Frank Helps You Think It All Out

The End

2011-03-09T10:23:00.000-05:00

I had planned a farewell message- but even thinking about it seemed maudlin. I have nothing more to say.

Thanks for reading. Thanks for participating.

And now, I'm off to the bar at Tujague's. See you around friends.

Tooling Around The Past

2011-03-04T10:07:00.004-05:00

Tooling around Tulane’s recent football history, I was struck by how generationally Tulane hits utter rock-bottom. First, Tulane has the end of the utterly uncompetitive SEC era- from 1957-1965, Tulane never won more than one SEC game in a given season. Second, the Green Wave suffered the horrid collapse of the the English regime in the seventies, followed in the 90s by the incompetent Buddy Teevens (11-45).

Now, while it is not utter rock bottom, we have had eight years of post-review, post-Katrina football- and only once in that time has Tulane posted four I-A wins.

These downturns are probably inevitable given Tulane’s place in the strategic pecking order. Tulane is not top-40 in attendance, tradition, money, etc. - which not only make prolonged runs in the top of college football impossible, but also make runs in the bottom inevitable.

Still, it always picks back up. Which gives me a chance to revisit some of my favorite themes on here as the blog wrap begins.

The very nature of “conference play” brings teams together. The bottom teams do not have to re-invent the wheel, the success metrics frequently are right in front of them. If your football team is 1-7 in the League, there is usually enough to copy, that is not unique, to the 7-1 conference team.

Bill James made a good living writing about this recognition- Law of Competitive Balance: the .500 record exerts a powerful pull. Below .500, you are not a slave to the status quo- you are willing to experiment. Tommy Bowden’s revolutionary new offense in 1997 was not coming from Southern Miss- but rather a football team with real woes.

The experimentation and risk-embracing culture doesn’t always work- see Toledo’s Forte offense. But sometimes it does- and you get your once every fifteen years renaissance.

The other note is that every change in Tulane’s fortune- even modest- was driven by a coach who knew what he was doing. Tulane was hopeless when it left the SEC in 1965- and was promptly ranked multiple years (1970, 1973, 1979)- as some decent to good coaches wandered through: Jim Pittman, Bennie Ellender, Larry Smith. Mack Brown picked Tulane off the deck in the 80s. Tommy Bowden was arguably the best coach in America for two years in 1997-98.

The point is- after the Top 25 player list and Top 25 game list- a lot of good players and good wins filter through here. It ramps up when a serious leader steps forward. Even with four, five year regimes, Tulane has probably three chances a decade to get it right. The strategic problems are insurmountable right now- but I still have faith in a tactical renaissance. If there were an over/under line in Vegas: Tulane Bowl wins the next four years at 0.5, I’d take the over pretty willingly.

Top 25 Players: #1

2011-02-28T14:59:00.003-05:00

Looking back at the Mack Brown orchestrated renaissance of mid-80s Tulane football, I am struck at how some things never change. He rebuilt Texas the exact same way- an emphasis on mobile, athletic quarterbacks and oodles of receiving talent.

I’ve worn out the keyboard here explaining just how much harder it was for Tulane to win in that Brown era, how much broader the talent base had to be to merely be .500 as a regional independent, faving week-after-week of the SEC and other quality independents: Florida State, Louisville.

Those Mack Brown teams were loaded with skill players- beginning with the quarterback Terrence Jones. Jerome McIntosh, Michael Pierce, Melvin Ferdinand, Maurice Nelson and Larry Route were all guys who would start ahead of anyone on Tulane’s receiving corps today.

But the best was Marc Zeno- the only Tulane position player to be an All-American on this list.

#1. Marc Zeno, WR (1984-1987)

Is that a groan I hear? This community has not taken well to ancient Tulane star players.

Still, Marc Zeno was created to catch football passes, nurtured in a perfect environment to catch said passes. A big target, tall and strong, good speed, excellent hands. He had a quarterback who could deliver the ball, a good running game to keep teams honest and a plethora of secondary receiving options to divert attention.

Still, Wally English could not find ways to get him on the field. But Brown did not suffer from that limitation of imagination. Zeno quickly became Ken Karcher’s favorite target- setting single season marks in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (1137)- including 208 yards versus LSU. Zeno would again break these same records as a senior (77 for 1206) with Jones pitching.

All those aforementioned skill players, coupled with high quality quarterbacking, turned Tulane into a pre C-USA offensive nightmare. Tulane just rolled teams on offense. The 1987 Independence Bowl team smashed every Tulane scoring record- and Zeno was particularly unstoppable. He left Tulane with the NCAA mark for career receiving yards (3725 yards). And despite a plethora of cartoon number receivers and quarterbacks that have filtered through here- he still holds Tulane’s career marks for catches and receiving yards (500+ more than Roydell Williams, about 700 more than JuJuan Dawson).

That NCAA career receiving record was no joke either. The pro-set offense had been in place for awhile- and big number offenses were percolating in the WAC and at Miami. Doug Flutie had already graduated- the college passing game was alive.

Plus, the Tulane schedule was again no joke either- littered with quality independents and BCS teams. There were no vacations for the offense- no five or six games against poor defenses, go hang 400+ yards on Rice and Army and UAB and I-AA squads.

Zeno was just consistent. With good hands and other receiving distractions present, you could just pencil him in for real good production again and again: 17 100-yard receiving games (still a record). The 100-yard day was a real achievement in the 80s. Immediate contemporaries at Tulane had a mere handful: Ursin had seven, McIntosh had five, Cook had three. Then look at these outfits Zeno put his 100-yard games up against: Washington, Iowa State, LSU (three times), Mississippi, Mississippi State (twice), Southern Miss, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Memphis, TCU, Louisville (twice), TCU (twice). No UL-Monroe there.

He was a consensus All-American in 1987, and made some teams in 1986, the only player on this list to have two seasons of such national recognition.

After the 1987 campaign, Zeno had a poor off-season prepping for the NFL. He hurt his knee in workouts- and never was truly healthy again. The whispers went out too, and his stock plummeted- a seventh round pick of Steelers.

A seventh rounder has to impress quick or play special teams- Zeno did neither. He kicked around the CFL- but like Terrence Jones, he was a better all-around player, he lacked the great pro-skill or two. Add in some gimpiness- and he never got much chance to make a sustained impact. Teams will take a sustained chance on either a potentially great or healthy player- and Zeno was a gimpy, good one. It just became easy to give his roster spot away to a higher potential or healthier player- particularly in light of his inability to help the return game.

Top 25 Players: Honorable Mention

2011-02-25T11:54:00.004-05:00

These guys were on my short list- but ultimately did not make the cut:

Erik Bruce, OG (1991-1994)- he could block, some good seasons lost amid the suffocating mediocrity.

Toney Converse, FB (1997-1999)- ideal west coast offense fullback and potential NFL draft pick, went to jail.

Floyd Dorsey, DE (1999-2002)- all C-USA player, many sacks.

PJ Franklin, WR (1995-1998)- obviously, right time, right place player- but good numbers. Ultimately a great complimentary player?

Jerry Godfrey, OL (1996-1999)- the tackles stole the show, but Bowden inherited some great offensive linemen.

Pete Hendrickson, OT (2007-2010)- high quality C-USA tackle with an absolute ton of good starts.

Jeff Liggon, WR (1993-1996)- perhaps the best special teams player in Tulane history, fourth all time in career yardage.

Trent Mackey, LB (2010-present)- unfinished, but what defensive player had that sort of impact season?

Dennis O'Sullivan, DL (1995-1998)- took the NFL to get him in the right position on offense, but hard to argue for such an extreme change in the face of such team success

Brad Palazzo, K (1995-1998)- in the class of Seth Marler

Lester Ricard, QB (2004-2006)- the poster child for Tulane football post-Bowden

Casey Roussel, P (1999-2001)- great, great, great punter

Tookie Spann, DB (1985-1987)- quality player, strong, athletic, heady.

Jeremy Williams, WR (2006-2009)- what C-USA is all about! big numbers! but ultimately, hard to value.

Top 25 Players: #2

2011-02-23T13:53:00.000-05:00

Almost as quickly as the Bowden miracle happened, it ended even quicker.

Not capriciously, of course. But the advantages fell away quickly. Bowden’s offense and methodology were quickly copied (Dave Ragone was a 1999 recruit), ending a brief interlude of tactical superiority. There were some good players, notably at quarterback, but Bowden’s approach was a huge part of this success. And it was over.

The last vestiges of the latent advantage of regional independent recruiting slipped away- as bottom feeding C-USA talent procurement took hold. And, as frequently happens, an exceptional season features an exceptional talent concentration- and most key actors simply left, hastening the talent decline. Two quick coaching changes meant lost recruiting focus two years in three- and Bowden didn’t do much recruiting anyway.

So a lot of talent chickens came home to roost in 1999 as Chris Scelfo took the reins.

#2. Patrick Ramsey, QB (1998-2001)

Patrick Ramsey came to Tulane in 1997 as an odd recruit. He was a track and field star- already by 18, one the great javelin throwers in the history of US track-and-field, the holder of an actual medal at the Pan Am Games. He played football as an afterthought- and it took personal lobbying by Louisiana State great Bert Jones to get Ramsey into Tulane very late.

So he had that great arm- the only Tulane quarterback with a true “plus” NFL arm of the past 25 years. But he was not real quick, and certainly not accurate in high school. It seemed a shame to waste that rocket in a spread the ball, check down C-USA offense. If there was a guy who screamed drop back passer, protect me and I’ll get you big plays down field, it was Ramsey. Add in the incumbent Shaun King, and he was an easy red-shirt.

Yet, the buzz was there. There was zero speculation, even during the Perfect Season, who was the heir apparent at quarterback. Coaches adored his arm. And he turned out to have the same high football IQ as Shaun King- but with an actual NFL skill set to go with it. Scelfo made the decision to shoehorn Ramsey into a distribution offense.

As a sophomore, Ramsey was sensational right out of the gate – setting the school record with 3410 passing yards as a first year starting quarterback. He immediately set 20 Tulane passing records, including single season records for passing yards, attempts, and completions- shattering the season passing records set the year before.

He was simply a wonderful three year quarterback at Tulane. After setting all the season records as a sophomore, Ramsey left as a first round draft pick with nearly all of the school’s career passing records, including yardage, touchdowns, completions and attempts. Records he still holds today and in many cases, not by a little.

Ultimately, for all the noise and evaluation, playing quarterback in C-USA is about throwing the football, completing many passes and piling up totals. And Ramsey was the best.

Does it surprise you that the big-armed, big play Ramsey has the highest career completion percentage in Tulane history? He lost a few points on that percentage, and threw some picks, because that big arm had to be utilized outside the context of dink-and-dunk- but in the rote possession offense, he had no equal. He never played with more than one great receiving option at a time, the o-line was spotty, the defense a sieve (particularly in 2001)- and he just kept completing passes, generating crazy C-USA numbers.

The three-year starter made 32 career starts- all three of those years are still listed in Tulane’s top five total passing seasons. He threw a TD in an astounding 31 of those 32 starts (72 TDs total). He threw for 200+ yards in 24 starts, 300+ in 16 and 400+ in four. There is an unreal consistency there passing the football- particularly in light of some of the real game day talent disparities Tulane suffered through.

That 300+ yard number is a big one for the C-USA quarterback. It is where you start impacting the point totals in a big way, getting your team into the 30’s. (Both King and Ricard have more total starts- but only eight 300+ yards passing days each). Ramsey was the best production passer Tulane has produced- the C-USA consistent number generator, yardage producer, touchdown maker. He literally more than doubled your chances of a 300+ passing day over his immediate Tulane contemporaries.

And ultimately, quarterback is first about consistently generating the extreme C-USA passing game- the rest falls out of that (particularly in C-USA). So I give the nod to Ramsey over a talented bunch. Ramsey produced three outstanding years. Again, he produced three of top five totals in season passing yards- no one else managed it more than once. Consistent, huge numbers- over three years.

Ramsey is still going a decade later in the NFL. Drafted into a horrible situation (the Redskins under Spurrier and his pet Danny Wuerffel), he has managed to find employment because he has "straight" quarterback skills.

Top 25 Players: #3

2011-02-20T19:44:00.003-05:00

Part of putting together this list is realizing the 1998 campaign was no miracle. It was not a series of inexplicable events. It can be rationalized.

There were three key drivers. First, the transition from major regional independent to C-USA was not complete. The top half of the roster was still Buddy Teevens’ band from the independent days. Sure, Buddy lost almost all recruiting battles- but he lost them to other regional independents and second tier SEC programs: Mississippi, Florida State, Louisville- not C-USA dreck. As is today, the leftovers from the SEC were still materially better than C-USA base talent.

Second, Tommy Bowden successfully identified the new League’s chief strength and weakness- the surplus of smallish speed on the offensive perimeter (size seems to run out before speed at WR) coupled with the total lack of defensive secondary players who could cover. Since these factors exactly complimented one another- exponential change was possible.

But the third success criteria required identifying the quarterback who could tie this new attack all together. The player who could mentally internalize a whole new approach, physically deliver the needed performance and emotionally keep the team going despite reasons to be satisfied.

3. Shaun King, QB (1995-1998)

Shaun King is the MVP of Tulane football of the past 25 years. I honestly don’t think there is disputing that. He leveraged the aforementioned mental, physical and emotional tools in to a great two year run. That same two year run probably generated the sufficient good will to allow athletics to survive the betrayal that was Cowen’s secret athletic review.

King did play quarterback for Teevens, but it was his role as C-USA’s first cartoon number generator that marks him an iconic League figure. King inherited not only a whole new offense but a whole new offensive philosophy. It wasn’t just understanding a whole new set of plays- but a whole new football calculus: when do you take risk?

For example, Bowden threw out everything we are taught to think about first down. First down was no longer about setting up a future convertible down and distance equation. Instead, Tulane was looking to punish the defense via the pass on the one down where extra defensive backs were on the bench. 2nd and 10 was sometimes better than 2nd and 5- if it meant you had King take a shot for a bigger opportunity. The football IQ required was off the charts.

And it obviously worked. King is second on Tulane’s all-time passing lists for yards, completions, touchdowns. He still leads Tulane in career total offense and total touchdowns scored. But the undefeated season was his crowning college achievement. From his official Tulane bio:

King… had a pass efficiency rating of 183.3, which broke the NCAA single season record of 178.8 set by Danny Wuerffel. King completed 68 percent of his passes (223-of-328) to go along with 36 touchdowns and just six interceptions…. also became the first player in Division 1 A history to pass for 3,000 years (3,232) and rush for 500 (532) in an 11-game season. King finished the regular season with 168 consecutive pass attempts without an interception.

The other important point about King is that Tulane was not a perfect offense in 1998. There weren’t many great players- only one other offensive teammate made first team all C-USA (Bernard Robertson), and no skill player did. Even King’s raw ability wasn’t off the charts; his eventual NFL professional play showed the limits of his frame and arm.

But I write here on Frank Helps You Think It All Out about being “quarterbacky”- a sort of intangible ability to “get” the possession passing offense. And that is what King had- he could overcome the imperfections of both himself and teammates by throwing good balls, accurately, completely within the context of the exponential advantage Bowden gave him. Not only did he complete 68% of his career passes, but just as importantly completed those 68% to the right guys in the right situations.

Forget about the all-decade C-USA team, he is still the most important player in C-USA history- one of those few guys who changed an entire League. Drafted in the second round by Tampa Bay, he had some success as NFL quarterback. He joined a good team, good situation and good coach (Jon Gruden). But ultimately, being a distribution quarterback is hard in the NFL. You can play the risk-reward game, but ultimately there needs to be some base level of reward. It is a quarterback league, good quarterbacks have to make big plays. And King never had the arm to be a true drop-back weapon- just could never generate enough 20-, 30- yard plays downfield- to turn himself into a franchise asset.

Top 25 Players: #4

2011-02-18T11:31:00.003-05:00

In the 1980s, the college game never did commit as completely to the forward pass culture as the NFL: the pass interference rule is still less draconian, defensive backs still get away with more, there simply aren’t enough high quality quarterbacks and available practice time to master the true NFL passing offense.

But the rise of the forward pass in the ‘80s did largely kill the alternative approaches. The veer was dead; the option was finished at Oklahoma and Nebraska by 1985. The “three yards in a cloud of dust” offensives of the Big Ten died a hard death. The increasingly athletic, passing Pac-10 routed them in Rose Bowl after Rose Bowl. The pass-crazy WAC produced a shocking 1984 national champion. What offensive innovation that did exist was increasingly from guys like Mouse Davis and LaVell Edwards.

Mack Brown was trying to figure it out too in New Orleans:

#4. Terrence Jones, QB (1985-1988)

As the nation watched Vince Young run and throw all over the place, and announcers lauded Greg Davis to the sky for the unique, intelligent package given to Young to run, the late 1980s Tulane undergraduate was forced to remark we’d seen all those same plays, those same looks, before. All Brown and Davis had to do was load Tulane game film from 1987, show it to Young, and say “Do that”.

Terrence Jones wasn’t the runner Young was. And Tulane’s approach was a bit rawer- as Terrence Jones was really an electric '80s college quarterback experiment, rather than a finished product. Nowadays, we have an idea of how to quantify good quarterback play. But, in the 80s, a lot of it was still exploratory: how much should a quarterback run? how much should you throw on first down? what is the nature of play at this position?

And the charismatic Jones (the Louisiana Jones and the Dome of Doom football poster is still the best ever) was part and parcel of that argument. As stupid prejudices against African-American quarterbacks declined, the athleticism of the position went up. The successful Jones and Brian Mitchell became prototypes for mobile yet good passers: Andre Ware, Rodney Peete, Brett Favre and Randall Cunningham.

Jones was darn successful. Introduced to the Green Wave as a running back, he complimented able senior quarterback Ken Karcher. Jones led the team in rushing in 1985 as a freshman as a tailback- and would again in 1988 as the quarterback.

So he was a great rusher (career rushing totals of 1761 yards rushing and 24 TDs), folded into a highly competent passer. Readers here know how I laud the advantages of the 60% passer. Well, Jones managed 60% too- but NOT in a possession, distribution offense.

That meant he could generate cartoon numbers in a time where they were of real value. Despite not being a creature of the C-USA era, Jones is still second all-time in total offense at Tulane, a mere 23 yards behind Shaun King (9468). He left Tulane with almost every school passing record: passing yardage (7,684), passing touchdowns (46), completions (570) and attempts (1,042). He still holds the record for most total yards in a single game: 484 versus TCU in 1986.

Accordingly, Jones finished Tulane ranked sixth in all-time NCAA total offense (just ahead of John Elway)- and was named to some All-America teams in 1988. Thanks to Jones, Tulane had a “good for all of college football” offense, an offense that could generate a 3-1 SEC mark in 1987, real legit goodness. The 1987 LSU-Tulane tilt was the last time the Green Wave took the field with enough major football talent to be "good"- and Jones was the fulcrum: 27-for-40, 316 yards, 3 TDs.

