Tolerable? Or Soul-Sucking?

As a Tulane fan, we’re pretty used to categorizing defeat. Be it “soul-sucking” or “irritating” or “bad luck”, we can confidently put it in its proper bucket.

In this way, this week’s loss to Southern Mississippi is more tolerable than most. Most of us had little optimism. Southern Miss has more players, a better coach, a veteran quarterback. The Golden Eagles were just better- and Tulane’s effort was spirited. We even get the special teams woes: Toledo just doesn’t have enough bodies in the down roster spots to play good “teams”.

It is just the repeat return follies that are galling. DJ Banks fumbled punt was the umpteenth turnover in the return game by a reserve, back-up return guy. Seriously, stop it. Minimize these back-up guys impact- not look to encourage them to make plays. Tulane obviously cannot just plug and play with the back-up return guys. One of the dozens of coaching professionals has got to tell Banks, absolutely insist, that he is not to handle a punt in that situation inside the ten. Nothing good can come of it- but easy points, momentum, etc. can come from a turnover in that spot. This team has trouble from its first string return guys- so just stop asking the second options to do anything other than the most rudimentary tasks (“get out of the way”) near the Tulane goal.

Conversely, the first half, and first possession of the second half, were a real nice example of a C-USA attack plan. The run/pass ration was good- more passes than runs- and not surprisingly, the competent Griffin was on his way to a 300-yard winning day. Orleans Darkwa was getting good, helpful numbers is a supporting role. But then this depressing second half stretch, a period where they went from being tied 27-27 to down 37-30. Notice anything?

Possession One:
Tln 1-10 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left guard for 6 yards to the TLN32
Tln 2-4 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left end for 4 yards to the TLN36, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-10 Darkwa, Orleans rush up middle for 40 yards to the USM24, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-10 at Usm24 Jason, Payten rush up middle for 8 yards to the USM16
Tln 2-2 at Usm16 Jason, Payten rush up middle for no gain to the USM16
Tln 3-2 at Usm16 Jason, Payten rush over right guard for 7 yards to the USM9, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-G at Usm09 Jason, Payten rush up middle for 1 yard to the USM8 (GRAY, Anthony).
Tln 2-G at Usm08 Griffin, Ryan middle pass incomplete to Figaro, Devin, QB hurry by LAW, Cordarro.
Tln 3-G at Usm08 Griffin, Ryan slant pass complete to Figaro, Devin for 7 yards to the USM1
Tln 4-G at Usm06 [FG], Santos, Cairo field goal attempt from 23 GOOD

Possession Two:
Tln 1-10 at Tln22 Griffin, Ryan deep pass incomplete to Grant, Ryan.
Tln 2-10 at Tln22 [GUN], Darkwa, Orleans rush draw play for 1 yard to the TLN23
Tln 3-9 at Tln23 [GUN], Griffin, Ryan middle pass incomplete to VAN HOOSER, W..
Tln 4-9 at Tln23 GINSBURGH, J. punt 36 yards

Possession Three:
Tln 1-10 at Tln04 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left guard for 2 yards to the TLN6
Tln 2-8 at Tln06 [GUN], Darkwa, Orleans rush over right guard for 4 yards to the TLN10
Tln 3-4 at Tln10 [GUN], Griffin, Ryan pass incomplete to Grant
Tln 4-4 at Tln10 GINSBURGH, J. punt 30 yards to the TLN40

This three possession period is where Tulane stopped scoring: one mere FG in three possessions in a shootout is problematic. Tulane started running the ball, particularly in good down distance/situations: ten runs/five passes, no first down passes, no second and short passes. Basically, they decide to play to lose.

Take the possession where they score the field goal. The Green Wave runs the ball very well... but again cannot score a touchdown. Toledo is asking an offense, with suspect players all over, to produce eight to ten good running plays a series in order to score. That is eight to ten plays with no turnovers, no bad first down result, no penalties.

It is too much. Tulane cannot run eight good plays in a row. They lack the talent. It is nearly impossible- choosing to lose. Sure, Tulane can run maybe five good rushing plays in seven- but that still equates to stopping themselves somewhere. So in Possession One, Tulane doesn’t get a good result on 1st down just once. Once! It puts the Green Wave in a tricky spot with second/third and long in the red zone- a spot an NFL offense would have trouble in. And that is how, routinely, good rushing totals around here don’t add up to points. It takes too many plays, too many things have to go right in succession. Thus, yet again, Tulane has 60+ yards rushing equaling three points.

