I Love A Parade

This site- which links to the City of Philadelphia’s application for a parade permit- might be very useful very soon!

Certainly, Bill Conlin seems pleased in the PDN:

I don't know if there is an all-points bulletin out for Ruben Amaro in Ohio, but there should be. Grand Theft. Really grand.

Everyone seems pleased- as the Phillies were able to acquire Cliff Lee, the 2008 Cy Young Award winner, for none of the untouchable top four (J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Dom Brown and Michael Taylor). I won’t pretend to know anything about the four prospects the Phillies did send- other than to say the Phillies are about 2009 and 2010- and this trade obviously makes them better now.

Lee’s won-loss record isn’t great- but everything else is good. The ERA of 3.14 was generated in a hitters’ park- and should decline with the weaker bottom half NL line-ups he’ll now face. He leads the AL in innings pitched and doesn’t walk people- a huge criteria for success in Philadelphia where even the best pitchers are going to give the long ball. He should drop neatly into as a role as a huge “plus” number two starter. And let’s face, for five years or so now- since Brett Myers, the Kevin Gross of our generation, was anointed the number two option, this has been a glaring need for the Philadelphia Phillies. Of the ten or so key players you need to win a title, Game Two and Six starter was the weakest element of the Phillies hand. And this step solves that problem.

Plus, Lee is only 30- and makes about half of Halladay. These are not insignificant considerations. Should the Phillies want to lock him up, the fact that Lee is scheduled to be grossly underpaid next year gives them leverage- and I’m a lot less concerned about tacking four years onto the end of his deal than a pitcher who was two years older.

As predicted here, the Phillies seem an increasingly lock to win the NL East. With 100 games in the bank after tonight, the math starts to work ruthlessly against the division rivals- teams needing to win 2/3rds of their games for eight weeks? That is a hard road. With the best-of-five first round, married to this bullpen’s current back-end cast of characters, nothing in the play-offs is going to be routine. In fact, now that the Phillies have surplus rotation options, Happ still looks real trade-able to me. He is still a guy at the top of his value; Happ is never gonna be 7-2 making rookie money again, right? And the Phillies have a need for more lights-out ‘pen options.

Someone Has To Be Kevin Gross

Do you ever get the feeling that Brett Myers is the Kevin Gross of this generation?

Like Gross, Myers has a plethora of major league pitches- but somehow the sum is less than the whole. Consequently, he is sort of sentenced to kick around .500- with some upside as an innings eater when healthy.

Most starting pitchers seem to sort into two categories- guys who pitch off a superior pitch (Hamels and the change-up, Kendrick and the sinker) or guys who try to mix and match three/four quality pitches. Myers is the latter obviously- which leads me to the two problems with Brett Myers.

First, it makes me crazy when people say he should throw his fastball more. I don’t get it. He isn’t a power pitcher- his fastball features okay velocity, very little movement and does little to set up his average change. He has to spot it- because it is real hittable. Who doesn’t cringe when Myers has to challenge a good hitter? He should throw the fastball less- and really mix pitches.

Saying a guy should "mix pitches" more is easy of course. But Myers is a decent strike-out pitcher- but he fans guys by throwing the fastball in non-fastball situations and throwing quality off-speed stuff. Like a lot of strike-out pitchers, he’s going to walk guys because of deep counts. Fine- but since we’re okay with him walking a few extra guys- then fewer fastballs please- because he has real problems throwing the fastball in hitter’s counts.

Second, again, he does strike people out. But most plus big league starters have that “bury you” pitch. They get ahead in the count and you’re fishing after that slider away or chasing high heat. Myers doesn’t have that drop dead pitch that he can throw off the plate, somewhere un-hittable, when he’s ahead in the count.

I don’t know how you fix that problem- moving him up from 7Ks per nine innings- to an elite level. I guess that is why he is a .500 pitcher.

Back To Complain

If the first game with the Mets showcased all that was right with the Phillies: a team that plays hard for its leadership, a consistent 27-out effort, strong bullpen, a line-up littered with RBI bats- last night illustrated an awful lot of what is wrong.

Part of why Manuel is a players’ manager, why guys play for him, is his never ending confidence in them. Howard can hit .190 for half a season- and there is no thought of moving him out of the clean-up spot til he gets going.

But, concerning Brett Myers and Jimmy Rollins, enough is enough.

The Phillies have managed to take Rollins, a very good player having an admittedly iffy year, and turned him into a run-eating cancer. Last night was yet another1-for-4 night, no walks. You could survive his not so good .333 OBP as a lead off hitter when he was having an MVP year. But when he’s hitting .270 with a few HRs, you frankly can’t- particularly when there are options available with better OBP who aren’t currently trying bat after bat to set the table. Werth (.357 OBP) and Victorino (.350). Heck, just lead Werth off against LHP (.380)

Even worse, Rollins doesn’t have to be a cancer. He is hitting a decent .270, with some consistent extra-base pop, and a good RBI bat… he is a very credible six hitter in a line-up that needs one, or even the two-hole. I understand the loyalty to Rollins, I fully supported giving half-a-season to get his stuff worked out. But enough is enough- out of the lead-off spot he goes until he starts to hit again.

Second is Myers. You can’t give up on Myers. He has major league stuff- and the Phillies can start all over with him in the bullpen next year as a whole new official chance.

But these arguments that he has to be allowed to pitch through trouble to “find out what we have” are done, over. We know what we have for 2008- an AAA-level starter with confidence issues. If the Phillies want to run him out there a few more times- a tacit admission that the fifth rotation spot is held by an AAA-level pitcher with some ceiling (which admittedly is true a lot of the time in baseball, even on good teams)- I’m fine.

But this pro-baseball. If he walks three guys in an inning, etc.- he’s out. Myers is not an experiment any more- with an eye toward sacrificing two-three starts in May for two dozen quality efforts down the road. Frankly, Eaton is just hanging around right now, they have many credible long relief guys that- as the season winds down, no longer need to be saved for 162 game marathon. Have some one ready when Myers starts. If we’re going to carry twelve pitchers, have one dedicated to supporting the emotional cripple that is currently Myers.