Ultimately, Jones did not have the raw arm to be a franchise NFL quarterback- and his mobility was not prized in the era of big armed NFL prospects like Troy Aikman, Jeff George and Drew Bledsoe. He was drafted late (7th round) by San Diego- but the Chargers wanted him to play defense. But the mobile quarterback was valued in Canada- so he instead played half-a-decade in the CFL with modest success. He then signed briefly with New Orleans as a wide out. It didn’t work out with Jim Mora- and Jones retired.

Top 25 Players: #5

2011-02-16T10:19:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the delay- but I’ve been battling my annual tracheal infection. Back to the list.

As Tulane moved into the C-USA era, the quarterback and skill player reigned supreme. But again, the quarterback and skill player were the guys who emerged only after being sifted through the BCS filter: the distribution quarterback versus the big armed, big body, pro-style QB; the fast wide receiver versus the big fast receiver, the scat back who could really catch versus the true power franchise back.

Well, if the “best scat back who could catch” defines the C-USA running back position, the best in the history of C-USA played his college football at Tulane:

5. Mewelde Moore, RB (2000-2003)

Upfront, I think Mewelde Moore is best running back in the history of C-USA- which is high praise in a League driven by skill position excellence. Memphis’ DeAngelo Williams is both the all-time C-USA leading rusher (6026 yards) and total yards from scrimmage (6749 yards)- but those 700+ yards receiving just aren’t much in a passing League. As I've argued over the years, it is hard to translate big C-USA rushing totals into helpful actual point totals.

But who else? Damien Fletcher (USM) is the only guy with similar 6000-yard production (and again, an indifferent receiver). Matt Forte (Tulane) and Kevin Smith (UCF) would have had to play a whole extra season to approach Moore’s offensive totals.

Moore developed into the ultimate spread offense tailback weapon. Yet people forget he actually was listed as a wide receiver his first year. He was a typical C-USA wide out recruit: fast, but lacking in raw stature (5' 11"). But it was the source of his good hands and route running inteligence. So, Moore could always run and catch like a wide receiver. Then, that "idiot" Scelfo realized his good running vision and change of direction, found him a better position, and watched as Moore performed as an A-level C-USA tailback (22 career 100-yard rushing games).

So again, while he was not a true SEC power back, he was a very, very high NFL caliber “change of pace” player. Consequently, he was quick to the holes, then so scary and lethal in the second level. Even better, Tulane possessed quarterbacks who could also “distribute” the ball to Moore in the second level, no linebacker could cover him, and he piled up catches like crazy.

The supreme cartoon number generator was created. His career mark of 6050 total yards is still the Tulane mark (Matt Forte is second with 5261 yards) and was twelfth all-time in the NCAA I-A at his career’s conclusion. He also left college with both the Tulane and C-USA career rushing records (again, such a great runner in the spread offense) and receiving records (for a running back). He was a freshman all-American, C-USA freshman of the year and first team all C-USA twice. He made the all-decade C-USA team- along with Shaun King and Seth Marler.

Again, the “franchise back” is an NFL objective in the first fifty picks- and that was not Mewelde Moore. His draft stock suffered a little. But he was a clear complimentary player, selected in the fourth round by Minnesota, then moved to Pittsburgh. He has had a very fine seven year career as said complimentary player- with only one lost fumble in a career of 675 touches. Amazing.

Top 25 Players: #7-#6

2011-02-11T12:55:00.007-05:00

Frank Helps You Think It All Out can see by the utter lack of comments that defensive players from the Mack Brown era are not the readers' cup of tea.

Fine! Back to C-USA offensive stars:

7. J.P. Losman, QB (2000-2003)

In the first and only national recruiting coup based on the '98 run, the number 3 prep quarterback transferred to Tulane from UCLA. Parade All-American J.P. Losman had come to Tulane.

Yet, while he delivered at a crazy good level, the Tulane fan never really warmed to J.P. Losman. The fan base perceived him as arrogant, stories of cockiness emanated from both the locker room and UCLA. His California cool never played just right in the Big Easy.

The funny thing about Losman is that he is more of a C-USA figure of importance than just a Tulane player. In the immediate years after the 1998 Tulane undefeated season, C-USA struggled to figure just how to adapt to Bowden's era of distribution passing. Given that the pro-body, big arm quarterback recruit was still never coming to C-USA, what did this distribution quarterback look like? How valuable was mobility? Or outright running? Did the C-USA version of the quarterback position have any correlation with the SEC or NFL version?

Teams tried a lot of solutions- one was our own Patrick Ramsey: immobile, yet big armed, shoehorned into a checkdown passing attack. But the ultimate answer turned out to be J.P. Losman- particularly when he proved he could win surrounded by nothing but skill position talent (a frequent issue faced by C-USA teams). You can draw straight line from Losman to Kevin Kolb to Chase Clement to CJ Kinne. None have giant NFL arms- but all have the same mix of pocket mobility, 60-ish completion percentage, routine accuracy and an ability to mentally manage the four and five receiver pass distribution concept. The C-USA prototype quarterback to this day is not Shaun King, but J.P. Losman.

Losman had some skill people- and flourished in the cartoon number era. He was the official starting Tulane quarterback only for two years- but threw for a huge 6754 yards, fourth all-time at Tulane. His two official starting years featured 2468 and 3077 yards respectively- only two other Tulane quarterbacks have had 3000 yard passing seasons. Plus, Losman was a very Shaun King like in game risk manager: 60 touchdown passes versus 27 interceptions (King was 70 and 34 respectively), and sports the lowest interception per attempt rate in Tulane history.

Sixty career touchdown passes- 33 and 19 his two official starting years respectively, eight as Scelfo’s odd toy behind Ramsey. That is a whole lot. Losman was a true, frightening creature of C-USA.

While Losman was a distribution quarterback at Tulane, he had some NFL skills: really good arm, athleticism, not bad size. He was a first round draft pick of the Bills and moved into a simply horrible situation there. But despite adversity, seven years later, he is still in the NFL- as the high-IQ, a guy you can survive a month with, the true professional quarterback. He lacks the size and strength combination to be a top-fifteen franchise quarterback option, but if you put the expectation of being the 22nd overall pick aside, he’s done all right- a solid pro quarterback.

6. Bernard Robertson, OT (1997-2000)

During Tulane’s miraculous undefeated run in 1998, at the Army game at West Point, I was asked who I thought was the best NFL prospect on the team? I rolled the question around in my head, and honestly, I was not trying to shock anyone when I said Bernard Robertson.

Robertson is probably the best example of a theme I have hit here several times- that Tulane’s 1998 run was fueled by applying “major regional independent talent” to a C-USA schedule. Robertson was part of that last gasp of non-C-USA recruiting: an All-district, All-West Bank and all-metro selection that would not have been out of place at Ole Miss.

Accordingly, he dominated right away- starting all but one game during his four years at Tulane, progressing smartly from right to left tackle, twice first team all-CUSA and rounding out his brilliant career as a third team all-American (ed. note: Tulane’s first position player on a national all-American team since Terrence Jones & Mitchell Price in 1988).

Unlike the other excellent offensive tackles on this list- he really belonged out there at any level, including eventually the NFL. Kropog was an excellent guard forced outside by need. Corey Geason an athletic guy who survived his size issues by the virtue of smallish C-USA fronts. But Robertson arrived a “true” tackle- the big 6’4” frame, long arms, endless leverage and quick to the edge rusher.

One of the marvels on 1998 team is that only three players made all C-USA: Robertson, King and Michael Jordan (see #23)- which gives an indication of just how important to the 1997-98 restoration Robertson was. Bowden merely showed up, and his anchor tackle just appeared.

But it was 2000, with his move to the elite LT side, when Robertson was a truly dominant player. Protecting the wholly immobile Ramsey and immature Losman over 506 season pass attempts, not only did he not allow a sack all season, but also was not credited with giving up a “hurry”. Think about that- squaring off against the other team’s best pass rusher again and again, with an offense frequently telegraphing its intention to throw, and he did not mess up even once!

So he left Tulane in 2000 as one of the best OTs in college football. Drafted by Chicago, he commenced one of the weirder pro-football odysseys. First stuck behind the wonderful pro RT James “Big Cat” Williams, the Bears then also drafted another OT (Marc Columbo), and playing time at tackle got real competitive. He got some time at tackle (five starts in 2002) and did fine for a young player being groomed- particularly in pass protection. But he jumped off-side so much it became a serious problem. He literally had the yips. The Bills then tried him as a utility guy- but he never was a road grader run blocker, which made any pro career inside problematic. He played 16 NFL games over three years. But don't worry, things seem to have turned out pretty okay for Bernard.

Top 25 Players: #9-#8

2011-02-08T07:27:00.003-05:00

Today’s top 25 entries take Frank Helps You Think It All Out back to the last semi-successful gasp of regional independence- some of the good-to-decent teams that surrounded Tulane’s 1987 Independence Bowl appearance. That was an era where a minor bowl bid meant something. Washington did fly across the country to play Tulane. Grand Marshall Chuck Yeager was there too.
Nowadays, those Mack Brown teams are remembered as an offense friendly group led by the dazzling Terrence Jones and high quality minions Zeno, Pierce and McIntosh. But really, there were also a number of quality defenders. The 1987 Tulane team was a very credible SEC foe: winning three, losing one. In the three SEC games Tulane won, they allowed respectable point totals (Vanderbilt-17, Ole Miss-24, Mississippi State-19)- so it wasn’t all offense.

9. Richard Harvey, LB 1985-1988

Richard Harvey holds the middle spot of a great era of Tulane linebacking: Burrell Dent, Harvey, Pat Stant- and these guys were the anchor of said mini-renaissance of the Tulane defense during the Mack Brown era.

I’ve made this point on here before: that the overall talent level of Tulane and their opponents was much greater in the regional independent days. And Harvey personifies that. Harvey brought an NFL level of physical skill to match up with a high motor. He would have been a three year starter just about anywhere in college football.

Again, the most important linebacker skill is tackling- getting to the ball and ending the play. After a season as the top ‘backer reserve, he promptly led the team in tackles the next three years. Only Mike Staid and Anthony Cannon have more solo tackles on this list. His career tackle totals lag a bit because, unlike Staid and Cannon, he wasn’t all alone out there. Guys like Pat Stant, Tookie Spann, Eric Thomas, Burrell Dent, Mitchell Price took tackles away, and some playing time as a freshman, from Harvey.

So he was a very good player surrounded by other good players- and is still one of the all-time great guys associated with the Tulane football team. Inducted into the Tulane Hall of Fame in 1999, he is still a regular at fund raising and football related programs.

He was drafted by the Buffalo Bills- and although he was a journeyman in his pro career, he was in the League an amazing eleven years.

8. Mitchell Price, DB 1987-1989

Mitchell Price arrived in New Orleans under odd circumstances. A talented transfer from SMU, Price was the one bit of big loot Tulane scarfed up from the 1987 Death Penalty applied to Mustang football. Reports suggested that eighty schools came to try and scoop up Mustang players- but arguably Tulane emerged with the best.

Prior to the penalty, mid-1980s SMU was a scuffling, probation laden program- but still had remnants of the type of recruiting classes that had propelled Bobby Collins’ and Ron Meyer’s oufits to national status. SMU posted a record of 45-5-1 from 1980-1984, which was the highest win percentage in Division 1-A over that span.

Price was one of the prospects. A true lockdown corner, fast and strong, could jam and run with any one.

He played 35 games at Tulane, 23 of those games were versus college football teams in today’s BCS- a whole step up in class from today’s C-USA. Nevertheless, he was a routine big play producer. He had two career punt returns for touchdowns- including a 44-yard return that kept the moribund Tulane offense in the Independence Bowl for three quarters. He returned two interceptions for touchdowns as well.

Price led the team all three years he played in interceptions, his thirteen career picks breaking Ellsworth Kingery (1949-51) and Don Zimmerman’s (1930-32) Tulane career record. He was the rare Tulane player of national importance- making some down roster national all-American teams (along with QB Terrence Jones) in 1988, the last Tulane position player to be so honored until Bernard Robertson in 2000.

Drafted by the Cincinnati, he stuck around in the NFL for a few years, played 41 games with a few starts, and returned two punts in the NFL for scores.

Top 25 Players: #11-#10

2011-02-03T08:59:00.005-05:00

There have been a lot of bad football seasons at Tulane, but in some ways the 1996 season (2-9) was the most soul-sucking. Buddy Teevens was a rank incompetent- but 1996 was the real nadir of that experience.

As fans were to realize the following year, there was real offensive talent on that squad: a quarterback destined for greatness with obvious ability, quality receiving options. And yet they were chained to the Southern Miss power football model- annoiting Jamaican Dartez the harbinger of offensive success, rather than King, Dawson, Geason, Franklin.

Do you know much stupidness was required to limit Shaun King to 1574 yards passing? Or to not give JaJuan Dawson a start, after not letting him play at all in 1995?

Fortunately, that era was ending, a joyous exorcism coming- and the roster was loaded with quality offensive players that required a simple vision, a vision of utter destruction via the possession passing game, to flower. Today's list revisits that happy offensive transition.

11. Cory Geason, TE/OT (1994-1997)

I teased this selection yesterday- promising yet another high-level four year contributor who didn’t really register on the NFL radar. Cory Geason came to Tulane a decently recruited tight end. Four games into the season, he became a fixture upfront on the Tulane line.

He was a figure of some strategic consternation. He was a great tight end (needed) but also a very good tackle (really needed). He was a tweener: not an enormous, physical tackle and a bit slow for a skill player. But like the tweener 6’6” forward in college basketball, that flexibility can be an asset in the college game, even though it penalizes you as a pro prospect.

So, he changed position based on team need. Consequently, despite being named to the All-National Independent team on the OL, Teevens elected to slide him back to tight end in 1995 (he caught a pass in ten of eleven games) and 1996. He was a good pass catching threat and obviously, a real superior run blocker from the tight end position (a priority in the Teevens administration). He also scored a pair of odd special teams TDs: returning an on-side kick versus Cincinnati, catching a TD pass of a fake field goal versus Wake Forest. He was recognized both years as first team all C-USA at TE.

Obviously, Tommy Bowden had zero use for a run blocking tight end- so he moved him back to tackle in 1997. Geason became the best in the League at that too, accepting his third straight first team all C-USA award. A big part of the 1997 renaissance was that, despite a total change in offensive philosophy, the team’s best blocker could seamlessly adapt and continue to contribute at a first team all-League level. Geason bought them time, tactically on game day and then strategically- time to figure out just how to deploy all this talent in the wholesale philosophical upheaval.

I can’t think of any other Tulane player with three straight first team all C-USA team appearances (plus all independent as a freshman), let alone at two very distinct positions: skill and line.

Again, the same tweener body that made him such a weapon in the early days of C-USA hurt him in the NFL. Neither a hulking tackle nor a tight end who could stretch the field, he had no obvious NFL potential. But he did catch on a bit as an undrafted free agent, a tight end with Pittsburgh and Buffalo, appeared in 26 games, three career receptions.

10. JaJuan Dawson, WR (1996-1999)

Dawson was the real deal- sleek and fast, great frame. And he too flourished in the cartoon number offensive that Tommy Bowden was about to inflict cruelly on C-USA.

But Dawson is a story beyond numbers. Tommy Bowden brought a revolution to C-USA- a true ejection of tried and true. He moved away from the “little SEC” power model of USM- and into this high velocity offensive concept. Shaun King gave him the prototype high football IQ “distribution” quarterback. And JaJaun Dawson became the prototype for every C-USA #1 receiver since.

First, he was a fast, stretch the field, go to the house any and every play threat. The new C-USA offense saw the whole field as the red zone. With four or five receivers being chased by safeties recruited to stop the USM power run, any play could go the distance. Check this out: Dawson has three career 75-yard plus receptions for touchdowns. 31 career TD catches (second all-time at Tulane).

Second, he was the requisite pure numbers generator: catches, yards, scores. Get the numbers is the credo of every C-USA player. To score in the thirties and forties, your top wide out has got to stockpile contributions every week.

Dawson delivered. He amassed the needed totals- particularly impressive in light of the fact that Tulane had real surplus receiving assets from ’97-‘99. He gave up plays to real good wide outs like PJ Franklin and Adrian Burnette. Plus, he missed a good part of 1997 with injuries.

Still, he has the career mark for single season receptions (96 in 1999). His 234 career receptions is second all-time at Tulane- two behind Marc Zeno. Second most career TD receptions. Third most career receiving yardage. He would lead all these categories if not for said injury, Teevens’ dumb offense and utter inexplicable refusal to get him in to games.

Dependable? He had three streaks of 3+ 100-yard receiving games (only Marc Zeno can say the same). Twice first team all C-USA (1997, 1999). During the miracle year of 1998, he and Franklin both made the second team.

Consistent numbers, big play generator- JaJuan Dawson was a clear NFL prospect. Selected in the third round by Cleveland, he landed in the midst of a not so great situation- an expansion team with real quarterback woes (Tim Couch). He played a little as a fourth wide receiver there, than as a fifth wide out with the Colts. Wide receiver is a development position in the NFL- and he just never got a good situation to actually play.

Top 25 Players: #13-#12

2011-02-01T09:06:00.005-05:00

Back to the list today, where Frank Helps You Think It All Out tries to draw a distinction between four years of great play versus a year of astounding achievement.

13. Matt Forté, RB (2004-2007)

As the ominous portent Hurricane Ivan receded in 2004, an unreal buzz was being generated by observers at Tulane fall camp, as Matt Forté was being introduced to the sideline intelligentsia. Faced with replacing two truly outstanding offensive players, Mewelde Moore and JP Losman, the news of spectacular talent was very welcome indeed.

Forté had "forte" (216 yards, three TDs versus Army his freshman year)- but took a long route to putting it together. There were surely a lot of excuses available to this impact young player- an indifferent receiver in a passing offense, nagging injuries, actual injuries, a coach who thought the road to five TDs was achieved better through Lester Ricard- and Matt Forté most assuredly hit them all. He spent three years unable to take consistent playing time away from people like Jovon Jackson.

As long as Lester Ricard was pitching at Tulane, Forté never seemed to fit in- an afterthought in an offense predicated on scoring via lots of passing. A problematic receiver (985 career receiving yards), he came off the field when Tulane played from behind, and on third down too. His occasional two-three game on-field disappearances did not engender confidence. He just wasn’t guaranteed to get going, make numbers.

But his senior year, completely devoid of quarterback talent, Toledo turned the offense over to Forté. The o-line wasn’t bad, Matt got healthy- and he simply went bonkers.

The numbers were of both national importance (2nd leading rushing average nationally) and historic (eleventh 2000+ yard rusher in major football history). He scored like a zillion touchdowns (an astounding 23 TDs actually). It was a monumental season- simply difficult to stop listing superlatives: two 300+ rushing games, five 200+ yard games, 1st team all C-USA, Senior Bowl MVP, third team all-American, etc.