Lastly, there was this irritating gem from Coach Toledo- a guy who really needs to keep his trap shut:

“It's just taking us time. We were so far down when I started, and we've progressed steadily. We just haven't turned the corner yet. It's a little better; it's having a few more players. We need more guys who can score touchdowns; we need more guys who can makes plays. We didn't make a bunch of plays tonight."

I would point out that Scelfo’s last team was flat out better than this one: won four games (all I-A), two of its losses were no hope cash road games versus Auburn and LSU, and featured better talent at all key C-USA skill positions: Ricard, Forte, Williams, etc. We’re still two wins away from any of Toledo’s multiple teams getting to the quality of Scelfo’s last outfit.

Prediction Thursday- Southern Mississippi

Wading through the New York Post’s jubilant election coverage, we are faced with a not so jubilant detail- Southern Mississippi -9.5 over Tulane.

On paper, that is a pretty big number for a Golden Eagles outfit cursed with inconsistency, unable to defeat UAB- an opponent definitely in Tulane’s class. And for all the woe associated with Tulane blowing a 14-point lead to SMU via 28 unanswered second half points, some would point out that SMU really had to work, depend on a crazy, atypical run of play in the second half, to get a mere one score plus cover.

I dunno. After weeks of praising Tulane’s improvement, I’m a little down. The bloom of improvement, the glow of Tulane’s upset win at Rutgers, is dissipating. Heck, I’ve got readers chiding me for missing “easy” selections against Tulane.

The knock on Southern Mississippi is the aforementioned inconsistency- which isn’t exactly fair. They’ve been juggling injuries, but they seem to have got the C-USA offense cranked up: 35 points four weeks in a row, 40 counting OT. Unlike last year, QB Austin Davis isn’t great. But we’ve seen what a competent, low turnover ball distributor can do given a chance to throw 35 times a game: score bunches. Injuries aside, as long as Davis is pitching, USM figures to be a real handful- certainly capable of scoring the type of points needed to cover this sort of number.

No, the inconsistency is on the defense- where they sort of have a Tulane vibe to them: some good players, some issues. Some Saturdays they hang in gamely (particularly versus the run), other Saturdays it is an avalanche. I wrote about this a few weeks back versus Tulsa:

You have to think about C-USA a little different. Defenses in the NFL tend to fail in stages- sort of a linear progression from good-to-okay-to-bad. C-USA defenses tend to gap down, a geometric reaction versus arithmetic- like a bridge sagging, sagging, sagging, then utter failure. I tend to think that stems from a talent gap factor. There is an ability step down in the NFL from star to starter to reserve. But that gap is miniscule to the step down in C-USA. You can have a pro prospect one place, and a guy who might not start for Harvard at another. In the NFL you might occasionally have one or two defenders who totally can’t handle their assignments. In C-USA, you routinely have three or four guys who are just over matched.

To me, here is the selection. Southern Mississippi figures to score here, they can hurt even a plus C-USA defensive outfit. But can Tulane keep up; can it get the USM defense to that point where the critical failure happens? It is a critical point because in games where USM’s defense is not “tested to failure”, they tend to hammer the hapless victims (the exception being a narrow victory over Louisiana Tech).

I’m doubtful for three reasons. First, for some reason, the Tulane offense has decided to take the ball out of Ryan Griffin’s hands (particularly on first and second downs) and give to Darkwa and company. Say what you want about my theories about run/pass ratios in C-USA, but this is an incontrovertible fact: Tulane has struggled in the Toledo regime to turn good rushing totals into points. And that is problematic on a Saturday where Tulane figures to need five TDs just to sort of be in it.

Second, Tulane is still sort of a 50-50 proposition to just play horrid in some typical secondary issue of game performance: turnovers, kick returns or simply stop playing pass defense for a quarter. There is seemingly more talent on the Tulane roster (ed. note: Tulane was a 21.5 'dog last year)- but odd gaps in performance routinely surface. I can’t figure out, construct a formula for which week exactly, but sometimes a huge part of the game plan goes horrible wrong. So we have a weekly 50-50 chance that Tulane won’t play competently enough in some facet of the game to even have chance: back-to-back-to back fumbles versus Army, first quarter woes, etc.

