Velayat-e Faqih

Watching the Bears defeat the Vikings on Monday night, I got a chance to watch the further deterioration of Matt Forté from “star rookie” to something less than pedestrian.

This season he has had one 100 yard rushing day (versus the horrid Lions) and six, count’em six, efforts where he couldn’t break 34 yards. Forté had 22 touches for 67 yards versus the Packers: could not get outside, could not break tackles, totally could not get open (one catch). He has one carry of over 17 yards in 242 attempts! That is emblematic of a guy who has lost a step.

I’ve always had sort of a complex relationship with Forté. Aside from his marvelous senior campaign (and it was a total marvel, a genuine Heisman candidate), he was frankly a pretty jejune C-USA skill player. Clearly, when healthy and motivated, Forte is marvelously quick. He isn’t particularly a strong runner; he isn't in the NFL to knock people over. But he could be fast to the hole or perimeter. Defenders can’t congregate- and worse for them, Matt can make people miss. A lot of C-USA and NFL players can get away from defenders outside the tackles- but Matt could do it inside, in traffic, as well. This made him a dual inside/outside threat, a guy who did not need a whole lot of blocking, a guy who could run away from trouble and get a second option on a stuffed play.

But he isn’t completely healthy much (like his first three years at Tulane)- and he isn’t a player who plays well “hurt”. It isn’t a courage thing- but more that a strong-on-his-feet back can be half-a-tick slow, but still carry people. That isn’t Matt.

I wonder if Matt is done? He had a crazy workload as a rookie- and Toledo did not exactly protect his future earning potential at Tulane with the workload he assigned a player with such an obvious “career carry meter”. Even we know the NFL running back only has so many hits in him. Based on his checkered undergrad career, Forté figured to have fewer quality touches than most. I’m not exactly sure Toledo had his pro career in mind with the extreme total load Forté carried. Matt may have left two good NFL years on the field his last year in New Orleans.

Value

I’m no expert on the draft- other than ESPN highlights I haven’t seen most of these guys play, let alone analyze them. But sources say Tulane tailback Matt Forté ran well- which is part and parcel for any C-USA player going as a first day selection.

Let’s put it this way. Any list that doesn’t include Forte as a Top 12 prospect at the RB position, well, those doubts are generated by the League young Forté played in than anything about said specific player.

My gut feeling is that there is a “list” of RBs who have a reasonable expectation of being able to play in the NFL. Further, I imagine that collective of talent is just below another collective: the “can’t miss” tailbacks. I’m sure Forte is on that first “reasonable expectation” list- but not considered a bullet-proof selection.

The problem that he runs into is a lot of guys on that “legit prospect list” don’t bring the same competition risk: the risk that the success one observes from C-USA players is occasionally more a measure of the paucity they played against and our League’s bias toward ridiculous carton offensive numbers.

Outside of the quarterback position, the draft produces enough first day selections that can populate both the aforementioned “can’t miss” & “could miss- but still a legit prospect” lists- and further don’t require a leap of faith vis-à-vis the competition that player faced. Unless you have Forté substantially projected ahead of a tailback from Alabama or UCLA or Penn State, you’re not taking that competition risk- at least not until later in the selection process.

To that end, I think the pool of TB talent from the eighth selection to the fifteenth selection features pretty much the same value expectation: can play, but not an indisputable franchise back. But Forte’s league, and not the player himself, makes him vulnerable to slipping outside the top ten TBs selected.

I mean, you can’t tell me that, for instance, Jamaal Charles is a stone lock to be a better pro than Forte. But he played at Texas- so you can be more confident that his on-field credentials are legit.

That isn’t Matt’s fault of course, but this is the NFL baby. I’m sure we all remember the Eagles’ defensive front devouring the hapless Saints running game this year.