Death By Situational Left-Handers

Last night featured a disappointing loss for the Phillies. They hit four dingers off the Mets’ ace Johan Santana, got a free run and a big out from the home plate umpire, then turn a lead over to the ‘pen- and lose. Just brutal. Tonight is not a must win game by any stretch- but they are only a narrow favorite in Vegas- and a loss means the Mets are just about even in National League east.

And “just about even” is not good. All the good things the Phillies have done so far are wiped out- as they start back by definition at ground zero. I’m not really blaming the Phillies; it isn’t about them. Despite a post-season hangover to start the season, they’re on pace to win well over 90 games. Nevertheless, despite all the sniggering and snarky local ink and condescion the Mets’ have been forced to digest for eighteen months, New York has been managing this current hand pretty darn well. Ravaged with injuries, yet New York is keeping very near the pace.

That is cause for concern. Add a big new top of the rotation guy to the Mets, get a few of their injured guys back- they’re real trouble. Add Roy Halladay to their rotation, could the Phillies hold a somewhat healthy Mets team off? My answer is “doubtful”- on paper no way, but it is the Mets... Still, don’t kid yourself, the Mets are going to blow up the farm system if necessary this year. This is this core group of Mets last chance to win. They will be unreal aggressive- particularly if the Phillies can’t get separation.

The Mets really should be buried right seven-eight games back now. Again, it isn't about the Phillies. Outside of Lidge, they have done their part to make it so. But the Mets hang in.

First, due to K-Rod, they win every game they should.

Second, we all know about match-ups- and the Mets' match-up well with the Phillies late in games. Frankly, the Mets have proven they can play that six-seven inning game with the Phillies. A baseball season is about finding repeatable formulas, and while the Mets don’t have many repeatable scenarios in their everyday players and rotation (past Santana of course), the Mets definitely do have one to end games. If they are even or ahead after six, they are real trouble. K-Rod is lights out, Parnell is a quality set-up guy, and their situation lefty Pedro Feliciano gives them one free pass through our line-up’s wheelhouse. A quality ‘pen lefty counts double versus Philadelphia. Last night was particularly disgusting, Howard and Ibanez looked pretty lost versus Feliciano.

That bullpen day after day, and that bullpen’s effect on the head-to-head match-ups between the clubs, is the difference between today’s two game lead and the Mets kicking around with the Marlins. To their credit, the Mets have taken these two bits of serendipity and parlayed them into a mere two game deficit despite injuries that should have marooned them below .500.

Doom

You know, even before this Johan Santana trade, I was totally disabused of the notion the Mets are trying to “catch” the Phillies. Yes, those dogged Phillies won National League East. But with 89 wins… well, I’m not saying hand that title back. I am not saying that it is unfair or somehow ill-gotten. But I also realize that this division championship was more about the paucity of the choking opposition, than any really true merit in the Phillies club.

The Mets were the Vegas favorite to win NL East- even before this trade. So, I disagree this was some sort of trade to balance the power in NL East. Frankly, New York ain’t in any rebuilding mode- they are in a win-now mode.

Consequently, the Mets acquisition of Johann Santana is something they had to do, because it makes their team immediately a lot better. He is one of a small handful of players that makes a team eight-to-ten games better. One can overthink these things, right? The Mets added a super pitcher, without subtracting any major league talent. Jayson Stark does his normally astute analysis here. But again, while the lack of having an immediate roster move from AAA is a potential problem for the Mets, the lack of said move isn’t costing them ten games.

That being said… it is a gamble. This simply isn’t a total slam dunk for the Mets- in the sense that while this is a good trade for 2008, it is organizationally problematic at some level.

Frankly, I’m so invested in the theory that “the road to ruin in baseball is throwing big dollars and multiple years to thirty-something pitchers with increasing wear whose value is sure to decline” to back up now. From a “players on the field” standpoint, Santana is a lay-up. But the Mets have undoubtedly taken a lot of organizational flexibility away. This is essentially a free agent contract Santana is getting- and the thing about free agency is that you pay the top dollar per win generated. No one else with your capacity to pay (here- say eight or so other clubs), almost by definition, thinks the guy is worth more. A free agent move is a sign of weakness- not strength. You are paying up the most- because you have a big problem.

So there is potential for substantial opportunity cost here. If Santana’s deal is 7 years, $150 million… well, what really is the over/under on Johann’s win total over that time span? One hundred wins? It is an interesting question; I know I’d take the under at 90. And figure Kyle Kendrick’s o/u for the next 7 years is fifty wins (at like $120M less).

The opportunity cost is mitigated; one big institutional advantage the Mets have over the Phillies is the ability to routinely spend $20-40M more per campaign on talent. That surplus now goes largely to Santana- and what figures to be a plus now will hopefully be an aging albatross in four years. So the trade on paper is an overwhelming win for the Mets- but perhaps in reality notsomuch. I still think the Mets come out ahead (I would have done it)- but more narrowly than most think now.

What Victory Looks Like!

So very, very, very sad.


Somewhere Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick are soft tossing. Billy Wagner and Tom Glavine are not.

I had wanted the Yankees- but the Red Sox will do just fine also!

Behind the Mets' 8-Ball

It has fallen to Paul Hagen to write the latest Phillies think-piece in the local papers- full of the requisite hang-wringing and evasion. Paul encapsulates their problems professionally:

On paper, the Phillies haven't had the best talent in the National League East this season. Not with Freddy Garcia winning only once before going on the disabled list; closer Tom Gordon sidelined by a strained rotator cuff after nine appearances; Brett Myers shelved with a strained right shoulder; only four home runs from the third-base position; reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard missing time with a strained left quadriceps; leftfielder Pat Burrell seeing less and less playing time as his average slips toward .200; and a bullpen era (4.79) that entered yesterday fourth worst in the league.

To read that, it is frankly a sort of wonder that the Phillies are hanging around. But to me, the wonder is misplaced. The Phillies 40-36 mark is directly reflective of the myriad of concerns listed above. Well- that and the injuries they’ve suffered haven’t been a season-ending disaster (for the most part). Ryan was going so bad, that it actually helped the club to get Howard out of the line-up for a few days. Garcia was no great shakes- replacing him with a AAA player meant they were able to keep his 5-ish ERA in the rotation; as the Sharp Cereal Professor would say: nothing wrong here! Alfonseco has been the best closer they’ve had this year- and got his job by default. The Phillies aren’t bad, the injuries short term haven’t mattered much- but they simply aren’t real great either.

It feels mysterious because their level of contention is not merely a reflection of them. Candidly, it is mostly a reflection of the Mets. When the Mets were cruising to a super 100-win season, the Phillies wholly lacked the essentials, the winning criteria, to get to that sort of number. But when the Mets go out there and tank two dozen games in three weeks- well, heck, Philly can do better than that! Even with Rollins batting lead-off!

I think the Phillies are on a sort of glide path to 85-88 wins- it is up to the Mets to decide if that is competitive in National League East or not.