Mostly Okay

I have to admit, I’m encouraged by the play of the Tulane Green Wave. Frankly, I have no idea what CBS Sportsline is thinking ranking them fourth from the bottom: how can the Wave be behind Akron? No offense, but the landscape is littered with teams that lost their FCS tune up or couldn’t play within four TDs of Ole Miss and their nifty quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. This squad has an outright pulse. In fact, while I’m not moving off my pick of three-four wins, the preponderance of evidence increasingly suggests something potentially north of there.

Anecdotally- like, real high level soft thinking- if you put three "above average", a few outright "average", and another few "below average" C-USA defenders out there, you probably net out to something like an average C-USA defense.

Well, don’t look now, but after a generation of futility, the Wave is sort of edging to that average territory. They have outright three above average defensive players: Ponce de Leon, Mackey, Smith. A few of the linemen look pretty darn servicable. Good health too.

Ole Miss is better than all but maybe one or two teams on our schedule- and the Wave kept them to sane numbers, even controlled them for long stretches in the second half. I mean, try this on for size: Mississippi could not run it a lick. They really, really tried- and could not do it. That is two weeks a row of serviceable, middle of the road C-USA style defensive competence… rather than the not normal, yet seemingly routine 500 yards and 42 points. Tulane is simply better over there than last year…. and increasingly, dare I say it, average?

And I thought Ryan Griffin played well again too. What do the detractors want? 21-for-30, 203 yards. A 70% completion percentage is FANTASTIC. It is also necessary in an offense where you eschew the run frequently, thus giving up the traditional device for consistently creating favorable down and distance situations. Plus, one pick in 56 attempts! That is no fluke either, his career number is seven picks in 278 attempts.

People grumble. He does fumble too much- and yes, Tulane isn’t getting enough of the big, 25-yard pass play. Going forward, they need to flip field position and score some cheap ones. But the big pass play in this offense is generated via hitting the receivers in stride, or in the seam, or on the double move- not gunning a deep out. I do not possess any insights about whether he is throwing to the right guys in stride. But I suspect the totals will pick up when Griffin starts seeing some more suspect defensive secondaries with DB problems, ie. most of C-USA plus Army. Hooray!

I will also point out this red shirt sophomore is doing this all without a single serious candidate for even third team all C-USA on offense.

The red zone issues are harder to solve. I’m not sure they are part and parcel of the quarterback really. Tulane really doesn’t have the talent to rush the football when they opponent knows it is coming- particularly in the increasingly cramped box as the offense approaches the goal. Also, who is the big, in traffic receiver- the pro-set style tight end? Tulane doesn’t really recruit that spot- and it shows when our tight ends can’t get open or block the red zone offense. The biggest on-field failure of this regime is the inability to recruit and develop top skill players- and it hurts when they need a guy to win a one on one assignment to get a sliver of space to score (thus the goal line trickery).

But, Coach Toledo has done a good job this year. No one dogged the coach more than this blog. But man, he has shut his mouth. No more complaints about the lack of support at parking lot parades, no more speeches about teaching us how to win, thus no more built in player excuses.

His run/pass mix was 29 rushes/36 passes- better and better. He is learning. His game plans showed an eye toward the conference schedule- some of the more vanilla plays and looks were designed situationally: see if any of the o-line could push the pile third and one, give some young skill players more touches than warranted to figure out exactly what you have. The quarterback is secure, not looking over his shoulder and developing nicely for the thirty-plus starts he has left in his career here.

Bottom line- the defense increasingly strikes me as an outfit that can keep a good C-USA offense between 28-35, unlike the 40+ disasters of previous years. And I think the offense can score 20+ consistently- which means not only are the days of horrific blow outs potentially over, but also some games with mediocre C-USA teams might be in play. An average offense plus an average defense means a chance to run at .500 in the League.

Prediction Thursday- Mississippi

Frank Helps You Think It All Out is faced with an odd game this weekend. We sort of know what Tulane is- a team with just enough offense to eek through a game with SE Louisiana. But what on earth do we have with the Rebels?

There is some juice here too. If you were to ask the Green Wave fan what program they loathe the most, it might shock you the number of Tulanians that answered with a ringing “Ole Miss!” Ed Orgeron’s attempt to loot the Tulane football program of players in the aftermath of Katrina will not be forgotten easily here:

Controversy arose for Mississippi and Orgeron after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. One of the most affected institutions was Tulane University. After Tulane football players were displaced by Hurricane Katrina, Orgeron contacted Tulane football players regarding the future of their football program and the possibility of transferring to Ole Miss.

Tulane head coach Chris Scelfo was less than pleased with the idea. Scelfo criticized Orgeron after the incident, called those coaches or administrators connected to the Tulane controversy "lower than dirt" and later stated that "there's people in our business who do not belong in our business".

Particularly disgusting- as Mississippi, as our closest neighbors, were watching us drown. And Orgeron’s behavior drew not a singular peep of rebuke from the Ole Miss fans or administration.

Just low. Without class. You wouldn’t see Penn State do that. Heck, you wouldn't see Mississippi State do that. Part and parcel of trying to get burgler Jeremiah Masoli on campus, rather than off campus as soon as frickin' possible.

Anyway, the official line provider of Prediction Thursday is the New York Post- and they have put up Mississippi -21 over Tulane. Hey Vegas, just who again won their warm up tilt versus FCS opposition last weekend?

Analyzing this game can demonstrate the power the NFL has over our thinking. An NFL team loses an embarrassing game- and you can expect predictably pundits (and bloggers) to forecast a strong bounce back effort. After all, no one likes humiliation.

I’m not disagreeing with that. But the NFL offers a weekly slate of very competitive games between teams with much more equal talent bases than BCS football: the sourcing of talent is much fairer, the retention of talent equitable, a salary cap. Talent disparity is simply not as large a part of the pro game. Heck, even “good” teams lose four, five games. So intangibles- like excess motivation after a troublesome beating, coaching or injuries- become key criteria.

But in this sort of game- a three TD spread- mere intangibles don’t come close to addressing the disparity presented. That sort of raw inequality is ability, talent- an imbalance that is pretty routine in college football, albeit normally not as great as this specific game. It can be a sort of test: anyone who analyzes most pro games by looking for major roster talent discrepancies and, in turn, most college games by coaching, individual match-ups and injuries doesn’t understand the game of football.

This should not be taken to extremes. The Saints do have a clear talent edge on the Rams. Losing Sam Bradford hurt the Sooners.

But conversely, the fact that Ole Miss ought to be roaring here matters little. If desperation can move a pro line from -5 to -3, that is significant. But moving a college line from -24 to -21 is not as significant.

It is unimportant because Ole Miss appears wanting from a larger issue, the college football issue: talent. The secondary looked poor and the front seven overrated.

So, playing a full four quarters rather than pulling in the dogs late protecting the lead, Tulane can turn last week’s 27 points into something like 17-20 here… while keeping the ball some too. That means Ole Miss needs to score something like 40ish here to cover with 33 minutes ToP. I dunno- seems unlikely- particularly since the Rebels ain’t Florida (offense in excess) and also will be looking to run the ball, move that clock, in order to protect their suspect defense too.

So let’s try and move the mark to 2-0 ATS (last week’s pick was straight up) by taking Tulane +21 over Mississippi.