ton. Trevor Vittatoe is only a RS freshman- and I honestly haven’t seen him play a lick- but his 21 TDs versus 3 interceptions is that sort of risk-reward ratio one associates with quality C-USA quarterback play. Again, like Tulsa, they present an array of skill position players that Tulane has zero hope of containing. We all know what a quality C-USA passing attack does to the Tulane defense: Houston (34), SMU (34), Tulsa (49).

My problem here is that I imagine Tulane will play well on offense: semi-competent quarterback play plus a big day from Matt Forte. But, unless Forte goes for 300, Tulane hasn’t been able to generate four scores all season against C-USA or Army.

And I think they need five- just to be in it late. I know these guys lost to Rice last week- but Tulane can’t score 30, let alone 56. And the Miners can score at least 40 if they need to.

Forget matching that idiot Scelfo’s four I-A wins with a similar roster plus Auburn last year. Toledo-nauts have been reduced to cheering the fact that we don’t get blown out by conference opponents! Much. And that hypothesis will get put to the sore test this weekend- as UTEP could really go nuts here and hang on Tulane its second straight bad loss. Look for a little more fight- a more competitive game- that still leaves Tulane on the short double digits at the end. I’ll give the 4.5 to Tulane.