Even More Progress

It took forty games and more than three years, but Bob Toledo has a big win.

It has been clear from the get go that this is Tulane’s best team of the Toledo era. Finally, Tulane was able to turn the good showings, the moral victories, of Mississippi and Houston into a tangible win. Frankly, if you play enough one score games late, it will be someone else’s turn to mess up a trick play, get their quarterback hurt and make a dumb throw in a big spot.

Of course, when the “rent-a-win” refuses to lie down, there will be some unhappiness:

I thought that last year's defeat to a vastly inferior Syracuse team would stand for a while as the worst post-rebuilding loss of Greg Schiano's tenure at Rutgers. Yesterday's defeat shattered that assumption, and stands alone as a crushing reality check that there is something uniquely and inherently wrong and flawed about this year's Scarlet Knight team. That is the inescapable conclusion when you lose at home to an opponent who has looked rather bad up to this point, and did nothing yesterday to indicate otherwise.

The Tulane game did not have the caveats that Syracuse provided. It was at home, and Tulane does not have a bizarre and inexplicable obsession with demonizing Rutgers as a propaganda ploy. More importantly, Syracuse actively won their victory through superior game planning and execution that day. While I normally would never try to disparage or diminish the other team's contributions in a loss (or to the contrary, solely credit internal factors in a victory), Tulane clearly did nothing of note all game beyond not being a complete and utter train wreck.

Gosh. Is Tulane better than Rutgers? I don’t know. Did Tulane play well enough to win one of the last three games? Yeah. Yeah, Tulane did. We’re not apologizing.

It also isn’t fair. Tulane is increasingly “respectable”, to use a characterization I used last week- particularly the defense. I don’t think it is even arguable anymore. It has four guys, up from zero the previous two campaigns, who could be all C-USA defensive selections: Moses (this week's C-USA player of the week), Ponce de Leon, Mackey, Smith*. It is quite possible for the Green Wave to hold a bad BCS offense, with further quarterback issues, to a pair of touchdowns.

QB Ryan Griffin played well too. It is hard to label Tulane as a passive participant when the most important player on a spread offense has a solid day- out-playing his Rutgers counterparts. I mean, this is what spread quarterbacking looks like when faced with a defense that arguably has better players: keep the completion percentage high, no turnovers. Griffin did not win the game, but he did not lose it either. He isn't going to throw for 300 yards against Rutgers. When faced with playing a game in the teens, winner being the team with the fewest errors- and your quarterback doesn’t make any... he has done his job. Ask Rutgers if they'd like that last throw back? It was a game where one bad throw makes a difference. Tulane's did not make it. They win. Fair is fair.

Plus, you know, even as a rent-a-win, Tulane is allowed to make plays too. The trick pass Tulane rolled out there was a slick play utilizing team strengths. Tulane has surplus quarterback recruits. To get these athletes on the field, the Wave has found new skill positions for them. Further, Tulane used these surplus quarterback assets in a creative matter- getting the ball to wide out/reserve quarterback and having him execute a good throw. That is good coaching at a tactical level (play execution) and the strategic level (trickeration with an underlying agenda: finding a way to use hidden, secondary assets in a surprise manner).

That was a good play, one of the the game’s two turning points. The other was the Rutgers quarterback being knocked out of the game. Both those plays were about Tulane as the active actor, winning tactical battles and achieving strategic success.Ultimately, they were indicative of "superior game-planning and execution". Certainly, not an absence of such.

Tulane simply has better players now- as the recruiting rebounds from the barrenness of the post-Katrina landscape. Things are getting back to normal in New Orleans- which simply isn’t the poor quality of the second half of Scelfo’s tenure. Prior to the program macro-disasters, Scelfo could beat teams in the top fifty on occasion: Hawai’i, Southern Miss, Mississippi State. I imagine, as the Review and Katrina recedes, Tulane is back on that sort of path.

* plus two more who don't play defense: Ginsburgh and Santos

Prediction Thursday- Rutgers

For the second week in a row, Prediction Thursday is a tricky proposition.

First, Tulane really took a physical beating last week- and I’m not sure about the health of quarterback Ryan Griffin. The back-up is definitely “out”- but unlike the Houston quarterback situation, I’m not sanguine about rolling our third option out there.