Forté is hard to figure, to place on this list. It is not a question of mixing in a great season, but a truly classic one. His other three seasons were 600-ish rushing campaigns, not much in number crazy C-USA- blending some occasional amazing performances, then more than a few true headshakers sprinkled in.

At the end of 2007, Forté was still a slightly suspect pro prospect, until he was just great in all the pro-activities surrounding the Senior Bowl. Drafted in the second round by Chicago, he has been a solid NFL franchise back.

12. Mike Staid S (1991-1994)

If Matt Forté was a first-order enigma at Tulane, Mike Staid was an elite college safety now and forever: 45 games at Tulane in his era, 45 starts, all super. He led the team in tackles all four years he patrolled the defensive backfield- the only Green Wave football player ever to achieve that. The best player of the Teevens era, Mike is probably the second best “pure” college player on this list. By that, he was never a serious pro prospect- just was not the requisite physical specimen. But only that one other player, still to come, contributed at as high a level consistently for four years.

The teams he played for were oh-so-bad (one win in both 1991, 1994, two wins in 1992) as the Tulane regional independent experiment was dying fast under the inept Buddy Teevens. But the schedule was still littered by major I-A teams and players and the Wave defense was frequently overwhelmed. Staid functioned as a sort of linebacker. Prior to the C-USA passing explosion, most teams were still rushing oriented- and Tulane needed all hands on deck to stop the run. And Mike slummed in the second level, cleaning up the problem that was Tulane’s front seven- which gave him LB tackling totals as a safety.

Burnell Dent (Packers 1986-1992) is the leading tackler all-time at Tulane. Mike is second with 481, eleven behind. Another 39 tackles separates him from third place and Frank Robinson (CFL, 1981-1990). Those totals are off the charts for a safety (for example, the nice all C-USA safety Joey Dawson has less that 200 career tackles). Staid left Tulane with the most tackles for a defensive back ever in NCAA history! (ed. note: who broke Staid’s record?)

And it wasn’t like he was cheating. Tulane couldn’t defend the pass either- and he had to run with guys. So he could pass defend too- three picks in both 1991 and 1992.

Even on a terrible team, he would leap out at you as a guy who belonged out there. National accolades rolled in- 1994 first team National Independent; 1992 and 1993 first team all-South Independent- particularly impressive given the bad teams and the fact he was, again, not a pro prospect.

But Mike Staid is ultimately about first principles: tackling is the single most important collective defensive skill- get to the ball carrier and get him down- and Staid was best at that on this list.

Top 25 Players: #15-#14

2011-01-28T15:12:00.004-05:00

Today’s additions bring out the question of how to appraise the odd evolutions in traditional positions in C-USA? For example, C-USA offensive linemen have long ago separated from the SEC/NFL prototype. If the League generates surplus distribution quarterbacks and smaller speedy guys, it has never squared the circle on how to generate productive linemen en masse.

Thus, the League exists to de-emphasize the offensive line. The spread offenses are predicated on getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly and getting defenders out of the box so you can run the football against fewer defenders. The motivation for these adjustments is partly an inability to find people who can block: pass protect, win the battles in the tackle box in the running game.

So, when a quality offensive lineman does surface, he is often hobbled because although he can block his assignments, others cannot. So the low demand offensive approach continues unabated. C-USA exists to hide offensive linemen- it is hard to shine.

But first- another category of player hard to rate- the fullback. As a skill player, they do generate some numbers, but they aren’t the primary offensive skill assets. Much like the tight end, they make a mark blocking and doing a little of everything: catch a pass here, get a tough yard there...

15. Jerald Sowell, FB (1993-1996)

So, speaking of tough, Jerald Sowell is another player who dates back to the regional independent days- back when Tulane ran a pro-style offense with actual blockers. Okay, they ran it badly. Some guy named Craig Randall was the quarterback. We all pretended Jamaican Dartez was pretty okay.

But Jerald Sowell was the real deal- the best fullback of an era that had some real good ones at Tulane. He succeeded the quality Chance Miller- and a few years later was followed by the challenging Tony Converse.

Buddy Teevens believed in using the fullback. Coupled with the fact the tailback position was a black hole sucking in all sorts of terrible in that era, Jerald Sowell put up good numbers as an ancillary option: ninth all-time in carries, eleventh in rushing yards, caught thirty balls one year. And he was real good from day one- led the team in rushing three times in his career, including as a freshman.

In addition, he put his numbers up against real teams, in an era where a 100-yard rushing day was an accomplishment. He has 100-yard rushing days versus LSU, Alabama and Southern Mississippi- and holds the school record for longest play from scrimmage (98-yard run versus the Crimson Tide).

Plus, he was an outstanding fullback- crushing blocker, possession receiver, an NFL prospect from the first day he lined up. I can’t think of any other Tulane player who was a legitimite NFL prospect for all four years he played. He played ten NFL seasons- mostly with the Jets.

14. Troy Kropog, OT (2005-2008)

Like a lot of Tulane fans, I tuned into the nationally televised 2007 Tulane-LSU tilt. Most fans spent the game heartened by a spirited showing. I spent the game wondering just who in hell was playing left tackle for Tulane, poking the Chi O every time Kropog blew up another LSU lineman.

Troy Kropog became a top NFL prospect that day. It was a remarkable journey of the most improved player, from day one to finish, that I can recall.

We’d seen the Kropog-type a zillion times in C-USA. Well undersized, but he was pretty athletic (a 250-pound kid can play well in the trenches in high school)- he was still a true stab in the dark, groping for some serviceable upside, a depth player. There was some vague tight end talk (he was slight on that enormous frame)- and then he disappeared wherever I-A teams “grow” folks for a red-shirt year, then two years of spot duty. But the utter paucity of offensive lineman in C-USA means real prospects usually are on the field quickly- not a two-plus year journey. He was just a “guy”.

Well, Kropog exploded. He gained sixty pounds, kept the height and athleticism. Turned out he was wicked strong with that extra bulk. And he became the NFL’s holy grail- an athletic, left tackle and top fifty prospect.

He dominated C-USA opposition- first team all C-USA in 2008. He was criminally left off in 2007, named honorable mention, largely due to reputation- but there were absolutely not six League tackles better than him. He would have been a multiple year starter at USC for crying out loud.

He was the best pass protector ever at Tulane, could get the edge and physically dominated the pass rushers he routinely caught. That same athleticism made him a real weapon on the stretch and draw running plays Tulane liked to run with Forte and Anderson. He could get to the point of attack anywhere- in fact, he created the point of attack because he could run to any spot to do damage. Forget second level, he made blocks on hapless safeties.

He dropped out of the top fifty close to the draft: shoulder injury questions, a rich tackle draft, some thought he projected better as an OG (which will take you out of the first two rounds in a hurry). He went fourth round to the Titans. But he is a real NFL player. He played this year as the Titan’s third OT- and figures to get every chance to crack the regular rotation this year with the new regime (and there is still some thought to move him to guard to just get him on the field). If you had to pick a Tulane guy who will be in the League in 2018, Kropog is it.

Top 25 Players: #17-#16

2011-01-25T08:24:00.004-05:00

After the last edition of pure C-USA goodness, we drift back and find some old school defense players. The first is from the old school “major regional independent” era. The second is an old school player dropped into the one place where old school is still demanded in C-USA- the island that is middle ‘backer.

17. Mike Riley, DB (1987, 1989-1990)

Mike Riley is sadly kind of a forgotten Tulane player- edging out of the collective consciousness. He played on some hard-to-remember, pedestrian Greg Davis teams. He was touted as the heir to the great Pro-Bowler Eric Thomas (2nd round pick of the Cincinnati Bengals in ‘87)- which made a victim of expectations.

But he was really good, the best player of the Greg Davis era, a true shutdown DB at a time when Tulane still played a major national schedule littered with NFL caliber skill players. Coupled with Mitchell Pierce, Riley allowed the Wave to put a real college football defensive backfield out there. Major college football completed the shift to more pro-style offenses (1984-ish is when Switzer abandoned the wishbone at Oklahoma for Aikman and Dupree)- and the top pass coverage asset sky-rocketed in value.

Riley was a brilliant athlete, fast as lightning. He is still on the list of Tulane track and field records for long jump and 100-yard dash. Still, it is hard to quantify defensive back play statistically- great corners and safeties aren’t thrown at which hurts their totals. There was no all C-USA team to make. And he only played three years- which hurts his totals as well.

But perhaps the highest judge of talent, for the NFL, he was a very solid pro-prospect: sixth round by the Jets, which would be fifth round today in the absence of all the supplemental picks and expansion teams, and a regional selection of the USFL’s New Orleans Breakers. He did not impress as a pro- which contributes to his anonymity.

But don't let that fool you, Riley was one of the nation's elite athletic DBs for two years.

16. Anthony Cannon, LB (2002-2005)

Who did not love Anthony Cannon?

From the day he stepped on the field at Tulane he was an unreal high motor guy: attack, stick, down. I’ve gone on and on here for eight years about the evolution of football in C-USA. But the middle linebacker- alone in the middle of the field as his friends get stretched all around him- is still the same as Chuck Bednarik at Penn in the 40s. He must get to the running back, or the receivers in the near slot and flats, and tackle him again and again.

And Cannon was a brilliant tackler. Take the best lateral moving linebacker I have seen at Tulane, add in high IQ (Cannon was always all-academic everything) and determined technique, and you have routine superior play.

It was the routine that was remarkable. Much like Roydell Williams below, he never was “great”, but man, was he always really good. Again, linebackers are measured first and foremost on stopping power- and Cannon made “stopping people” routine: four straight 100-tackle seasons, led the team in tackles three times- including as a freshman. There is only one person on this list (still to come) who has more total career tackles, and only three individuals in Tulane history have more. He also was a routine producer of the negative plays, loss of down and distance, needed to stop the monster C-USA offenses of that era: 29 career tackles for losses (only Brett Timmons has more for a LB) and led the team in sacks in 2004.

An obvious C-USA force, the accolades rolled in. He made three all C-USA teams (1st team in 2005, all frosh in 2002), a freshman all-American and C-USA defensive freshman of the year.

Cannon struggled to keep his weight above 220 and pro teams were scared away by his size. But his obvious athleticism and work ethic got him a shot as a special teams player and spot asset on a team that was endlessly looking for character guys to change the culture. A seventh round pick, he brought that motor to Detroit, made the team, and carved out a nice three year career.

Top 25 Players: #19-#18

2011-01-22T06:29:00.006-05:00

Back to the list this morning, and four real fan favorites are coming up starting today.

Following on the theme of Tulane’s regional independent era, the terrible death of that era gave Tulane the Tommy Bowden regime. Bowden circumvented Southern Mississippi’s power game as C-USA dominant style with the offensive circus we have today. He took C-USA’s surplus resources: smaller, yet still speedy skill players and distribution quarterbacks. He exploited C-USA’s great weakness: lack of DBs. And the League became a manic exercise in scoring the ball- overwhelming the defensive secondary with quality receiving options and very heady quarterback play. The rein of Shaun King and Dave Ragone was at hand.

This list is very insightful (pan down a bit)- the first all-decade team for C-USA (1995-2004). Note the defense- not a single defense back! Further, and not to pick on Israel Route- but the guy was an all C-USA corner. He wasn’t bad exactly- particularly in the context of C-USA. But he is living proof that there has simply not been a whole lot of viable defensive backs in this league for fifteen years.

Today’s two additions were explosive part and parcel of that trend.

19. Lynaris Elpheage, CB (2000-2002)

Along with Lester Ricard and Tony Converse, Elpheage was the great hope of Tulane athletics. A guy who, at first glance, screamed top 100 NFL pick- but due to a deficiency sort of blazed out.

Elpheage was a brilliant, blazing talent- absolutely tailored to the C-USA experiment (first team all C-USA 2002). It was hard for defenses to make routine stops versus the go-go offenses. Without a negative play from scrimmage, it was very hard to stop King and Ragone for three downs. So thye League's defenses became big defensive play seeking engines: interceptions, sacks, tackles for losses. Players who could create these things, generate the fear of these things, and score on defense, became the vogue defensive asset.

And that was Lynaris Elpheage. He generated big plays. He was capable of flipping a game at any time. He generated fear.

I think he is still the only player in NCAA history to score touchdowns off a rush (first play of his career), kickoff return, a punt return, a fumble return, and an interception return. He was a marvel with the ball in his hands- particularly in the broken field of any sort of return. His MVP of the Hawai'i Bowl was driven by a huge third quarter return.

He also was a ball hawk: interceptions (14 career, second all time for Tulane), passes defended (49-Tulane career record), tackles (a “very good for a corner” 68 tackles in 2002, 59 in 2001), fumbles (two forced in 2002- again, great for a cornerback).

Yet, I used to have enormous arguments with the denizens of nola.com back in 2002 when I would write that Elpheage would not be drafted. Elpheage brought all this great exciting stuff to the table- but he had one problem. He couldn’t really cover people.

Which, of course, is a real problem at the next level. He was small (listed at 5’ 9”), could be bullied, couldn’t play press coverages or any sort of physical play really (oddly though, he was a good tackler). All those passes defended were emblematic of a problem; teams were absolutely not afraid to throw at him- particularly slants and possession style routes. He couldn’t even project to a nickel corner in the NFL. Normally lacking raw speed, nickel guys absolutely have to cover slot receivers running possession routes. Lacking situational DB skills, there wasn’t enough to even get him a job on special teams.

But he was wild fun at Tulane

18. Roydell Williams, WR (2000-2004)

Roydell Williams is the triumph of the C-USA offense that Bowden bequeathed. You want cartoon numbers, we got cartoon numbers here. And some might be a little shocked to not find him higher (ed. note: but a lot of real good players to go).

Hard to imagine anyone better designed to prosper in the early 2000s C-USA than Roydell Williams. Tall and lanky, brilliant route runner, high IQ player, great hands. His two pro weaknesses – a hair slow and “functional” strength- were not issues facing slow, undersized C-USA corners and safeties.

Add in some luck- matched up with big number quarterbacks Ramsey, Losman and Ricard- and the numbers get scary.

He had no weaknesses as a college wide receiver. None. First, he was a big play machine (three 70+ yard catches). Second, he was an outstanding possession and red zone target: 35 career TD receptions. Those 35 TDs are the most in both Tulane and C-USA history. Think about the great WRs in this offense friendly League- quite an accomplishment. Third, Williams brought a staggering consistency: third all-time receptions, second all-time reception yardage, twelve 100-yard receiving games.

The end result? All C-USA all four years he played: 1st team in 2003, 2004, 2nd team 2001, and all-frosh in 2000.

Ultimately, this is a hard call on Roydell. He is sort of a Phil Neikro sort of evaluation. He was great because of multiple good years, rather than any specific greatness? Plus, his numbers are goosed by the League and the quarterbacks throwing to him. My evaluation is that is he was a really good player in a great situation, rather than vice versa.

This is somewhat borne out by his checkered pro-career. A fourth round pick of Titans in 2005, he is still in the League with Washington after a hiatus (broke a finger and waived in 2009). But his pro career is a question of, again, a hair slow and functional strength- stuff he could “hide” at Tulane.

But Williams maximized the heck out of his talents at Tulane, just like Elpheage.

Top 25 Players: #21-#20

2011-01-19T09:37:00.005-05:00

In the last installment, the value of contributions via special teams was introduced, and Frank Helps You Think It All Out returns to that debate today in spades.

My friend AK, the hearty troubadour of the Fairgrounds, used to be a student of the top jockeys at the track. The horse was the thing- the athlete in question. But horse races are won by necks and noses, so the ride was important. So while the jockey did not make the horse essentially competitive, he was necessary on the margins.

Kicking is like that. Ultimately, unlike your offensive line or linebackers, the punter is not real reflective on whether you have a good or bad football team. But it is important at the margins, on the edges. It is no accident that a real good run of good play for Tulane circa 1997-2002 was dominated also by a golden age of punting (Casey Roussel, Seth Marler and Chris Beckman) and good place-kicking (Brad Palazzo, Seth Marler).

Lastly, I write articles entitled Punt That Football! I’m the guy with a pained expression at the Linc when the home fans yell “go for it”. I believe in kicking as a weapon- take points when presented, win the field position game- so kickers have a place on this list.

But first:

21. Ruffin Hamilton, LB (1990-93)

If this list were underrated Tulane players, Hamilton would be at the very top. How many of us even remember this high football IQ, play-making linebacker?

Not many? Buried on many bad teams, unprotected by defensive linemen who could clean up blockers so he could make consistent contributions (Keith Cook had not blossomed yet), perhaps overshadowed by the charismatic Mike Staid, perhaps disappearing at times on his own merit, Hamilton toiled in some obscurity.

I missed much of his career, stationed in Germany for part of it. But the few games I saw, man, he could really play. He could cover, sack the quarterback (led the team in 1993), generate turnovers. The NFL was beginning to systematically look for playmakers on defense as the Bears 46-style of defense matured and defensive backs were “penalized” via the rule book more and more.

It was becoming harder to stop the pro offenses by just making three good plays, three good tackles. Defenses needed to make some plays to get stops: a sack, turnover, tackle an RB in the backfield, blow something up via individual effort. Linebackers who could do more than tackle, who could make “the big plays”, were coming increasingly into vogue. And Hamilton was an ideal candidate- big play rather than routine numbers- and he was invited to the Blue-Gray game, where he impressed.

He had an odd pro career, drafted sixth round by Green Bay, played a year sporadically, then three with Falcons, played in a Super Bowl. Perhaps a testament to his raw ability and IQ, there was a two year gap between his stints with the Packers and Falcons. The “good roster guy”- a guy who would make plays on special teams and hold his own in spot playing time- was defined by Ruffin Hamilton.

20. Seth Marler, K (1999-2002)

So yes, while it is hard to rank kickers, Marler has the hardware, right?

One of two outright All-Americans who played for Tulane since 1974. That is not all C-USA, that is All-American. He is Tulane's all-time scoring leader. Marler made the all-decade C-USA team and three times all C-USA (once first team, and once as a punter!). He is in the Tulane Hall of Fame.

It seems enough.

This was a big scoring era for Tulane, a team simply loaded with talent at quarterback, fully executing the cartoon number offense required in those heady days of C-USA play. Marler was a big part and big weapon.

He had the amazing year in 2001: 15-for-16 FGs, 7-for-7 from 40+ yards. He won the Lou Groza award and again, was named an All-American.

Plus, playing for those big offenses, he simply had to make a lot of kicks- a career 66 FGs made. Outstanding.

He had a big leg (four career makes from 50+ yards), but he was a little streaky. 66-for-91 career- so take away a streaky 2001 campaign and his numbers are still quality, but not amazing. The quality Brad Palazzo would be a similar comparison. He would routinely make 4-of-5, or eight in a row, then a miss a couple. But Marler has that 2001 season forever- which other Tulane kickers and punters cannot point too.

He got a good look in the NFL at Jacksonville- but that streakiness caught up with him. Just got into funks and missed very make-able kicks again and again and again. Look at his 30-39 and 40-49 numbers. Kicked in the Arena League-don’t know much about that.

