Wednesday, March 08, 2006

We Seem To Play The Herd A Lot

For a lot of college basketball programs, conference tournament time is a period of excitement and hope. It is a chance to validate in-season success- or fix your season with three-four days of good play.

But at Tulane, basketball tournaments never bring real joy. They're like negotiating with Iran; it is almost certainly going to end badly no matter what, yet the rules insist you gotta show up. One more chance to grind away toward a result other than a bad one.

Tulane can’t win this tournament. Even if the guys win a game, it merely gains them the right to get absolutely smoked by a fresh Memphis squad, in front of a cheery mob in Memphis, tomorrow. And anything short of total victory brings the Wave no closer to even an NIT bid. So it is a slog- and to complete the proof- today’s first round match-up features a thoroughly anonymous Marshall (seeded ninth) sporting a -1.5 over the Green Wave (eighth).

Tulane bombed the Herd by like a thousand earlier this year (look at the mug on Ron Jirsa)- but regardless, this line is not really an outrage. Obviously the "smart guys" who compute these things are not convinced the recent nice stretch of play by the Wave have fundamentally altered the nature of Tulane basketball: diffident talent incapable of consistently generating an A-effort away from Fogelman Arena.

I know zero about Marshall- but I must admit I sort of lean toward taking the Wave here. These are both kinda bad mid-major teams (think LaSalle 1995-2005)- but you get two pluses on the Tulane side. The Wave has played to their capabilites lately- and ought to again. They're probably a little better now than their overall record indicates. And they did handle this Marshall team pretty handily- so you know they can defend them.

So, to me- you get a Tulane team that ought to give their best effort, playing a team they can probably hold under sixty points? I'm okay with that. I'll take those points- and plan to watch Tulane tomorrow.