Saturday, May 19, 2007

Baltimore's Second Biggest Event

Today’s Preakness is the second biggest event in Baltimore this summer- and about as straightforward as they come. First, only Hard Spun has run a Beyer number even close to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Street Sense's recent Derby outing towers over the rest of the field by six-seven lengths. Second, anything almost has to be better than last year's awful disaster involving that horse who NBC loves. Look at the picture: the whole crowd watching Barbaro break down, ignoring Bernardini romping home

So you are forced to evaluate: do you like the 7-to-5 price on the champ?- does it give you a fair return on your investment?

Ugh. I think Street Sense will win- I doubt he is a super horse, but he is clearly better than this collection- and the chance for an off track probably helps. The price to win is bad though.

And it is bad probably in the exotics too- but I like some of the longer chances on the board today to run well- so I think we can justify some small wagers on some exactas.

Circular Quay, Curlin and King Of the Roxy all have career Beyers in the 98-100 range- so if Street Sense manages to get this done today all will figure to angle for the second spot. Most of the new cast of characters in here don’t seem like real legit threats to hit theboard- lots of Beyers in the 80s & 90s, and you probably need a 100+ to be in this thing. Obviously, Hard Spun ran a courageous race in the Derby- but he is absolutely a candidate to bounce in this spot, setting that quick pace two weeks ago in Louisville.

The Derby just felt like a better risk-reward spot than here- there were a lot of moving parts that were pretty fairly priced. This has a clear favorite, some decent competitors (headed up by Hard Spun). It isn’t that it is boring- just pretty straight forward.

So, even though there is no score in it, I’ll take a chance with my most likely outcome- and try to get paid. $10 exactas: Street Sense over Circular Quay, Curlin and King Of the Roxy.

Labels: , ,