Top 25 Players: #23-#22

2011-01-17T00:14:00.003-05:00

As a “two space after the period” blog, Frank Helps You Think It All Out is annoyed by this Slate article that basically calls me a yo-yo. Thus, you will all be punished with a lecture. Before going further onto the list of the 25 greatest Tulane players of the past 25-ish years, a little context is in order.

Many Tulane fans bemoan the Green Wave’s 1966 departure from the SEC, coupled with the voluntary de-emphasization of athletics, as the beginning of the great talent erosion. The argument goes “the Green Wave had been losing regularly within that League- and quitting only expedited the decline.”

Fine- as far as it goes. But I think carving Tulane talent acquisition in to two tiers, SEC and post-SEC, is too facile.

To wit, some of the Bennie Ellender, Larry Smith, Vince Gibson and Mack Brown teams surely had enough talent to play near .500 (or maybe better once or twice) in the SEC. As a collective, those teams were surely better than the mess Tulane was in the early 60s. Tulane was definitely better for a decade or so post-departure than they had been playing in the SEC. Tulane would have won two, three SEC games (the League schedule was six games in those days) a lot more readily in the '70s and early '80 than the tail end of their 1960's SEC participation.

Tulane was playing a major “independent” schedule through Teevens- and still recruited players against the likes of other major independents, lesser SEC squads, etc. And frankly, it wasn’t a major disaster- and again a tick up from the last days of SEC football around here. Heck, Teevens first schedule included three top eleven teams (Alabama, Boston College, Florida State) and assorted other national programs (LSU, Navy, Mississippi, etc.).

The Tommy Bowden miracle was in part fueled by that. Teevens left the remnants of a national major independent recruiting class (Baton Rouge native Michael Jordan choose Tulane over Boston College, etc.) as well as the radical downgraded C-USA schedule. That downgrade- from second tier major sectional independent to a busted C-USA participant was a huge demarcation in talent acquisition- as big as the departure from the SEC.

Another demarcation was post-Katrina. Tulane used to get solid offensive players at least: Moore, Losman, Robertson, Ramsey, J. Williams- notsomuch afterwards.

This brings us to the next two members of our list- who came to Tulane as major recruits, and not C-USA style FBS candidates:

23. Michael Jordan, CB (1995-1998)

Michael Jordan was a huge component of the stalwart Tulane defenses under Tommy Bowden- a guy who would have been a very good player at a top ten national program. The Wave had a good defensive line that stopped the run and brought pressure. Then, Michael Jordan provided them with a true lockdown first corner- a guy with real pro coverage skills. That was his best attribute- a ball hawking coverage asset, second all-time passes defended at Tulane. And of course, he had that huge 79-yard interception return for a touchdown that jump-started a pretty languid Tulane team in the 1998 Liberty Bowl.

Oddly, the undefeated 1998 team featured only three first team all C-USA selections, and only one on defense. That one was Jordan, a testament to his raw impact on that defense. He took one half of the field away, and the other guys policed the rest.

22. Michael Pierce, RB (1987-1989)

If this list was “Favorite Tulane Player”, Michael Pierce would be at the top of my list. Full disclosure: I had a decent acquaintance with Michael- an exact contemporary of mine at Tulane. He was a generous person.

But I liked Michael for this list because he was a "real" football player- he had no weakness and did everything well. A true all-purpose player, rather than a straight tailback, his rushing totals suffered because he was asked to do everything.

In 1988, Pierce broke Tommy Mason’s single season all-purpose yardage mark- and Mason was an all-American, first round NFL and AFL draft pick, and an eleven year NFL pro. He also left Tulane as the all-time all-purpose yardage producer, taking over from another all-American: Marc Zeno. He is still third all-time on the current all-purpose list- a real testament since he played prior to the cartoon number C-USA era.

To that end, Pierce was a great receiver- the best pass catching RB in the 25 years I’ve followed the team (three career 100-yard receiving games). He was equally the best kick returner too (although I will listen to arguments vis-à-vis Jeff Liggon): two career returns for TD.

Again, his rushing totals suffered because he was asked to do so much else, losing carries- and that keeps him from being higher on this list. Ultimately a great running back has to be a great rusher first and foremost. But Pierce was the best all-around Tulane offensive player of this era I'm covering.

Top 25 Players: #25-#24- Eliminate The Hazy

2011-01-13T10:52:00.006-05:00

Putting together last summer’s Tulane retrospective, I was reminded of the really intriguing variety of players that have passed through here. Tulane has not produced many NFL players that enjoyed sustained success- so a lot of our better players get hazy through time.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking about it over the last few months- and starting today I am presenting a list of my 25 best Tulane football players over my 25 years following Tulane (1987-present).

The criteria here is “best” player- and not an MVP. Thus, no intangibles, no leaders of men stuff allowed. An MVP list would be slanted toward winning teams and offense: quarterbacks, skill players in general. My list is a career award- valuing a good career over single game or season achievements. I disregarded pro careers entirely. These are Tulane’s great college players- and not good players with secondary pro careers.

I’ll start at the bottom- and work my way toward the top:

25. Brian Williams, LB (1994-1997)

In the past 25 years, Tulane has played two elite college linebackers: Richard Harvey and Anthony Cannon. Brain Williams was a step below those guys- and his legend really was hurt by laboring under the Teevens regime, then barely missing the miraculous 1998 campaign.

But he had the number one skill required by a linebacker, he could tackle. Only two players have more total tackles in this 25 year span, led the team in tackles in 1996 and 1997. There are some defensive players who had better single season (say, Dennis O’Sullivan in 1998). But coupled with Derrick Singleton and Brett Timmons, the linebackers were the best part of the Teevens regime.

24. Kenan Blackmon, DE (1999-2002)

It is difficult to separate Kenan Blackmon from his pal in backfield terror Floyd Dorsey. The relative early success Scelfo enjoyed was fueled by strong offenses and this good defensive line. And Giff Smith owes his coaching career to that tandem.

Kenan was sort of undersized- did he even weigh 250lbs?- but very, very tall and extremely quick, almost lanky. The Green Wave had good defensive linemen all over the place in those days- and no one prospered more by the inability of offensive linemen to cheat or to fixate. He is Tulane’s all-time leader in sacks and tackles for loss.

He was never exactly unblockable- but he could both get around or through OTs. He just had the frame that allowed him to keep them "guessing"- speed rush, great guy for stunts, strong enough to grab onto quarterbacks and hold on. 39 career starts.

Final BlogPoll

2011-01-12T09:31:00.001-05:00

Note, like the major national polls, I have two C-USA teams and zero Big East teams. Satisifying.

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 16

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	TCU Horned Frogs	--
4	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	LSU Tigers	--
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
8	Oklahoma Sooners	--
9	Wisconsin Badgers	--
10	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
11	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
12	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
13	Michigan St. Spartans	--
14	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
15	Boise St. Broncos	--
16	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
17	Florida St. Seminoles	--
18	Missouri Tigers	--
19	Texas A&M Aggies	--
20	Central Florida Knights	--
21	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
22	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
23	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	--
24	Florida Gators	--
25	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	--

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Woe

2011-01-11T12:00:00.007-05:00

Even if it ended my freezing at Ice Station Lurie, Vick’s next-to-last play interception was a tough way to go out. Still, it is always a question of expectations. I never was sold that the Eagles were very good. My pre-season prediction of nine wins, wild card still feels right- as the end win total and expectations were goosed by the Eagles abandoning the rebuilding aspect of the season for a total “win now with Vick” approach, plus a weak NFC East. Someone had to win it.

In all fairness, the Packers dominated. The Eagles could not do much on offense or defense. It really wasn’t even to their credit that they hung around to the end. Long time readers of this blog know exactly why the Eagles had a chance to steal it in the end.

Green Bay simply ran the ball too much. Intoxicated by Stark’s 23 carry, 123 yard performance, they committed to a run pass mix of 27 pass-32 rushes. The Eagles were in no mood to force Green Bay to forestall that sort of "success" by cheating the run- allowing the Packers to rush the football, cheating the big pass play instead. The Packers consistently took the ball out of the hands of the second best QB in the NFC. In the previous seven games, Aaron Rodgers had completed 71% of his passes, 19 TDs versus 2 INTs, a 122.0 passer rating- and Green Bay was content to pound Starks? against this Eagles' lousy defensive secondary?

That was just dumb. And, as always happens, Green Bay played great on offense, completely executed their game plan at a high level, and scored a mere 21 points. Frankly, in the NFL, if you play great on offense, you need to score more than 21- because a passing offense, even playing sort of incoherently, can threaten that number. As the Eagles, in fact did.

Vick kept chucking- because a pro offense with good skill players generates consistent field position flipping plays sort of accident, simple occurrence, in the passing game. Add in zero turnovers until the last pass, denying Green Bay any free points, and you have a script for an opportunity to steal a game you deserved to lose by two scores.

There are two major areas of disconnect between the Eagles and the elite. First, there is a real talent deficiency on defense. It is hard to point to any single player that took the field Sunday evening and say said player is better than average. I suppose Trent Cole and Asante Samuel would be the closest. One could fairly say that had above average seasons- but both clearly slowed down in the second half. On the actual game Sunday, that very day, not one Eagles player would clearly rate “above average”.

The Eagles' decade or so of quality professionalism has been driven by a good understanding of managing the salary cap, associated roster manipulation and the passing nature of the league- plus good, not great, drafting. But the current lack of defensive talent is driven by totaling blowing the last two drafts.

The Eagles last two drafts are here and here. Note in 2010 the Eagles took FIVE defensive players in the first four rounds- not one started Sunday. I raged about them at the time- and I stand by it now. Not one guy in the last two drafts was on the field as a plus NFL defensive player. And it is hard to be good if you miss that much. 7th rounder Lamar Chaney might be the only guy who even started- as an emergency fill in for MLB Stewart Bradley.

The second disconnect is the lack of consistent quarterback production. Vick’s production continued to spiral down again Sunday- second straight sub-80 quarterback rating. Teams have figured Vick out- and you can’t devote as many snaps as the Eagles do to the passing game, and be rewarded with 20 completions, three sacks and a bad pick. It simply isn’t enough. Goose that completion total to 28, and the Eagles win Sunday despite all their other woes.

Mind you, it isn’t all Vick’s fault. Vick is not a miracle worker. As a merely okay passer susceptible to pressure, he isn’t the kind of quarterback who papers over faults, but rather a mediocre quarterback who needs the real trappings of real offense to paper over his flaws: a good line, good receiving options, a running game. One positive about this play-off failure is that my great in-season fear is negated: no one is talking about yoking the Eagles to a long term deal with Vick any longer.

Later in the week I’ll post the fix-it column. But as a quick aside for Philadelphia fans, today is the 35th anniversary of one of the great days in Philadelphia sports- the crushing of the Red Army. As a sign of this blog’s longevity, my posting of the 30th anniversary is recorded here.

Prediction Thursday

2011-01-06T10:05:00.003-05:00

I had been on a roll picking the Eagles ATS in the spread until missing the last two tilts (here and here)- dropping the blog career NFL play-off mark to 10-5.

Thus, I was not surprised to being surprised at the line for Sunday: Eagles -3 over Green Bay. I was expecting something more of pick’em- but again, I’ve been off the beam a bit lately. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in football right now. The Eagles’ defense is an injury riddled wreck- rapidly declining week-to-week. Rodgers is a clear pick over Vick- casting doubt on the value of the Eagles’ usual talisman against general sputtering. And yet, the Eagles are a muted fave?

The biggest intangibles wagering on pro football are coaching, home field, short week and warm weather/dome team coming outside. Three seem to land the Eagles way. They are at home in a building that generates good noise and emotion. Green Bay had to play an emotional game for their life last Sunday, while the Eagles cruised with deep reserves. People mock Reid’s NFC Championship game record- but the reason he is there a lot to lose is that the Eagles seemingly always make the play-offs and then win their initial post-season game. Vegas believes in Reid is this sort of spot.

Still, I’m doubtful. I think we can all agree the Eagles’ defense is in for a real, real stern test Sunday. The secondary is a real mess: safeties are either hurt or terrible; DB reinforcements (a limping Asante Samuel) do not inspire confidence. Injuries have corroded the depth and the unit just looks worn. I have really been down on the Eagles past two drafts- and it is really coming home to roost now. Name a single guy on defense, actually playing, taken sixth round or better in the past two drafts. Answer: none. Two entire drafts- and that is why there is a talent and depth problem over there.

Worse, then Aaron Rodgers is introduced, a guy absolutely designed to torment this group.

And Michael Vick has been declining, banged up, too. His turnovers are through the roof. Teams are blitzing and he can’t generate consistent accurate throws from the pocket. Vick this year, even playing well, struggles to generate “routine” offense against even decent defenses: Colts, Giants, Bears, Vikings. The Eagles grew fat this year, leavening said struggling routine offense, with giant strikes to Jackson, Celek, Maclin. But teams now get the ball out of Vick’s hands via extreme pressure, there is no time for giant downfield plays, and the Eagles just can’t sustain offense right now. Perhaps worse, Vick is hinting at excuses: I’m only 75%? Trouble.

This game seems straightforward to me. Rodgers throws for 300 yards, generates 28-35 points. Vick can’t possible throw for 300 yards; the Eagles struggle to add to their two routine scores via big plays. Throw in a pair of Vick turnovers… and this game has 31-17 Packers written all over it.

I love the Pack -3 over the Eagles here. But, such is the weakness of my convictions, based on my recent record, I’ll be chilling in Section 204 loving prepping snowballs.

Special bonus picks! My preseason Super Bowl pick was Falcons over Ravens. I’m inclined to stick with it. Falcons are very good in their building, and I think the Raven defense is much better than the Pats.

Seattle +10.5 over New Orleans: Gut pick really. A .500 outfit really ought to be able to hang with a good team at home. Just a whole lot of points to give a road team in the NFL.

Beginning Of The End

2011-01-04T07:58:00.002-05:00

As Frank Helps You Think It All Out moves from the final months, and now heads into the final weeks, I’d like to submit some thoughts for product going forward.

The trappings surrounding an athletic program are material: cheerleaders, student news coverage, marching band, etc. And obviously, due to my lengthy commitment, I think a readable blog falls into that category. There should be a Tulane contributor on lists such as this and this. It helps make the program “real”.

I write Frank Helps You Think It All Out. I am pretty sure that I know the weaknesses of my contribution. It isn’t journalism- I don’t break news and do game reports. I know little of recruiting. Sports outside of the main revenue producers get slighted. And it isn’t democratic. I choose the topics- and go off topic to things of personal interest on a whim. Go Eagles! Hockey and NASCAR.

I have no desire to lead another Tulane communication sequel for eight years. But I’d like to help to get one off the ground: keep the program coverage going, plug holes in this current offering.

My going forward proposal centers on some sort of blog-style communication medium. Tulane has a chat board(s), newspaper, a pay for news site and an athletic department website. It doesn’t need more chat or journalism. But there is room for opinion and thought- particularly if it is civil, learned and impassioned. And that describes our group here.

Frankly, while many blogs have started during this blog’s tenure, they’ve lacked quality or staying power (ed. note: Anonymous Sportaholic was a good quality exception).

Going forward, I set-up an e-mail address (tulaneblog ‘at’ yahoo) and invite those willing to participate to sign up. I plan to be, again, democratic. And, in addition to the existing general invitation to the users here, I plan to invite some folks I enjoy reading on other sites. And you too, Anonymous- I see you lurking on nola.com news comments.

There will be ground rules- but for content, contribution rate and editorial, not policing ideas per se. I want the focus to be on Tulane sports and not administration. I am willing to experiment- try stuff on recruiting and women’s sports. And I have an idea of what “sells” in this format.

If there is interest, my plan is to have some conference calls and such to set a simple editorial policy, select contributors and a platform. I will serve as editor the first year with an eye toward taking an emeritus position soon after. If there isn’t, we’ll fold gracefully. But even just a couple of folks, each writing once a week, means we could generate a quality medium.

With an eye toward launching just before football season, I would hope to build a platform that would be a real interest driver in Tulane sports. As our credibility and know-how grows, we could set up partnerships with other Tulane interest drivers, offer ourselves as a resource to radio and C-USA, do game events, figure out what a podcast is, etc. There is just more power, more creativity, more people devoting time and brainpower.

Anyway, those are the big thoughts. Please share thoughts in the comments- but also take time to sign up via e-mail.

Twelve Lessons

2010-12-31T12:39:00.005-05:00

Frank Helps You Think It All Out is all about accountability- so a real quick look at the seasons’ selections and a dozen lessons learned.

Tulane pick’em over Southeastern Louisiana: Tulane is just better than an FCS team- Darkwa simply could run over them in “need to” spots. WIN

Tulane +21 over Mississippi: Easiest pick of the season. Carrying an FCS loss, a bad Mississippi team should not have been favored by three scores over anyone- and Tulane’s improved defense was still a secret. WIN

Houston -18.5 over Tulane: Lucky cover- Tulane did not play that badly here. It took Tulane’s improved defense a quarter to find its footing. WIN

Tulane +15 over Rutgers: Again, a dumb line that did not reflect the fact that Tulane’s defense had improved enough to keep them in games versus mediocre offenses. WIN

Tulane -1 over Army: Excusable miss- every team has its worst game of the season mentally wise, hard to guess when it is. Still with the defensive respectability theme, I thought the DTs would control the interior much as they had the previous season. Instead, Ponce de Leon was lame- and Army ran wild. Tulane was plain terrible. LOSS

Tulane +18.5 over Tulsa: Tulane’s first real test against a League offensive machine. I thought they could defend a little (like Rutgers) and score some. But Tulane just can’t keep the League’s real talented quarterbacks to a legit number. LOSS

UTEP -10 over Tulane: Complete miss. UTEP played the “worst” opponent game of the season: turnovers, too much rushing via passing. Like all mediocre C-USA teams, UTEP cannot overcome self-inflicted wounds too readily. And I didn’t know that UTEP would pick this game to play like dopes and hand a win to Tulane. LOSS

Tulane +7.5 over SMU: The slump continued, fourth straight loss. Toledo handed SMU this game, watching Darkwa pile up the carries and yards, but as always, few points. A great day on offense totaled only seventeen- and the Wave could not keep up with a quality SMU outfit. LOSS

Southern Mississippi -9.5 over Tulane: The ATS run to 4-0 was based on a theme: Tulane’s defense was better than folks thought. The slump was busted by another theme: Evidenced by the SMU game,Tulane is starting to wear down. USM starts the big point totals (46 here) that dominate the last third of the schedule. WIN

Tulane -4.5 over Rice: Dumb pick that worked out. True toss up game that went Tulane’s way on a game-ending interception return. WIN

UCF -17 over Tulane: After the Rice and USM defensive debacles, I wasn’t taking Tulane anymore short of -30. UCF did not disappoint, hammering the Wave defense, scoring 61- and covering six TDs. WIN

Marshall -9 over Tulane: Easy. Tulane’s defense continued its free fall. WIN

The 8-4 mark runs the blog’s all-time mark to 58-28 (with two pushes).

