Stop Driving Aimlessly!

I’m not a curmudgeon. And I enjoyed the race at Bristol yesterday. I like when Carl Edwards’ flips. But I am increasingly convinced that part and parcel of this Race for the Chase is incomplete as designed. Whether you like the new format or not, it provides new competitive stresses on the nature of the competition- stresses teams are increasingly figuring out to the detriment of the weekly racing.

Teams always knew that all you had to do in these first 26 races was make the cut: the top twelve spots. But increasingly, the efficient methodology chosen to do that is to simply lock in top fifteen finishes every chance you get. Run seventh or eleventh or something similar- and then just make laps, run out the clock on the day.

Now teams have always sought to protect good days. But it is increasingly ridiculous and boring. The incentive structure has changed. Running just out of the Top Ten used to mean you lost points, possibly to multiple drivers, which would have to be made up. Now the drivers don’t lose anything, NASCAR makes it all up in one fell swoop- if you can get to their magic cut-off level. So that is the new carrot- not to stay close points-wise to the leaders- but to just get to NASCAR’s marker.

In the old days, with Gordon and Burton and Johnson holding an ever growing 200 point lead- guys like Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer could not be content with riding around twelfth- without at least trying to change the status quo. But today, their tactics are rewarded. Put it this way. Prior to the Chase, Bowyer and Edwards would have been dissatisfied with their day at Bristol. Now, they are right on schedule- pleased as punch to have furthered their chances to make the coming cut.

NASCAR has to start rewarding guys now more for winning, or finishing top five, in the first part of the season. The enticement problem fixes itself in the Chase- so I don’t care- as you got to chase the leader then. The old way rewarded consistency over the season and encouraged high car counts (important in the 1970-90s)- so a bonus was actually counter-productive. The current system clearly provides an incentive to happy with eleventh place- so you gotta do more to discourage that complacency.