Third, even if they do play competently and have a good run/pass mix, Tulane’s offense simply might not be good enough anyway to break the USM defense.

I’m not optimistic here. Tulane could play well on offense and, due to too much rushing or lack of skill position talent at wide receiver(s), not put the requisite pressure on Southern Mississippi to get the Golden Eagles to collapse. Tulane can very likely play well on offense here: Darkwa could go for 150 yards, Griffin put up 14-for-20, 150 yards, 0 INTs.... and score 17 points Saturday. And there is a goodly chance that Tulane just goes and makes one of their every other game "messes".

So I like the simple, routine expression of big number offense featured by USM- and not the what do we have this week nature of Tulane. Southern Mississippi -9.5 over Tulane is the pick.

Sort of Stopping Southern Miss

The New York Post takes a minute from breathlessly anticipating a Phillies-Yankees series to put up Southern Mississippi -21.5 over the Tulane Green Wave. And we are off to a great 5-1 ATS start here- bowl eligible with a win against the number this week.

Naturally, the number grows bigger each time the Wave plays a first division C-USA outfit- the Wave was unable to cover 14 versus Tulsa to open the season, or 19 last week versus Houston.

But to me, that is the rub. The Wave hung with the Cougars for a half. Conversely, Southern Miss ain’t piloted by a second tier Heisman Trophy candidate. Southern Miss is not legitimately hanging around and inside the national top 25 polls.

Southern Miss can do one thing real well- run the football. RB Damion Fletcher has had a wonderful C-USA career- and he know doubt will go for a buck-fifty here. But USM’s 28th ranked rushing attack is also part and parcel with issues throwing the football. They probably will eschew the pass for long stretches- content to rush the football and consequently move the clock. It is safe- but just not a prescription for 40 points- which the Golden Eagles probably need to be sure of covering.

Yes, the Golden Eagles play some defense too- but even seventeen Tulane points is a real threat when you’re chasing three scores plus a hook. The "new" Tulane quarterback situation is merely status quo really- it is always in flux possession to possession. Frankly, uncertainty at quarterback under Toledo is sort of normal now; it is priced in. Ryan Griffin isn’t making a big difference tomorrow.

Tulane simply ought to be able to hang out a little longer here. USM is just not as explosive as Houston/Tulsa. And a game that is competitive into the second half makes a four score separation problematic.

It is not an easy pick. Toledo is a bad football coach unable to get a quarterback to play at a plus level or the team to play hard each week. Bad things repeatedly turn into blowouts. Going with Tulane is never routine or easy right now. But this line is too much. Tulane plays credibly for stretches- give me the Green Wave +21.5

A Tepid Endorsement of the Status Quo

If one can believe the papers, the Tulane Green Wave basketball team played its best game this year and crushed Southern Mississippi far away from the Mardi Gras.

It is clear that Tulane is going to take a hard look at this program in the off-season. The product isn’t good or getting better or attended- and Coach Dickerson has been here awhile. As Katrina recedes into the near distance, a mandate for change could evolve.

That being said, I think Dickerson is going to get another shot at this (ed. note: assuming he is amenable, he was a good ACC assistant and might prefer that gig to this outpost).

First of all, the kids play for him. That is no little thing when the building is empty and the team isn’t very good. The only thing the Green Wave has to play for like years now is each other. And they do.

Frankly, they don’t have any good mid-major conference players- I mean, who exactly is all-League? But they are not a disgrace. They throw the ball up and they compete. They’ve won lots of first round conference tournament games lately- so they’re still competing at the end of busted campaigns year after year. All of this suggests to me that concerning on-court "x's" and "o's", Coach is extracting something like near maximum value.

So, Coach Dave gets both effort and the most possible wins out of the roster. He has a past as an effective recruiter- which is what, if he were fired, Tulane would be looking to add, right? Looking at the horrifying violence that is right at his doorstep, recruiting in the flotsam and jetsam of Katrina, who would do better? Heck, what coach with prospects would even want to try?

I guess I don’t think they’re going to do better than this guy- and the on court product isn’t far from respectable. Add a single good recruiting class and this is probably a plus .500 C-USA product. I look at Coach Dave and see a guy who seems to get the most out of his roster, a guy who kids play for and a guy who can excuse his recruiting failures by pointing at real horrid off court issues. Bring him back.