Bah Humbug

2010-12-30T11:23:00.005-05:00

There has probably been no Eagles’ fan more pessimistic than me this year. And after Tuesday’s shellacking at the Linc by the Vikings, more and more observers are getting on board. How do you think this blurb made my heart skip?
It seemed fair to ponder, after the details of the quad injury were revealed, whether Reid might have been wise to sit a hobbled Vick in favor of Kevin Kolb. Kolb hasn't played since October, but he has been NFC Offensive Player of the Week twice in six career starts; it's not like Reid has Koy Detmer standing there beside him.
People and press are catching on. But first, give Minnesota proper credit. They were a lot of people’s chic NFC pick until quarterback and coaching woes, coupled with general drama (along with Washington, the NFC’s biggest circus), did them in. Given decent quarterback play and good effort, they are a pretty good outfit.

But the Eagles have real problems- and are really starting to stink like the 11-5 fraud from last year. They haven’t played a great game- one that could not have gone either way- since destroying the Redskins back in mid-November.

Philadelphia is a solid organization- so there is almost always a route to ten wins in a division routinely littered with frauds. They manage depth and the roster like the other elite teams in the League, so they survive catastrophic injury situations (like the five, six starters out on defense) with aplomb against teams like the Redskins and Giants. They can rebuild on the fly- put a credible division wining product out even while experimenting with the quarterback position and rolling out many young guys.

But ultimately, it doesn’t mean Philadelphia is “good”. Good enough to beat the League’s many mediocre outfits (Giants, Texans, Jags), even shock someone at home (Colts, Falcons)- but not truly elite.

It starts with the quarterback- who teams are increasingly figuring out. Hard to argue that Vick has not been pretty bad lately, with only one 100 rating since the Redskins rout versus the terrible Texans secondary. In fact, that probably is what Vick ultimately is- a guy who once a month can generate a 100 rating game. Frankly, with the exceptional exception of a seven minute stretch against a Giants team in full collapse, he has been terrible the past two games.

Teams are figuring out how to deal with the big play, but low consistency, low completion total quarterback. They are coming with more pressure, more blitzers than the Eagles can block, forcing Vick in to a dump off, hit the hot receiver(s), style of play. Defenses are not going to sit passively and give Vick time to generate the giant plays downfield that have defined the Eagles approach this year.

Those extra rushers change the equation that has served the Eagles well. No longer can Jackson, Maclin and Celek run deep routes with impunity. Vick cannot extend plays with that many people careening around. And it isn’t a problem with the offensive line either- you can simply send more people than teams can block. Sure, the line isn’t a great unit- but it is healthy and intact and serviceable. No one can consistently block the amount of pressure they’re seeing anyway.

Instead, Vick has to mature- to check down, dump off. Those throws are absolutely there when six, seven guys are coming after Vick. And big plays are possible burning the blitz- but the quarterback has to make simple throws again and again and again to the right guy, run the raw completion totals up. And that ain’t Vick. And so, right now, they’ve been bad on offense more often than not.

Sure, Vick might escape the blitz a few times, generate a couple of big runs. But a pair of 30-yard runs does not sway matters in a passing, big play League. Then, add in the turnovers that have sprouted as Vick is forced to play a disciplined dink and dunk game, plus the many fumbles that he had gotten away with finally coming home to roost (he had fumbled nine times but only lost one coming into the Vikes game)- and you have a brutal three turnover day from the quarterback.

And the Eagles can’t survive that against a good play-off team- or it will be the Chicago loss again and again: turnovers, quarter after quarter of stagnant offense.

The defense is young and banged up. Productive contributors are out at defensive end (Graham), linebacker (Bradley), safety (Allen) and starting corner- plus Samuel is in and out. The safety and corner situation is particularly horrendous.

So the Eagles need to score consistently. But it is hard to game plan repeated bombs to Jackson or giant catch and runs to Celek. And the alternative, the traditional eight-play, sixty-yard scoring drive, just has not been Vick’s forte ever.

So Minnesota exposed the Eagles- the rookie quarterback got a mere modest two scores but without a mistake or turnover. Vick generated many mistakes and a third score. And the offense can’t do anything much if Vick is forced to play like Kevin Kolb. And folks like me, pointing out that there is a quarterback on the roster who absolutely can dink and dunk (two NFC player of the week awards in six starts) with the best of them, watches the season evaporate under the shaky, yet very expected, existing quarterback play.

Trying To Figure Out Why I Am Wrong

2010-12-21T15:58:00.004-05:00

In the world of football, I am a believer in order. Raw performance numbers add up to points and then wins- you can deconstruct an approach and put in on some sort of meritocracy spectrum. For years I have opined that 100 yards rushing per game doesn’t matter in C-USA, the importance of completion percentages in a spread offense, etc.

And yet here are Michael Vick and the Eagles, casting a huge shadow over my assertions of the importance of lots of completions, lots of passing yards to winning football games. I seek to laud the quarterback ideal of Brees and Manning and Brady. And I get Michael Vick- winning.

Here are Michael Vick’s last seven games (Eagles lost the asterisked game)- his recent consecutive game starting streak:

17 completions, 218 yards
20 completions, 333 yards
24 completions, 258 yards
29 completions, 333 yards*
22 completions, 302 yards
16 completions, 270 yards
21 completions, 242 yards

I mean, pretty pedestrian totals- particularly when you note the big 29-333 game was a loss, chasing Chicago from behind. In that seven game stretch, Vick features six games of 24 or fewer completions. Drew Brees has less than 24 completions only once in his last seven starts. In Vick’s stretch of seven starts above, he has 149 completions, Brees has 191 over the same period. Similar metrics (300+ yard games) feature the same glaring disparity. So, how are the Eagles overcoming that discrepancy?

Ultimately, I guess this method to victory is hard to do- but not impossible? I mean, the Eagles do get all the bad stuff that goes with a quarterback who can’t sustain passing proficiency: entire halves with little production (twice versus New York, Giants game, Bears, Houston, red zone woes. Their “straight” offense clicks in at a very routine two touchdowns, a few FGs, a game versus good defenses.

But, since Vick took over, the Eagles consistently generate unreal scores from outside the aforementioned straight, routine offense. Every game they seemingly get one or two scores from gigantic plays: giant McCoy and Vick runs, punt returns, bombs to Jackson, Celek- which gooses the base offense performance literally 10-14 points a game over expected from the simple totals. The Eagles have unreal skill players with big play capacity everywhere.

Add in a good turnover performance, and the Eagles have kind of recreated the best part of the McNabb era- an excellent big play to turnover ratio fueled by a mobile quarterback and superior skill players (substitute Jackson, McCoy and Celek for TO, Westbrook and Chad Johnson).

So far it has been enough to compensate for the dozen or so fewer completions Vick leaves on the table each week. And that is the story of the season headed into the post-season. The Eagles’ defense has real problems- so they need to score north of 28 to win consistently.

Philadelphia has made an atypical formula work so far: get giant plays routinely. It is really hard to gameplan for, to predict- let's all go out there and in the general course of things we'll generate half-a-dozen head shaking plays. That is probably why I have problems with it. To Coach Reid’s credit, he seems to get it- dialing up bombs, aggressive fourth down calls, taking shots at the end zone on any down and distance, even from his own side of the field.

The Eagles don’t even pretend to be anything but crazy-time on offense. And it takes them out of my rational expectations bucket- into a realm of great play and players versus routine execution.

Yum. I Love Cupcakes

2010-12-17T01:39:00.002-05:00

There was anger at the quality of out of conference competition, particularly in light of the shaky C-USA slate, when the 2010-2011 Tulane men’s basketball schedule was announced. I don’t want to say it was unjustified. I mean, it is lousy. If I were a paying client, I’d be rubbing my temples. Start with Lamar and Maryland-Eastern Shore and Alabama State (trust me, it goes on and on), add in UNO (leaving Division I), throw in a couple actual non-Division I programs, and Tulane achieves uninteresting rock bottom scheduling.

But maybe, such misgivings were misplaced?

To that end, I’m starting to get a better feeling about Coach Ed Conroy. While there is an awful lot about Coach that is still undetermined, I sense that he is a guy with a strategic plan that goes past survival.

Readers here know I am about plans- and sport a belief that Tulane basketball is an easier fix than football. Certainly there are more routes to excellence, and a lot of mid-majors with minimal resources enjoy success. And one route teams have used to sustainability is to schedule cupcakes: to give the impression of momentum in the absence of real progress. This blueprint is definable, been executed, quantifiable. Heck, Coach rode such a strategy of manageable opponents right out of Citadel.

The Tulane community is going to be a lot more forgiving about this schedule if Coach pulls it off. Putting a decent win total up, insulating the program from rock bottom will feel better in March. Sure, the knowledgeable fan will know it is largely a mirage. But the fact the Coach Conroy had a vision and executed said vision- exhibiting tactical competence- will go a long way to people giving him a real chance. There is no need, no soul-satisfying penance, to actually achieve utter six-win irrelevance.

Basically, Coach Conroy wants to build a bakery, devouring soft cupcakes in every hue to success. If, to execute right now the design competently, he had to schedule real program disasters- at the very least, we should acknowledge there is a viable scheme being executed. More than one can say about baseball/football.

This should not be underestimated- selecting a path that has been successfully blazed and vetted, then further actually executing. One of my routine frustrations with the Tulane community, particularly with the revenue sports, is the refusal to just look around, see what the success metrics are, and copy them.

More than any League going, C-USA gives you the success template. For example, you have a football League that defines itself by the passing game: star quarterbacks, wild skill position receiving numbers, officials instructed to call endless defensive secondary penalties. And then I get an e-mail this week pointing me to a Facebook page, with 17 “fans”, calling for Tulane to install the triple option.

Well, that is eighteen people who simply aren’t credible discussing macro program woes. It is not just Bob Toledo who does not get it, who seeks to do something real risky and really hard and against the entire League carefully cultivated culture. It is almost refreshing that Tulane might actually have a coach with a realistic strategic plan and seeming tactical execution.

Sure, Coach Conroy can’t get away with it forever. There is no road to the NIT here- just faux momentum. But the chances for success are exponentially greater with an executed plan than ad hoc strategies. Or the triple option.

Merry Cliffmas! Happy Halladays!

2010-12-15T14:40:00.000-05:00

Posted without comment.

Trent Mackey

2010-12-13T10:07:00.003-05:00

A lot of C-USA positional play deviates from the norm associated with the NFL. It is not a League of drop back quarterbacks, tweeners dominate the receiving corps, road grader guards are absent, and safeties are not neatly divided into run stuffers, big hitters and coverage assets. But one big exception is the middle linebacker. Done correctly, the “mike” is right off the NFL drawing board.

Like the NFL, C-USA is a passing league with credible quarterback play. It is also a League that rewards getting to point of attack. Due to the spread, similar in concept to the NFL multiple-receiver set(s), it is hard to routinely bring reinforcements into the defensive tackle box. No team can consistently commit safeties inside, or to the run, whole covering four, five receiving options. Even a third linebacker is problematic; C-USA is a league that loves nickel corners to combat the extra receivers and mobile quarterbacks.

So the middle linebacker is alone. But, the absence of extra tight ends and fullbacks means less blocking at the second level. So, if you can cover and move to running back, there are plethoras of tackles to be made. And that is what linebacker done correctly is all about in the NFL and C-USA- accumulating stops.

For large stretches, mike was done correct at Tulane by the choice here for defensive MVP: Trent Mackey.

The Tulane defense really had two iterations this year- the not so bad early effort and the worn out late season mess. Mackey was the clear catalyst for the early renaissance. He leveraged some adequate defensive tackle play into lots of stops. He led the team is “assists”- only Alex Wacha was close (61 assists to 49)- because he brought that mobility inside. Guys would get that first hand on a skill player- and Mackey would clean’em up.

With a decent inside run defense, Tulane was able to, for the first time since Elpheage left, consistently commit safeties to cheat to other things. Since the safeties are pretty good, Tulane could create actual match-up problems. A whole lot of that Rutgers win was set up by Tulane’s ability to commit extra guys to pass coverage and pass rush: people were double covered, multiple blitzers were committed, outright creativity on defense possible- because Mackey was holding the fort inside.

Then the Army game happened, exposing the mess Tulane was away from Mackey in the second level, successfully attacking via run and pass the OLBs. Then, small for an inside player (almost a strong safety body), Mackey wore down- indifferent versus Rice, invisible versus UCF. After the Rutgers game, Mackey’s big play capacity evaporated over the final seven games: only had two “tackles for loss” (both versus Rice), no sacks or picks. The Wave collapsed.

I was very tempted to award this MVP to Shakiel Smith- certainly the most underrated member of the Tulane team. Smith was not the best player on Tulane’s defense for the whole season- but he was arguably the best player in the game they won. Both he and Mackey were fantastic in the Rutgers game- but Smith had a very valiant game (2 interceptions, 14 unassisted tackles, 18 total tackles) amid the defensive craziness and failures versus Rice.

Cairo Santos

2010-12-11T07:53:00.001-05:00

Somewhere in the bowels of various buildings, devoted to services that scout collegians for the NFL, there are folks inscribing on an index card, or typing in to their computer, the names of guys that surfaced on their radar in 2010. I imagine just one guy made that list from Tulane for sure. And since he played on the black hole that was special teams at Tulane, he is an easy choice for Special Teams MVP.

In 2010, the Special Teams as presented by the well-coached Toledo regime, were the greatest disaster on American soil since the Hindenberg. Kick coverage was beyond terrible. The return game wasn’t much better- and any slight bump in performance over the coverage units was negated by some absolutely brutal turnovers.

Now, there is contemplation in the Tulane community that this was a failure of x’s and o’s- that the youngish second team players that populate the kicking teams are talented, yet misused. I disagree- I think it is because those second team players aren’t really good, that the Toledo recruiting renaissance is a total mirage.

I’ll point to the most noticeable prognostic of the lack of down roster talent populating special teams- the never ending sequence of return men. Eight players returned multiple kicks this year (another three returned one). Even Jordan Stephany got himself into the mix for the last game of the season and his career (2 returns-19 yards). The list goes on: Strozier, Thomas, Banks, the disasterous Van Hooser experiment. That staggering total wasn’t due to injury or sorting out just who was the best of many good options. It was failure again and again. None of them can play C-USA football at a decent level.

The special teams were littered with guys who are just not real good at this level- not because they were not taught properly. Which makes the selection of an MVP pretty straightforward.

PK Cairo Santos had a real nice season kicking field goals: 13-16, only one miss inside of 39 yards. Frankly, he was, along with Ryan Griffin completion percentage and Trent Mackey tackling, one of the three good things that were just routine, easy.

Southern Mississippi’s Danny Hrapmann was first team all C-USA (26 for 30, long of 54) and East Carolina’s Michael Barbour, Jr. was second team (14 for 16, long of 52). Those are similar “make’em” percentages- although Cairo did not bang through any long ones.

The point is that Santos is very near their class, the top class- a rare spot where you can say that about Tulane. I’m not worried so much about nailing a pair of 50-yarders per season as making them all from inside the 40-yard attempt range.

Now he has three years to add 12-15 yards to his leg strength to be a pro-prospect or 8-10 to be all C-USA. He is a nice prospect- and it would help these special teams if he could bury a few more kick-offs, particularly in the Dome.

Lastly, good for LS John Edwards get an honorable mention on the all C-USA team. He does a good job.

Pete Hendrickson

2010-12-09T10:00:00.003-05:00

I go to Florida for 48 hours: one day is the earliest freeze on record, the other featured the coldest recorded temperature on that date in 140 years. Then, NYC OTB closes. It is piling on the Tulane fan.

The blog will continue to remain dark to mourn the Toledo-naut victory. And while I will still be winding Frank Helps You Think It All Out down, I still have some more time in me. So, as always, the blog will begin the Tulane football post-season review with the campaign’s best and worst. Today, the offense will be featured.

Offensive MVP: LT Pete Hendrickson

Anytime you select as an offensive MVP a non-skill position player, particularly in C-USA, you open yourself to a fair charge of overthinking.

But real quick, what was the best position grouping for Tulane this year? I’d argue safety, followed by offensive line. And Pete Hendrickson was the best of that lot.

The other two rational candidates were Orleans Darkwa and Ryan Griffin. Darkwa did grow on me as the season progressed- but he had pretty pedestrian, decent games versus UTEP and Rice, did not play at all versus Rutgers. Hard to give a guy an MVP award who was largely “okay” or non-existent in the I-A games Tulane won. Part of that is also Darkwa never got involved in the passing game (17 receptions)- an important part of offense in this League.

Ryan Griffin had a nice season- finishing right at 60% completion percentage (223-372, 2371 yards, 14 TDs, 8 INT). But while Griffin was lauded here this season, there is a long way in C-USA from decent quarterback play to awesome, destructive C-USA quarterback play. Griffin simply was not a plus player, merely mostly okay.

On the whole, the Tulane offensive line was good- and played their best in the games Tulane won: super versus Rutgers and Rice, good versus UTEP. And Hendrickson had a strong, consistent, healthy season- the keystone to this quality group of C-USA players. Despite injuries to the best RB and QB, and an utter disaster at WR, Tulane could both run and pass adequately this year. That was due to good o-line play.

Now, Hendrickson isn’t a real good NFL prospect; I doubt he will be drafted. He is deficient in a lot of requirements for NFL tackles- not nimble enough to get out after edge rushers, ungainly at times. His weight (308 lbs) doesn’t flatter the 6’8” frame, not thick enough. He’d be a better prospect at 6’ 3”.

But he is real strong, and really leaned on defensive ends all season. Any defensive linemen, even BCS League players, he could catch, get his hands on, he simply controlled. The picture above is real illustrative- if Hendrickson gets his hands on quality pass rush specialist Tyrell Graham, Graham is clearly in trouble.

You don’t get that raw, brute strength in a giant much in C-USA. In fact, I cannot think of a Tulane offensive linemen who grew in stature, as opposed to simple size, so much in his time at Tulane.

At the risk of being open to yet another charge- that this a lifetime achievement award versus an MVP- Hendrickson has been a quality C-USA tackle, a real anchor, for three years. Tulane will miss him.

Disappointment Award: AP DJ Banks

All-Purpose player DJ Banks was not touted highly coming out of high school, but experienced summer buzz due to some touting by coaches and yogwf.

Then the season started- and I wondered frequently here what the fuss was all about. It is perhaps no surprise that his best game was versus Southeastern Louisiana. He is clearly a good prospect, but for I-AA.

Much like the NBA, FBS football is the death of tweeners: Banks is a 6’4” small forward. Like many all-purpose style players, Banks has a nice, broad collection of skills- until one realizes that none are I-A. He is a tiny target, can’t block, “speedy for a quarterback” which is not the same thing as “speedy for a wide out”. It was hard to get him the ball in the straight offense, and hard to play him in the straight offense unless he got the ball. That is a hard equation to square.