The second problem is that Vegas has caught up to the Green Wave’s under the radar improvement. Way back when, Mississippi was -21.5 over Tulane. Rutgers is clearly better than the Rebels (see here, and no FCS loss for one thing!)… figure they’d have been -27ish in that spot. Add in the venue switch, New Orleans to New Jersey- and this is a four TD game three weeks ago.

Now, it is Rutgers -15. Tulane is two TDs better now than "forecasted".

Of course, it means nothing in terms of actual wins and losses. But the outrageous bargain Tulane was against Mississippi... those days are over. Plus, Rutgers is, to quote a commentator on this blog, real “anonymous”. I feel I “know” Mississippi and our conference brethren. So, if it was gambling and luck last week (where I guessed right on the move around Houston -18.5/-19.5), this week it is real outright speculation.

Some bad intangibles here too. This is the third time in a row stepping up in class for Tulane- and I’m not sure the Green Wave roster is built for the stress of this sort of play week after week. But, this is also a classic trap game for Rutgers. A game sandwiched between North Carolina and an importnat Big East game with Connecticut. Does anyone doubt the Husky game film is loaded and ready in New Brunswick? I guess I sort of think they’ll break the Green Wave’s way- Tulane had a bye week in there, attitude is probably good in the locker room right now and it is still early in the season.

So, if Griffin plays, I am going to take the Wave here +15. Tulane has played back-to-back games with teams at the Rutgers level- and been in both contests late. So, until someone drills the Green Wave for a half-plus, I’m staying on the “Tulane is respectable” bandwagon.

Plus, Rutgers is no great shakes offensively: 13 versus North Carolina, 19(!!!) against FIU. I’m not sure QB Tom Savage would start at Tulane: 52% passer, 14 TDs in 285 attempts, sacked once in every eight attempts- not C-USA numbers, that is for sure. Hard to be a fifteen point favorite when the qb position is a draw at best. To be sure of reaching this kind of cover, Rutgers needs to score well into the 30s. That is just not likely to happen.

So we’ll try to stay perfect ATS (3-0), take Tulane +15 over Rutgers.

On The Banks

On The Banks has posted my guest post- check it out here.

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Continuing a tradition on here, the blog is being turned over to On The Banks- a fellow BlogPoll member representing Tulane’s host this week: Rutgers. I thank him for his effort. I will be guest posting over at his blog later this week.

My questions are in italics.

It has been twelve years since Tulane has visited Rutgers- I hardly recognize the program. Where is Rutgers and Big East football going over the next decade?

The Rutgers football program should keep trending upward, although the pace of improvement can be frustrating. It's proven easier to jump from bad to average than to become established as a top 25 program.

Give us someone to watch- who is the most underrated football player(s) on your team?

The defense has several standout players who don't get much attention on the national level. Defensive tackle Scott Vallone is the defense's best player, and generates a lot of pass rush on the interior line.

I’m bringing a group to the game. Any pre-game stuff or tailgating or fun we should look out for?

That depends on what your group is looking for. Visiting fans usually park and tailgate at the campus basketball arena, which is a bus ride away from the football. Directly adjacent to the stadium is the Scarlet Lot, which has a reputation as being frequented by long-term season ticket holders.

The younger crowd has been known to frequent the Yellow, Purple, and (especially) Blue lots, but those have been overrun in recent years by more of an older group as interest in the Rutgers football program has grown. The younger fans and students have been pushed back more to the outer lots now that are a fair walking distance from the stadium.

Before or after the game, your best bet for activities or a restaurant would be in downtown New Brunswick near the main Rutgers campus on College Avenue. That's where the train station is located. The football stadium is located at the other side of the Raritan River in Piscataway, on the school's Busch campus, and you will have to take a shuttle bus to travel between New Brunswick and Piscataway or vice versa. Most of the moderate-to-upscale options are located around George Street (a good portion of which is closed right now due to ongoing construction). If you want standard greasy spoon college fare (for the most part) and bars, then go west of College Avenue to Easton Avenue.

If none of that is to your liking, then there are countless major roadways that run through or near the area. Every major city in the Northeast is just a short train ride away too.

Your game prediction?

Tulane showed some life last week, but Houston is pretty beat up right now, and Tulane came out of that game with some injuries of their own. Rutgers is a very bad offensive team right now, but they have a good defense, and can force turnovers on that side of the ball or on special teams. Throw in home field advantage, and the Scarlet Knights should win this game comfortably.