Banks probably made the right decision to transfer out. He’d be a good player at McNeese, helpful in the Sunbelt.

Darkness

2010-12-03T02:45:00.003-05:00

From The Hulaballo:

Despite persistent rumors of a potential coaching change, Tulane athletic director Rick Dickson decided Wednesday to retain Bob Toledo as the head coach of the struggling Green Wave football program. Toledo has compiled a 13-35 record during his four seasons with the Wave.

Tulane gave Toledo a one-year extension with an option for the 2012 season. Toledo was also given an endorsement from University President Scott Cohen.

Despair. Darkness.

Accordingly, the blog will go black for mourning.

Matt Schaub

2010-12-02T08:39:00.004-05:00

What? Yet another dissenter?

----------------------------------------
Eagles-Texans Scouting Report

Quarterback

Eagles: Even though he's completed almost 65 percent of his attempts the last two games, Michael Vick has failed to capitalize on some big-play chances. The Giants and Bears contained him as a runner with a disciplined pass rush and zone coverage behind it. Vick has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry the last 2 weeks.

Texans: Matt Schaub is a pocket passer who has a good grasp of the system. He is most effective when the Texans' rushing attack provides teeth to his play-action game. Schaub is least effective when he is forced out of the pocket and has to make plays on the move. He has thrown just seven interceptions in 367 attempts this season.

Pick: Texans
-----------------------------

Now Matt Schaub is better than Vick? Even more shocking- he's right, Schaub is better.

People Are Catching Up

2010-12-01T09:13:00.004-05:00

Rumblings that all is not right with the "MVP" quarterback Michael Vick:

Last week, the Eagles converted just 1 of 5 red-zone opportunities against the Giants. But thanks to five giveaways by the Giants, they still managed to cruise to a 27-17 win.

They weren't so lucky against the Bears. This time, another dreadful 1-for-5 red-zone performance resulted in a five-point loss....

And then this:

Aside from a 4-for-4 red-zone performance in their impressive, could-do-no-wrong, 59-28 win over the Redskins 2 weeks ago, the Eagles have been struggling in the red zone for a while now. Take out the Washington game and they're a lousy 6-for-23 in the red zone in their last five games.

That last quote really gives you a sense of the endless laudatory coverage Vick gets. Instead of reading "struggling in the red zone for a while now", it should read "struggling in the red zone since Vick took over at quarterback."

The Eagles have just six total TDs in this recent stretch of Colts, Giants and Bears- two of those TDs were the result of giant, atypical McCoy rushes, another was pretty close to garbage time. They have good, proven skill players who can catch and get open: Jackson, Maclin, McCoy, Celek. What is the problem?

Can’t leave Michael Vick out of that answer. The Colts, Bears and Giants offer decent-to-good defenses. With the back of the end zone providing safety help, these teams cheat the run- particularly the run from Vick. Kept in the pocket, unable to extend plays, Vick isn’t even an average passer. He’s inaccurate (this guy has missed more big throws in four weeks than McNabb did in seasons- and no one says anything), and no one would describe him as heady.

Between the twenties, Vick can outrun the defensive secondary support, beat the safety ot the first down marker, get away from the linebacker containing on the edge. His quality receiving corps gets open, which eliminates the need for throwing perfection. But near the goal line, he is a liability.

The Eagles would not be 6-for-23 in the red zone with Kolb at quarterback. Frankly, it seems hard to argue that Kolb isn’t a better guy to throw those tight slants and fades. Kolb might not have a cannon- but he is a proficient read it and throw it quarterback (ed. note: two NFC player of the week awards in his first six starts). And it is a small leap from “clearly better in the red zone “ to “clearly better".

The Vick for MVP pick talk has died. Next, the pro-Bowl talk will peter out as the ceiling of one, maybe two touchdowns a game against even decent defenses becomes increasingly clear.

It is all about understanding the League. It isn’t the NBA- a star-system where the elite rewrite the rules. It is more like baseball- where the pursuit of important numbers and metrics ruthlessly rule outcomes. And you can’t be a good quarterback in this league if you cannot pass the football accurately. Vick is fun and different- but there is that specific hole in his game. And the League is catching up weekly. Vick gets out of the pocket less. There are fewer blitzers- and more “go ahead and beat the coverage Michael”. And the cruel metrics- red zone pass completion percentage, yards per attempt, time to accurate release- start driving poor red zone success ratios.

By Christmas there will be a burgeoning chorus for Kolb.

It Is Time

2010-11-29T07:30:00.001-05:00

Over eight years here, only once have I argued for the head of an executive authority figure. Frankly, I am not a big fan of firing coaches. At a place like Tulane, there is no guarantee the new guy will be any better. Tulane football doesn’t attract the hot assistant, the guy looking for the next step up. Thus, the associated drama, the lost recruiting class, normally isn’t worth it- the “clear and present danger” standard is necessary.

In my opinion, the problems with Bob Toledo are clear and present. Accordingly, Tulane should remove Bob Toledo from his duties as head coach.

The current analysis on Toledo is largely backward looking- yet a coaching change should be predicated on the future. A new coach is hired to elevate existing talent, find new talent and rebuild fan base. Bob Toledo’s record is surely indefensible on those matters. His FBS record is a horrid 10-35 in a four year span- a span where every other C-USA team has played a Bowl game. But ultimately it doesn’t matter unless the new guy can advance the program.

The hypothetical “average Tulane football coach” should be able to do four things: win 4-7 regular season FBS games a year, play a bowl game every few years, graduate tons of players, have zero program embarrassments. The last time things were “normal” at Tulane was the brief stretch between Terry Bowden and the unholy duopoly of Katrina and Athletic Review- and the thoroughly mediocre Chris Scelfo made those targets.

The second half of the Scelfo tenure did not meet those goals. But I argued for his retention on the grounds above- that no one of any real merit would take this job on the heels of losing, Katrina and program review. Rather than attracting a hot SEC property (Tommy Bowden), the Wave was reduced to position coaches at North Carolina and busted coordinators at New Mexico. But now, as the Review and Katrina fades, only the losing remains. A higher class of coach could consequently be recruited to Tulane.

So what exactly about the Toledo regime does Tulane want to continue? I can’t figure that one out.

One semi-popular notion that needs to be totally disabused is that the underclassmen are increasing in talent- that Coach Toledo and staff have turned the corner there. That is simply wrong.

I’ve spent a lot of time this year writing about the disproportionate impact from the down roster player in our League. I had been trying to figure out what exactly gets a bad C-USA team to six wins. All C-USA outfits have a few quality players. But re-populating those next roster spots, the spots after the guys who clearly belong in I-A, the spots from fifteen to forty on the dress chart, with real FBS players- and subsequently removing guys who would be assets at Southern, is key. So Frank helps You Think It All Out has looked at the second tier guys and their production, trying to tear eyes away from Mackey and Smith and Griffin and Wacha.

It is not encouraging. Start with some easy, clear examples. C-USA is a quarterback League. Your second quarterback is definitely one of those guys populating the roster in the fifteen to forty range. Heck, many good-looking underclassmen prospects are already playing against Tulane this season. Well, where are ours? Do you think Toledo would be playing a barely adequate senior, with no future in the program, if he had any viable alternatives with a pulse?

Casey Robottom got hurt. This is a skill position League- so the second, third, fourth, fifth wideouts are important members of the 15 thru 40 club. Lots of room, lots of opportunity to step up. And Banks, Grant, etc. were unable to make a sustained contribution. Sure, they make an occasional play when Tulane can find a similar character on Rice or UTEP or Marshall who also should be at McNeese. Still, which of these down roster guys are as good as Chris Bush?

Same thing at running back. Orleans Darkwa can play- but who else? Of twenty or so skill players in the program- maybe two project to something north of decent, something better than Andre Anderson.

There is no renaissance here. There is no talent surge coming from this roster next year. Give me a potential skill position axis as good as the Jeremy Williams, Andre Anderson, Casey Robottom? Who are the secondary, good prospect quarterbacks like Richard Irvin and Scott Elliott? They don’t exist. And as we watched the defense decay, desperate for a youthful infusion, we learned many other positions are even worse.

Toledo couldn’t coach up the talent he inherited- Tulane has yet to win even the modest four I-A games Toldeo in inherited in 2007. He cannot find new talent. And the increasingly vacant Dome speaks volumes about his program building.

An underreported story of the Toledo era is just how exasperating mainstream fans, the quiet majority, find him. From day one, excuses and sulking and odd character acts- from obtuse lectures on teaching Tulane to win, to blaming fans for canceling the parking lot walk through, to throwing players out of practice before a McNeese State tilt, insisting on summer weight programs as if they were the problem. On and on- who doesn’t have a headshaking moment? The fact that Toledo thinks this nonsense is relevant to his underperformance suggests he just doesn’t get the job he is trying to do.

Ultimately, that is just it. He doesn’t get it. He doesn’t get non-BCS football. You can’t be a program CEO if you are clueless as to the nature of the business. He doesn’t get how to recuit the right players- even Rice, UAB, Memphis and Marshall win with their recruits on occasion. He doesn’t get the nature of offense in this League. He doesn’t get the raw importance of program development, how to be a public face. In his head, he is still the coach at UCLA.

Unlike four years ago, Tulane is not coming off real external disaster. Coupled with a repeated, demonstrated university commitment to give new coaches multiple years to get the program even semi-pointed in the right direction (back to Greg Davis really), this is a better job than four years ago. So, frankly, let’s give Tulane another chance with another coach. This experiment has run its course.

Prediction Thursday- Marshall

2010-11-24T08:43:00.007-05:00

Lost amid the holiday hubbub, a pretty important game looms for the Tulane Green Wave Saturday up at Marshall. Let’s take a second to remember where we were back in August:

From an off-season prediction standpoint, this off-season has been a hard one for the Tulane faithful. Forecasters have been brutal to the Green Wave. A bevy of national publications pick Tulane to be truly horrible. Sports Illustrated reportedly has them dead last- in the entire country! The Orlando Sentinal has them 116 out of 120 BCS Division outfits. Lindy, Athlon, TSN, USA Today and Phil Steele have Tulane picked for last in C-USA West.

A fifth win, and a third conference victory, would be a pretty nifty turnaround from a team widely viewed as the very worst in the country.

The New York post fails to share the optimism, listing the Herd -9 over Tulane this morning.

If you avail yourself of the link above that takes you to the blog article that quote comes from, you will see I pooh-poohed the idea of a finish that horrid. I pointed out that no one with decent quarterbacking, which Tulane absolutely had in Ryan Griffin, could be rock bottom.

Unfortunately, Tulane’s problems now begin at quarterback. Heck, I don’t know who is going to play? And with a reserve, possibly three deep (DJ Ponder I guess?), doing the pitching, the defense a burnt out wreck- we need to entertain the idea Tulane is back at rock bottom.

None of the major second half story lines have been encouraging, eating at the vitals of the early success. The defense seems tired- and the lack of reinforcements from the bench is glaring from a team whose recruiting had supposedly picked up (where are those guys?). Good helpful play at quarterback has disappeared, the wide receivers are poor. Only the tailback seems capable of a decent cartoon offensive number.

Marshall isn’t great. But they seem to have a few more players- particularly on defense. They Herd has won three of their last four- defeating UTEP, UAB, Memphis- holding all three under 17.

That is probably where Tulane is on offense right now too- rock bottom in C-USA. Add in the zapped defense- and this engaged Marshall team ought to roll comfortably here. So Marshall -9 over Tulane to run the ATS mark to 8-4.

BlogPoll Week 13

2010-11-23T09:39:00.000-05:00

You people figure out the Big 12.

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 13

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	LSU Tigers	--
4	Wisconsin Badgers	--
5	Boise St. Broncos	--
6	TCU Horned Frogs	--
7	Ohio St. Buckeyes	1
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
9	Stanford Cardinal	2
10	Michigan St. Spartans	--
11	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
12	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	1
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
15	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-8
16	Missouri Tigers	--
17	Texas A&M Aggies	3
18	Oklahoma Sooners	-1
19	Arizona Wildcats	4
20	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	-1
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	-3
22	Nevada Wolf Pack	2
23	Florida St. Seminoles	--
24	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	1
25	USC Trojans	-3
Dropouts: Miami Hurricanes

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Help

2010-11-22T15:51:00.003-05:00

Let’s say you were a mad scientist- and, in a fit of cruelty, decided to recreate the end of the 2009 Tulane football experience?

Perhaps you might start with this year’s football team. Then, remove Ryan Griffin, and re-instate the spotty quarterback play. Take the current defense, pound on them until they are simply worn out, a shell of the unit that took the field earlier in the season versus Rutgers. The empty Dome and horrid special teams are already in place.

"Poof!”

Tulane and the fans are right back to the brutal end of last season- a crushing blowout, an exact repeat of last year’s UCF mess.

This is a game, like Rice last week, where Tulane needed to score to keep up, protect the defense, cover for both turnover and special teams woes. Kevin Moore just isn’t that guy, particularly playing from way behind with no one any good to throw too: DJ Banks zero catches (benched?), Ryan Grant four catches, one turnover. Plus, if Kemp is going to be a limited player at the quarterback position, he can’t be turning the ball over three times. This was going to be a tough game no matter what- but losing the turnover battle four-love made it hopeless.

The Wave could run it- a bright spot. Orleans Darkwa continued his nice rookie campaign with 129 yards, plus 13 carries for a nifty 63 in the first half, saved a bit perhaps by not losing either of his two fumbles. Sure, that sort of production is irrelevant based in an environment where you need to game plan to score six, seven touchdowns to just sort of be in it. Still, the RB position figures to be a plus next year- and unlike this campaign, at least one skill position figures to forecast better than average coming in to the 2011 season.

Bottom line, the defense just doesn’t have much left- an unreal 156 total points have been scored versus Tulane in the past three tilts. That is unreal- coming four years in to the Toledo regime. Surely the 'nauts cannot argue Toledo has "improved the defense".

We’ve seen the Green Wave wear down before. The lack of down roster talent, the roster spots after the first fifteen, is particularly painful now, late in the schedule. These are the guys that populate the woeful special teams, the guys you turn to when some rejuvenating fresh legs just about anywhere would help. But Tulane just doesn’t have them- so the kicking game is a wreck and there are no reinforcements for the weary.

Add in a well-coached, well-motivated opposition, and trouble was likely.

Vegas Knows The Wrong Quarterback Is Playing

2010-11-19T11:25:00.004-05:00

This blurb ran in the New York Post this morning:

The Giants will try to go point-for-point with the Eagles with three starters — center Shaun O’Hara, left tackle David Diehl and receiver Steve Smith — again unable to play and another starter, left tackle Shawn Andrews, possibly out with a sore back.

Manning showed some edge this week... He didn’t buy for one moment that the Giants should be concerned with the injuries to hit the offensive line or that rookie Duke Calhoun would have to play a more prominent role with Smith sidelined and Ramses Barden out for the remainder of the season. “Duke’s the only guy that doesn’t have any playing experience,” Manning said. “Everybody else has played and done some good stuff.”
What about Kevin Boothe, who last week was activated for the first time all season and has to start at left tackle? “He’s played in the past,” Manning said. What about Will Beatty, who will have to start if Andrews can’t play? “Started for us,” Manning said.

Looking at last week’s results- Eagles humiliating Washington, New York being humiliated by Dallas- is anyone else shocked that the Eagles are only -3 over the Giants? A line implying a toss-up at a neutral site?

I’m not. Because both Vegas and I know the Eagles are playing the wrong quarterback.

Sure, the Eagles looked very nifty destroying an increasing mess in Washington behind those twenty Vick completions.

But Vegas and I know that consistent low completion total is an issue. Heck, let's cast back a mere week. Against Indianapolis, a mere step up to “decent” on defense from Washington, those twenty-ish completions led to a very Vick like 2 TDs, and only one TD over the last 58 minutes. People who make these lines know how the League works. A quarterback who can't complete passes can't routinely score 24 points against decent pro outifts.

Playing the non-comatose Giants defense, figure a likely revert back for Vick- to two scores versus seven- and Eli Manning looks likely, 50-50, to keep up. Vegas certainly sees no advantage in having Vick’s two touchdown capacity in there versus Manning.

Otherwise, how do you explain it? I know it sounds nuts- but there is the proof in black and white from people who know how the game works.

Psst... if Kolb were starting, would this game be even in Vegas? Hardly. The Eagles would be -6 over New York.

Prediction Thursday- UCF

2010-11-18T09:27:00.005-05:00

Of all the teams in C-USA, UCF seems the most anonymous. Tulane has only played this team once since Chris Scelfo left- which, I think we can all agree, seems like an eon ago. It was a desultory, 10-9 win in an empty Dome that made a lot of people mad because victory made firing the coach harder.... an atmosphere we can totally recreate Saturday!

That single game in the Toledo "era" was last year’s rout. Coach Toledo has given us many, many low points- but that whipping last year was perhaps the lowest. I ranted:

This is embarrassing- this display in Florida. I’ve never been ashamed of Tulane- but this effort today... it is hard not to be furious.

I remember those Toledo-nauts belittling the doubters- “Coach Toledo is teaching Tulane how to win”. Remember that ‘nauts!? Well, he sure as heck taught them to quit. Toledo is a joke.

Quitters. Quit on their school, fans, coach and families.

We fans don't quit. We send money, attend repeated ruthless beatings... and this "performance" is the result. Are you kidding me Toledo?

UCF is not 50 points better than Tulane. Period. It takes laying down like dogs to get beat like that by this mediocre C-USA outfit.

Perhaps colored by that beating, the New York Post generously puts UCF -17 over Tulane this morning.

This line has seesawed all over the place, jumping between 15 to 20 markers, largely due to the unknown status of Tulane’s improving quarterback Ryan Griffin. Consequently, one has to make that determination first, and I am supposing that Ryan Griffin won’t play.

Which sort of pushed this game out of the realm of an x’s and o’s question to a psychological test: can Tulane put together the sort of effort required to hang around here?

I’m not encouraged. Frankly, the Rice win was not the mark of anything resembling momentum or improvement. There was nothing there indicative of football things that Tulane could recreate routinely in the absence of the Rice Owls: the impact wide receivers, the numerous turnovers. The two remaining late season story lines emerging are not encouraging: the wide outs aren’t very good and the defense looks increasingly worn down. Let's remember the meltdown in the second half versus SMU and the astonishing 95 points scored on the Wave the last two games.

Last week loss to Southern Miss aside, UCF is the class of the League this year. Unfortunately, the Knights also tons to play for here- which equates to good effort and scoring the ball. QB Jeff Godfrey is one of the top true freshmen in the whole country- and my pick as newcomer of the year in C-USA. He is one of those distribution quarterbacks (65% pass completion percentage) who is mobile (505 yards rushing) that make Tulane’s slow perimeter defenders look so terrible.

Opposing skill players have been just outrunning the Wave’s OLBs and corners to the play- and Jeff Godfrey is a guy who can either throw to the seams and flats or carry it there himself (ed. note: he is also the shortest, smallest quarterback I've seen in awhile). Add in talented RB Ronnie Weaver as a nifty complementary option (12 carries-112 yards last week) who can also easily get outside and I simply can’t find any reason, any executable agenda, that suggests this week is where the Wave defense rebounds, holds a team under 40.

And I worry about the offense. Kevin Moore isn’t terrible at all- he is actually a very good option as a back-up goes. He's experienced (400+ career attempts, 14 TDs), seen the elephant, won’t be scared. But who is he going to throw to in this motley assortment of receivers? UCF is going to have tons of guys in the box, targeting Darkwa. It will be a hard road to 20 points.

Add in the requisite special teams disasters, return game follies and this is a game where Tulane figures to get drilled. The Wave has simply not handled prosperity well the past two years, losing every game by two scores or more after a win this year and featuring really poor play in 2009 losses to Rice and Marshall last year after the Wave's two FBS wins. Feels like a whipping again. I’ll take UCF -17 over Tulane in the attempt to run the ATS mark to 7-4.

BlogPoll Week 12

2010-11-17T09:13:00.004-05:00

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 12

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	LSU Tigers	--
4	Wisconsin Badgers	--
5	Boise St. Broncos	--
6	TCU Horned Frogs	--
7	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
10	Michigan St. Spartans	--
11	Stanford Cardinal	1
12	Arkansas Razorbacks	-1
13	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	1
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	7
15	Virginia Tech Hokies	2
16	Missouri Tigers	2
17	Oklahoma Sooners	3
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	-5
19	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	-3
20	Texas A&M Aggies	--
21	Miami Hurricanes	4
22	USC Trojans	--
23	Arizona Wildcats	-4
24	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
25	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	--
Dropouts: Utah Utes, Florida Gators, Central Florida Knights, Penn St. Nittany Lions

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

As we horseplayers say, a lot of form this weekend- not too much craziness at the top.

After UCF's disappointing performance, we're back to having Tulsa as C-USuckA charity representative.

I am not dinging SEC teams harshly any more for losing tough conference games. Someone who is top 25 is going to have four League losses. That same four loss team would beat Boise St. 50-50 at home.

I am very close to being convinced TCU is the best mid-major... I just don't think Boise State is as good as past iterations. The defense is suspect to me.

USC will finish in the top ten.

Our League's Entertaining Product Gone Awry

2010-11-15T08:57:00.002-05:00

While grateful for the win, I am inclined to dismiss most of the tactical elements. I just can’t separate the good play from the general ineptitude- particularly of the Rice defense.

Ryan Grant can’t generate a big play all season- and suddenly he’s wide open sixty yards downfield with a minute to go? Cody Sparks can’t get open all season and suddenly he’s plucking balls from everywhere? Or is Rice that bad on pass defense? Beats me. Further, the picture to the upper left is indicative- powerful evidence the Tulane defense made a stop Saturday- otherwise who would believe it?

Still, it is hard to not give at least the Green Wave offense a solid grade. The coach, quarterback, rank and file, were all aggressive and opportunistic. Despite the aggression, they treated every possession as important: zero turnovers. They had a chance to hang their heads late- and instead generated a late super go and get it pitch and catch play.

Orleans Darkwa has a solid day- folding his 29 carries into the larger context of the offense. His 113 yards was even a little pedestrian- but I would argue it was also sensible. One can debate that a team can run the ball to 30 points- but certainly not racing to 50. Plus, Tulane was averaging 15.5 yards a completion, 9.4 yards per attempt. Consequently, Ryan Griffin had a very good day- lots of attempts with a turnover, lots of passing yards and big plays without sacks.

The best part of Griffin’s game was on display: that excellent risk/reward metric. He might not be “great”, but Ryan gives you good stuff without bad stuff- which elevates his paper totals, his intangible worth. Ryan also demonstrated that the ball distributor- Case Keenum style quarterbacking- is the real weapon in this League, versus say the big arm, etc. The last touchdown throw, the bomb to Grant, was all about making the right read, eschewing the checkdown at the right time, rather than dazzling with the big arm. The quarterback can generate 30 yard plays in our League by throwing the ball to the right guy rather than making the big power throw.

Frankly, Tulane can’t refuse that sort of safe production if the Wave is going to score seven TDs. With the Wave defensive woes, Tulane had to score and protect the ball. Good job.

Now, seven touchdowns! Ridiculous?! But ultimately, in C-USA team have to be able to win this sort of shootout. The League is constructed, recruited and officiated to torture defenses- and everyone throws out real stinkers on occasion: see Rice-Houston. To get to seven, eight wins you have to able to win different types of games- and one type is not going home at the half if the C-USA defense is on track to allow 500 yards, 40+ points. In the SEC or Big Ten, that kind of production equals a loss. In C-USA, teams have got to move a few of those games out of the loss column.

Strategically, the fourth win officially crowns this Tulane team as, in spite of pre-season expectations, “improved”.

Tulane has won both games- Rice and Southeastern Louisiana- they have played against teams representative of the bottom 20. If nothing else, it validates Tulane ain’t one of the worst twenty outfits in the country for the first time in Toledo's tenure.

If building program credibility is a goal around uptown New Orleans, Tulane simply cannot lose to Rice, simply cannot lose to Southeastern. The stakes Saturday afternoon weren’t big, but they also are not irrelevant, so one cannot act as if the result does not matter.

Prediction Thursday

2010-11-11T10:40:00.002-05:00

Wow, will the full flower of Coach Toledo and his Toledo-nauts be on display this weekend or what? 2500 literally chillin' in the Dome, a desperate struggle with one of the worst ten teams in the country. The 'nauts asked for this by demanding Scelfo's head. Hope they are enjoying it.

Earlier this week, when the line opened at Tulane -6.5 over Rice, I was pretty sure I would be grabbing the Owls. I was simply going to recite one of my internal handicapping maxims- if you’re getting a touchdown and you think the ‘dog can win outright, grab it- add in some filler, and call it a pick. But the line has now drifted to -4.5- as Vegas gravitates to this “either team can win” idea.

The problem with this game is that Tulane is like Rice- and vice versa. Roster spots 15 through 35 are a problem. By that, I mean the guys that populate the special teams and problem areas on defense are real liabilities capable of shocking let downs. Both teams have enough I-A players that, if they can avoid mistakes, avoid exposing the second tier guys in the return game, etc., they are capable of a decent result: Tulane beat Rutgers, Rice defeated Houston.

But just a regularly, the teams generate a result where a reserve has two fumbles, or the special teams allow repeated, and I mean repeated, big returns. It is seemingly random- up one week versus UTEP, disastrous the next versus Army. Beats me who will melt down more, but the exception is probably your winner.

Tulane probably rates a narrow fave in most minds because the Wave defense has been good in spots while Rice is a 2006 Tulane-style wreck: thirty or more points every single game this season. Also, the Tulane quarterback position is more settled.

In my head, I sort of figure that both outfits have an equal chance to be a mess: Tulane will cover if Rice is a disaster, Rice will win outright if Tulane is terrible and a push probably favors the Wave enough to justify 4.5.

But I’m real concerned about the paper advantage Tulane holds at quarterback. If the first story of the season was Tulane’s semi-rise to defensive competence, the second half has been the utter futility of the receiving corps. Subtract Casey Robottom from the mix, and Tulane has the worst wide receivers corps in C-USA. With no one to throw to, how does Tulane exploit that edge?

DJ Banks is probably the season’s biggest disappointment. By default, he is the number two receiver. But for all the yammering about the triple threat, big play option he is, he doesn’t generate any whatsoever: 2 TDs, his longest reception is 24 yards. Banks seemingly can’t get open (39 catches) which is particularly depressing because, whatever you say about Griffin, he completes passes, he gives guys consistently a chance to make plays at the second level. Kemp has been a bust at receiver (13 catches). Ryan Grant has seen action- but increasingly looks like he is just not that good.

Fortunately, this is the one spot where Tulane might just be able to get away with it. Rice doesn’t bring crazy firepower. So this is a rare League game where the Green Wave does not need to score five TDs to cover, so they will get away with riding Orleans Darkwa.

And the Tulane defense has played well against teams it can control physically. Defensively, they tend to be in it or out- no middle ground. Given a team like Rutgers, playing passively to protect problematic quarterbacks, featuring no dominant running game, Tulane seems to step up more than expected. Last week aside, Sam McGuffie is a very pedestrian League tailback; Rice is featuring multiple quarterbacks not because both can play but due to issues. Tulane controls them.

So barring guys, like Van Hoover and other assorted down roster candidates, having terrible days, this is one the Wave probably should win by a score. Plus, should the game go in to OT, the line under one score keeps you in it. Nervous yet hopeful, we’ll try to take the mark ATS to 6-4 with Tulane -4.5 over Rice.

BlogPoll Week Eleven

2010-11-10T02:54:00.001-05:00

I am not voting for Nevada edition.

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 11

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	LSU Tigers	1
4	Wisconsin Badgers	1
5	Boise St. Broncos	-2
6	TCU Horned Frogs	3
7	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	-3
10	Michigan St. Spartans	4
11	Arkansas Razorbacks	4
12	Stanford Cardinal	4
13	Iowa Hawkeyes	6
14	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	6
15	Utah Utes	-3
16	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	2
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	5
18	Missouri Tigers	-8
19	Arizona Wildcats	-2
20	Oklahoma Sooners	-9
21	South Carolina Gamecocks	-8
22	Florida Gators	--
23	Central Florida Knights	2
24	Penn St. Nittany Lions	--
25	Miami Hurricanes	--
Dropouts: Baylor Bears, N.C. State Wolfpack, Florida St. Seminoles

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Starship

2010-11-09T11:13:00.003-05:00

As Eagles’ fans and the press continue to be agog at the play of Michael Vick, I am a pretty lonely camper up in Section 204 at the Linc. Never have I felt so disconnected from the status quo- watching people tout for MVP a quarterback who, this season, has yet to complete more than 21 passes or throw for more than 300 yards.

Hardly Drew Brees, right? (ed. note: Brees completed more passes in his worst start this season than Vick has in his best start) Sunday, the intelligentsia assured the masses that Vick’s performance was outstanding (again, MVP is routinely floated around).

I agree, that is about as good as Vick can play. But that is just it. After an early, first minute TD set up by a 70 yard run by LeSean McCoy, the Eagles went the rest on the game with only one more touchdown. Heaven knows what sort of plaudits will be rained down on Vick when the Eagles manage to score three touchdowns, or two in a single half?

Vick has efficiently moved the team in spots- but faced for the first time with a decent defense, he struggled in the red zone. If he can’t use his legs, he isn’t efficient enough as a passer to move the ball in tight near the goal.

That is Michael Vick as a passer though. Vick has 72 career starts and five games with a very routine twenty-one or more completions (again, Brees is nine-for-nine on that stat this season). He can dazzle with his legs on occasion- but to get big number scoring like New Orleans, Indianapolis and New England.... At some point, your quarterback needs to be able to throw the ball everywhere on the field. And Vick categorically is problematic.

Ultimately, the Eagles are going to run into a team that will force Vick to beat them throwing – and his “great day” Sunday, 17 for 29, 218 yards is not good enough for more than two TDs routinely. A team cannot win big in this League with that sort of routine production from the quarterback.

Worse, they have chained Kevin Kolb to then bench- a guy who has been NFC Player of the Week twice in six starts. What does he have to do to get a sustained look? Be the best offensive player in the League four times in six starts? five times? fight some dogs?

I point this stuff out to my fellow season ticket holder. He looks at me like I’m nuts. “Launch Starship Vick” is what passes for rational discourse in Philadelphia right now. If Donovan McNabb produced the sort of red zone performance Vick put up there this week, the earth along Columbus Avenue would open up to swallow him.

Tolerable? Or Soul-Sucking?

2010-11-08T14:24:00.001-05:00

As a Tulane fan, we’re pretty used to categorizing defeat. Be it “soul-sucking” or “irritating” or “bad luck”, we can confidently put it in its proper bucket.

In this way, this week’s loss to Southern Mississippi is more tolerable than most. Most of us had little optimism. Southern Miss has more players, a better coach, a veteran quarterback. The Golden Eagles were just better- and Tulane’s effort was spirited. We even get the special teams woes: Toledo just doesn’t have enough bodies in the down roster spots to play good “teams”.

It is just the repeat return follies that are galling. DJ Banks fumbled punt was the umpteenth turnover in the return game by a reserve, back-up return guy. Seriously, stop it. Minimize these back-up guys impact- not look to encourage them to make plays. Tulane obviously cannot just plug and play with the back-up return guys. One of the dozens of coaching professionals has got to tell Banks, absolutely insist, that he is not to handle a punt in that situation inside the ten. Nothing good can come of it- but easy points, momentum, etc. can come from a turnover in that spot. This team has trouble from its first string return guys- so just stop asking the second options to do anything other than the most rudimentary tasks (“get out of the way”) near the Tulane goal.

Conversely, the first half, and first possession of the second half, were a real nice example of a C-USA attack plan. The run/pass ration was good- more passes than runs- and not surprisingly, the competent Griffin was on his way to a 300-yard winning day. Orleans Darkwa was getting good, helpful numbers is a supporting role. But then this depressing second half stretch, a period where they went from being tied 27-27 to down 37-30. Notice anything?

Possession One:
Tln 1-10 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left guard for 6 yards to the TLN32
Tln 2-4 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left end for 4 yards to the TLN36, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-10 Darkwa, Orleans rush up middle for 40 yards to the USM24, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-10 at Usm24 Jason, Payten rush up middle for 8 yards to the USM16
Tln 2-2 at Usm16 Jason, Payten rush up middle for no gain to the USM16
Tln 3-2 at Usm16 Jason, Payten rush over right guard for 7 yards to the USM9, 1ST DOWN TLN
Tln 1-G at Usm09 Jason, Payten rush up middle for 1 yard to the USM8 (GRAY, Anthony).
Tln 2-G at Usm08 Griffin, Ryan middle pass incomplete to Figaro, Devin, QB hurry by LAW, Cordarro.
Tln 3-G at Usm08 Griffin, Ryan slant pass complete to Figaro, Devin for 7 yards to the USM1
Tln 4-G at Usm06 [FG], Santos, Cairo field goal attempt from 23 GOOD

Possession Two:
Tln 1-10 at Tln22 Griffin, Ryan deep pass incomplete to Grant, Ryan.
Tln 2-10 at Tln22 [GUN], Darkwa, Orleans rush draw play for 1 yard to the TLN23
Tln 3-9 at Tln23 [GUN], Griffin, Ryan middle pass incomplete to VAN HOOSER, W..
Tln 4-9 at Tln23 GINSBURGH, J. punt 36 yards

Possession Three:
Tln 1-10 at Tln04 Darkwa, Orleans rush over left guard for 2 yards to the TLN6
Tln 2-8 at Tln06 [GUN], Darkwa, Orleans rush over right guard for 4 yards to the TLN10
Tln 3-4 at Tln10 [GUN], Griffin, Ryan pass incomplete to Grant
Tln 4-4 at Tln10 GINSBURGH, J. punt 30 yards to the TLN40

This three possession period is where Tulane stopped scoring: one mere FG in three possessions in a shootout is problematic. Tulane started running the ball, particularly in good down distance/situations: ten runs/five passes, no first down passes, no second and short passes. Basically, they decide to play to lose.

Take the possession where they score the field goal. The Green Wave runs the ball very well... but again cannot score a touchdown. Toledo is asking an offense, with suspect players all over, to produce eight to ten good running plays a series in order to score. That is eight to ten plays with no turnovers, no bad first down result, no penalties.

It is too much. Tulane cannot run eight good plays in a row. They lack the talent. It is nearly impossible- choosing to lose. Sure, Tulane can run maybe five good rushing plays in seven- but that still equates to stopping themselves somewhere. So in Possession One, Tulane doesn’t get a good result on 1st down just once. Once! It puts the Green Wave in a tricky spot with second/third and long in the red zone- a spot an NFL offense would have trouble in. And that is how, routinely, good rushing totals around here don’t add up to points. It takes too many plays, too many things have to go right in succession. Thus, yet again, Tulane has 60+ yards rushing equaling three points.

Lastly, there was this irritating gem from Coach Toledo- a guy who really needs to keep his trap shut:

“It's just taking us time. We were so far down when I started, and we've progressed steadily. We just haven't turned the corner yet. It's a little better; it's having a few more players. We need more guys who can score touchdowns; we need more guys who can makes plays. We didn't make a bunch of plays tonight."

I would point out that Scelfo’s last team was flat out better than this one: won four games (all I-A), two of its losses were no hope cash road games versus Auburn and LSU, and featured better talent at all key C-USA skill positions: Ricard, Forte, Williams, etc. We’re still two wins away from any of Toledo’s multiple teams getting to the quality of Scelfo’s last outfit.

Prediction Thursday- Southern Mississippi

2010-11-04T10:00:00.003-04:00

Wading through the New York Post’s jubilant election coverage, we are faced with a not so jubilant detail- Southern Mississippi -9.5 over Tulane.

On paper, that is a pretty big number for a Golden Eagles outfit cursed with inconsistency, unable to defeat UAB- an opponent definitely in Tulane’s class. And for all the woe associated with Tulane blowing a 14-point lead to SMU via 28 unanswered second half points, some would point out that SMU really had to work, depend on a crazy, atypical run of play in the second half, to get a mere one score plus cover.

I dunno. After weeks of praising Tulane’s improvement, I’m a little down. The bloom of improvement, the glow of Tulane’s upset win at Rutgers, is dissipating. Heck, I’ve got readers chiding me for missing “easy” selections against Tulane.

The knock on Southern Mississippi is the aforementioned inconsistency- which isn’t exactly fair. They’ve been juggling injuries, but they seem to have got the C-USA offense cranked up: 35 points four weeks in a row, 40 counting OT. Unlike last year, QB Austin Davis isn’t great. But we’ve seen what a competent, low turnover ball distributor can do given a chance to throw 35 times a game: score bunches. Injuries aside, as long as Davis is pitching, USM figures to be a real handful- certainly capable of scoring the type of points needed to cover this sort of number.

No, the inconsistency is on the defense- where they sort of have a Tulane vibe to them: some good players, some issues. Some Saturdays they hang in gamely (particularly versus the run), other Saturdays it is an avalanche. I wrote about this a few weeks back versus Tulsa:
You have to think about C-USA a little different. Defenses in the NFL tend to fail in stages- sort of a linear progression from good-to-okay-to-bad. C-USA defenses tend to gap down, a geometric reaction versus arithmetic- like a bridge sagging, sagging, sagging, then utter failure. I tend to think that stems from a talent gap factor. There is an ability step down in the NFL from star to starter to reserve. But that gap is miniscule to the step down in C-USA. You can have a pro prospect one place, and a guy who might not start for Harvard at another. In the NFL you might occasionally have one or two defenders who totally can’t handle their assignments. In C-USA, you routinely have three or four guys who are just over matched.
To me, here is the selection. Southern Mississippi figures to score here, they can hurt even a plus C-USA defensive outfit. But can Tulane keep up; can it get the USM defense to that point where the critical failure happens? It is a critical point because in games where USM’s defense is not “tested to failure”, they tend to hammer the hapless victims (the exception being a narrow victory over Louisiana Tech).

I’m doubtful for three reasons. First, for some reason, the Tulane offense has decided to take the ball out of Ryan Griffin’s hands (particularly on first and second downs) and give to Darkwa and company. Say what you want about my theories about run/pass ratios in C-USA, but this is an incontrovertible fact: Tulane has struggled in the Toledo regime to turn good rushing totals into points. And that is problematic on a Saturday where Tulane figures to need five TDs just to sort of be in it.

Second, Tulane is still sort of a 50-50 proposition to just play horrid in some typical secondary issue of game performance: turnovers, kick returns or simply stop playing pass defense for a quarter. There is seemingly more talent on the Tulane roster (ed. note: Tulane was a 21.5 'dog last year)- but odd gaps in performance routinely surface. I can’t figure out, construct a formula for which week exactly, but sometimes a huge part of the game plan goes horrible wrong. So we have a weekly 50-50 chance that Tulane won’t play competently enough in some facet of the game to even have chance: back-to-back-to back fumbles versus Army, first quarter woes, etc.

Third, even if they do play competently and have a good run/pass mix, Tulane’s offense simply might not be good enough anyway to break the USM defense.

I’m not optimistic here. Tulane could play well on offense and, due to too much rushing or lack of skill position talent at wide receiver(s), not put the requisite pressure on Southern Mississippi to get the Golden Eagles to collapse. Tulane can very likely play well on offense here: Darkwa could go for 150 yards, Griffin put up 14-for-20, 150 yards, 0 INTs.... and score 17 points Saturday. And there is a goodly chance that Tulane just goes and makes one of their every other game "messes".

So I like the simple, routine expression of big number offense featured by USM- and not the what do we have this week nature of Tulane. Southern Mississippi -9.5 over Tulane is the pick.

Quick Announcement

2010-11-03T09:33:00.001-04:00

I am going off topic today to slip in a quick announcement- some blog news. Eight years ago, I started writing here about Tulane. I’ve made friends, learned a lot and built a readership I respect.

This summer I received an offer to write for a major college program- to move part and parcel. The summer Tulane Retrospective was begun as a sort of farewell. In the end, I decided to not do it- but the process forced me to conclude that, after said eight years, I wanted to replace this project with “something else”.

Consequently, this blog will conclude- after the requisite post-season analysis. But I am posting this now to give some context to a few future thumbsuckers on Tulane.

I’ve always been a proponent of Tulane athletics looking like a “real” program. Marching bands, chat boards, cheerleaders and tailgating- a substantial program has all the peripherals. Accordingly, Tulane football needs a blog, an unofficial communication engine- and for all of Frank Helps You Think It All Out’s warts, it served as a link spot for CBS Sports, SB Nation and BlogPoll.

So, while I am content to leave this property, I’d like for something to move forward. I still want to write about Tulane, but not with the three times a week deadline that is necessary to keep readers coming back. I’d like to share responsibility- and cover gaps in this site’s offering: recruiting, real journalism, etc.

As the sole proprietor currently, I push content. I’d like to help produce something more democratic. Plus, as Tulane does an indifferent job with all this new media- maybe we could fill the gap after we produce a credible product: do a weekly on line radio show, offer guests to WTUL and sports stations, liaise with the Hullabaloo and Times-Picayune, be a resource to the League.

The point is, I don’t have an answer yet- but I am going to spend some bandwidth here musing on a “new” product, soliciting input and participation.

The longevity of this blog has opened some other opportunities for me- writing projects in the past I’ve declined to investigate that I’d still like to try. Write about other stuff- and also focus on a longer New Orleans related writing product.

In the end, my time as a routine content provider has run its course. I’ve done enough. And you’ve heard enough from me.

I will save the good-byes and thank yous for the true end. But I wanted to communicate the coming conclusion of this project.

BlogPoll Week 10

2010-11-02T10:56:00.003-04:00

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 10

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	Boise St. Broncos	1
4	LSU Tigers	2
5	Wisconsin Badgers	2
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
7	Nebraska Cornhuskers	5
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	1
9	TCU Horned Frogs	1
10	Missouri Tigers	-5
11	Oklahoma Sooners	--
12	Utah Utes	1
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
14	Michigan St. Spartans	-11
15	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
16	Stanford Cardinal	--
17	Arizona Wildcats	--
18	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	2
19	Iowa Hawkeyes	3
20	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	3
21	Baylor Bears	--
22	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
23	N.C. State Wolfpack	--
24	Florida St. Seminoles	-6
25	Central Florida Knights	--
Dropouts: Miami Hurricanes, USC Trojans, East Carolina Pirates, Michigan Wolverines

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

The requisite notes:

One nice thing about ranking Arizona and Stanford below some 2-loss SEC teams is that I am free from having to pretend either could go 5-3 in the SEC.

UCF slides into the C-USA "spot". A lot of League teams have cycled through there. I believe I've voted for Southern Miss, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina and UCF.

I have South Carolina a lot higher than other pollsters.... residual from when they defeated the Tide. I think, in the end, the Tide will be valiadated as real good- so that win should count for a lot. Also, one of South Carolina's losses is to the top team in my poll: Auburn. They have the best resume of two loss teams in the country right now.

Throw the $!@# Ball Toledo.

2010-11-01T16:08:00.003-04:00

If you are a follower of this blog, have some tolerance for my opinions, watching Saturday’s game was a lonely wreck in slow motion. Everyone around you, the announcers on the radio, were cheerily lapping up Orleans Darkwa’s nifty rushing totals. You were very alone with dark thoughts:

On paper, this is all a success. But I'm worried… not only Tulane is rushing the football almost exclusively, but particularly on first down (25 rushes in 32 first downs). As usual, we aren't turning rushing the football into the thirty points needed to beat good teams in this League. Aren't we deliberately eschewing big play opportunities on the most advantageous down and distance combination?
That is SMU and C-USA QB assassin Kyle Padron over there- a big play machine that can make this lead go away real quick with only a quarter, even ten minutes, of decent C-USA offensive play. They are not afraid to throw and score 21 in a quarter.
Frankly, like UTEP, Tulane has executed this "run the ball" game plan perfectly, played awfully well on offense. And yet, like Frank always says, the Green Wave is $!@# again stuck on 10-17 points, deep in the third quarter, in a big totals League. Why are we again deliberately playing a game where we need to be excellent for sixty minutes to score 21 points, and SMU can undo all our work in ten minutes of decent play?

How many times have we seen this game plan from Toledo? 51 runs, 26 passes. Jeez. I mean, how many teams have won League games with just ten completions this decade? Why does zero feel like the right answer? Why do we have to re-invent this wheel?

Of course, Toledo simply doesn’t get it. See the next quote- blaming the defense?- who held SMU to a perfectly normal kind of day in C-USA. Note how he equates running the ball well with success, and not actual scoreboard points:

The first half, I thought we played really well. We did really well on defense and offensively we were running the ball real well. Then the second half, we didn't block as well, Orleans Darkwa was nicked up a little bit, he got hurt, and we didn't run the ball as well.

Defensively...we fell apart. We didn't tackle well. We didn't stop the run. Our passing defense was very poor. They ran one route several times and they beat us. They beat us deep, we didn't tackle the guy and they just had a very good fourth quarter and we didn't.

No such ideological problems on the SMU sideline. Coach Jones not only knows how to generate wins in this League, but also does not think ten points through three quarters on offense is evidence of "playing well".

The Mustangs too were having a wonderful day running the ball, but did not allow that Siren to divert them from the real Conference USA business of throwing the football (358 passing yards). Mind you, SMU was also averaging six yards a rush (184 yards rushing). Despite that, the Mustangs threw more than ran (37 passes, 28 rushes). Because SMU gets it. Three straight scoring TD possessions featuring a 25+ yards pass play result, two crushing fourth quarter giant pass plays, a commitment to the business of big scoring, was the difference.

That is how you score 21 points in ten minutes. 200 yards rushing is getting to 17 points, the hard way, through three quarters.

Don’t be pointing the finger at Ryan Griffin either. No quarterback can succeed in this League without be allowed to throw against base defenses (no nickel/dime), and throwing a lot on first down. 15 of 26 of Griffin’s passing attempts were second or third and long, another two were on fourth down. Nine attempts- nine!- in passing situations where the advantage is with the quarterback. How clueless do you have to be about the state and nature of C-USA to try and win a game with only nine attempts in good passing situations, ten total completions? In a passing League! C’mon!

Shameful performance from the offensive coaching and Coach Toledo.

Prediction Thursday- SMU

2010-10-28T02:19:00.000-04:00

After years of woe (one win in both 2007 and 2008), June Jones now has a real nice program at SMU. They are officially up from rock bottom to second tier League power. If you excise Houston, the Mustangs have lost only one conference game in two years.

That makes this a tough spot for Tulane. First, while I am very accepting of the fact that Tulane is improved, SMU has made a lot of hay beating .500 C-USA teams again and again and again the past two seasons. The Mustangs are a clear step better than even. Secondly, the raw consistentcy of their approach is evident in that 9-1 record ex-Houston. They always pitch the good game; Tulane has consistency issues at running back, return teams, pass coverage. Third, Tulane has had issues dealing with prosperity- falling flat off big wins against Army this year and Marshall last year. Vegas agrees, giving SMU the very tricky hook: Mustangs -7.5 over the Green Wave.

Those consistency issues have specifically chapped me lately- riding a three game losing streak ATS. I deserved the Tulsa miss. But how was I supposed to know which team would essentially hand the game away via turnovers versus Army and UTEP? Ugh.

That being said, there is an undercurrent of something being off with SMU this year. They are 4-4, a little bit of a comedown from last year’s eight win campaign and dismantling of Nevada in the Hawai’i Bowl.

For one thing, the Mustangs don’t score enough. They haven’t cracked 21 in any of their last three (losing the last two): Tulsa, Navy, Houston. QB Kyle Padron is a nice prospect (C-USA all-frosh last year) with very good numbers (21 TDs, 8 Ints.)- but SMU has a little bit of a skill position issue. The top RB Zach Line is pretty good. But the wide out corps is pedestrian- three guys with receiving totals roughly that of Casey Robottom despite a real unwavering commitment to throw (40+ attempts the last three games). WR Darius Johnson has the most catches (50)- but again, fewer receiving yards than Robottom. Like Tulane, they seem to know what they are doing on offense- but don’t have that big receiving weapon.

As a result, SMU hasn’t gotten scoreboard separation a lot- and have split a lot of close games late. Again, they seem to have a tighter, mistake free product than most of their conference brethren, and still have been putting close conference wins in their pile.

I don’t really see why this game ought to be any different. This game screams team that knows how to win close conference games versus team that is figuring it out. Accordingly, it still figures to be close. SMU isn’t going to tag the improving Tulane defense for a big number- and the Green Wave quarterback has taken a step forward. Hard to cover a two score spread, bless you hook, when you are no lock to score 28.

So while it has potential heartbreak written all over it, heartbreak means close. The hook cements the decision: Tulane +7.5 over SMU

Alex Wacha Redux

2010-10-27T07:39:00.000-04:00

Last week, Alex Wacha was named to Phil Steele’s interim 1st-team all C-USA at strong safety.

This caught me a little flat-footed. Frankly, as a huge Shakiel Smith fan, I wasn’t even sure Wacha was the best safety on the team- let alone the best safety in C-USA. Not that Wacha was "bad", but I am always a little suspect of what passes for DB play around here. I always thought Wacha could run a little bit. In fact, I always think of him more as a corner. I am almost positive he was Tulane’s top depth and nickel corner at one point. That was sort of the extent of my scouting report. So I went out of my way to watch him this past week at UTEP.

I came away pretty impressed- Wacha is a pretty good tackler. He gets to and around the ball a lot, good pursuer, good angles, got some rabbit. He looks real experienced- both of Tulane’s safeties are high football IQ guys. So I was not surprised to see that he and Smith were second and third in tackles (50 and 48 respectively) on the football team.

A lot of people fuss when presented with good tackle totals from the safeties. You can look “smart” pointing out that so many stops are happening in the second and third defensive level. I’m not one of those people. Good safety play in C-USA is about tackling.

So much of the League’s offensive philosophy is getting the ball out past the first level. The spread is predicated on de-emphasizing line play, shifting emphasis to the perimeter and defensive secondary versus off-tackle and gap rushing plays. C-USA isn’t about whipping the seven guys in the box; it is about getting match-ups on the edges and seams.

Faced with the C-USA quarterback who can successfully throw the ball 65% of the time to said seams and edges, over the heads of the DL, there are plays that need making in the secondary. All game long safeties are challenged by backs, tight ends and z-receivers catching short routes and turning up-field. Somebody has got to track those guys down. 25 short completions means a fifteen tackles that need making by safeties- tackles that cannot be missed.

Wacha and Smith did that Saturday. The raw season numbers, 100 tackles, suggest these guys are getting the perimeter attackers down. Safety might be the best position grouping on the team.

BlogPoll Week 9

2010-10-26T09:55:00.003-04:00

Frank Helps You Think It All Out Ballot - Week 9

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	Michigan St. Spartans	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Missouri Tigers	--
6	LSU Tigers	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
9	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
10	TCU Horned Frogs	--
11	Oklahoma Sooners	--
12	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
13	Utah Utes	--
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
15	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
16	Stanford Cardinal	--
17	Arizona Wildcats	--
18	Florida St. Seminoles	--
19	Miami Hurricanes	--
20	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
21	USC Trojans	--
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	--
23	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
24	East Carolina Pirates	--
25	Michigan Wolverines	--

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

I think it is pretty clear that Auburn and Oregon have the best body of work among the unbeatens. I give Auburn the nod because their League is better.

I'm shocked Alabama is ranked ahead of LSU in the major polls. Alabama lost to South Carolina- LSU lost to undefeated Auburn. And the Tide's win over Penn State doesn't look so impressive in hindsight.

If you have two losses- and one is a home loss to James Madison- you are not the 21st best team in the country: Virginia Tech. That is ridiculous on the surface.

I don't think Utah could beat anyone ahead of them six times in ten, let alone go 5-3 in the SEC.

So Close To Relevance

2010-10-25T10:28:00.003-04:00

There was a lot of rubble to sort through this weekend: Phillies eliminated, Eagles embarrassed, Saints routed.

But how about that Tulane Green Wave? Their second upset of a double digit favorite while playing on the road. The case for improvement, an outside chance for Bowl eligibility, is still in play.

That being said, unlike the Rutgers’ upset, a little humility is called for here. I was quick to minimize the Army loss as an atypical game: clustered turnovers and some bad karma undid the touchdown favorite.

But I can’t write that a month ago- and then not acknowledge that this victory was sort of the same thing here. If Army proved that three turnovers in a half plus some shaky coaching choices are enough to overturn a decent home favorite, then this game was a further, similar lesson. I’m not sure there is all that much separation between the Miners and the Green Wave. UTEP is clearly a mediocre C-USA outfit, and that sort of collective can’t survive repeatedly giving the football away. The point is, I did not really mark Tulane down much after Army, and I ain’t marking them up much here. In an entire season, karma largely sorts itself out- and this win just sort of restores the status quo.

After lauding Mike Price in this space last weekend, I was a little embarrassed by his approach. Ryan Griffin and the Tulane offense are a maturing group. Opponents cannot sit passively back. Tulane is an increasingly decent C-USA outfit, decent C-USA outfits can score thirty points- and consequently, rivals need to try to score five, six touchdowns.

Yet, Price was so passive. Obviously, Trevor Vittitoe was having a tough go- but it is hard to engineer a 40 point, six touchdown night (which is frankly what UTEP needed to achieve to win) with 21 attempts, 102 passing yards.

This was the sort of game that sorts a “real” C-USA fan from a casual college football observer. If you were cackling at home, labeling Mike Price’s game plan “suspect”, for calling for 60% runs, 31 carries for 206 yards, you get the League. On paper it looks great- all that rushing!

But the real C-USA fan knows that sort of run-pass ratio, particularly on a night where you only get 60 snaps, is sentencing you to a performance of 20-ish points. Even if you play well, have success, you are merely at 24 points. Frankly, Price created an attack designed to keep Tulane in the game (ed. note- We’ve seen it. Matt Forte. He would crush teams for 200+ yards, but the Wave would be stuck in the ‘teens, and lose.)

It is not enough firepower to consistently win in the League. You can’t overlay NFL success metrics on to this League. The decent-to-good C-USA team is still normally a potential monster on offense: near 500 yards, five/six TDs… an you cannot generate those cartoon numbers primarily rushing the football. You have to give yourself dozens of chances to generate field position flipping plays on first down- not set up 2nd and five.

I don’t mean to ding the Wave this morning- but if you want to know why Tulane was unable to turn a really great day on offense (461 yards), with three bonus good field position possessions off turnovers, into more than four TDs (really, not an acceptable number in the League given all those turnovers), you might look at a similar excess propensity to run the football too.

The Wave had that unreal great day rushing (281 yards)- but an inadequate number of scores. Many outside observers would say “Wow!”; a C-USA fan would say “not enough points”. My chief tactical problem with Coach Toledo is that culturally he is unable to recognize that running the football in our League is only situationally important: a change of pace, short yardage, or red zone applications.

I’m telling you, had the Wave not gotten all those turnovers, and then lost this game 27-24 in OT, that run/pass mix is where I would be pointing the finger this morning. As the fourth quarter ground on, Tulane was in real danger of losing because they were running the football too much. There is a real danger in C–USA for mis-understanding not only the nature but also the amount of scoring required in the League. If you want to score 40 points, be really good on offense, 45-carry days (paqrticularly first down carries) are problematic.

Enough of that. It was a good win, evidence that the defense can keep anything other than a monster C-USA offense (say Tulsa) under some kind of wraps- and that the offense is getting the totals up. A middle of the pack C-USA team is really looking to break out here.

Prediction Thursday- UTEP

2010-10-21T12:44:00.006-04:00

Mike Price is, in my opinion, the best game day coach in C-USA. UTEP is really a marginal collection of players- they have the same number of folks as Tulane on yesterday's Phil Steele list.

But Price gets the League and approach. Rather than agonize over offensive approaches and trick plays, Price has merely coached up the right guys. I mean, does anyone really believe four year starter Trevor Vittatoe is an elite prospect? He isn’t really mobile, sprays the ball around. He is not on some draft boards, late round on others.

Yet from day one, he was prepped and ready to go- a four year, routine 30 TD, 3000 yard, C-USA numbers machine. His career numbers in TDs surpass Peyton Manning and Byron Leftwich. He is arguably the MVP of the League- driving a blah UTEP team to a real good 5-2 start. And Price has a couple of plus skill players: RB Donald Buckram (up and down this year after 1500 yards rushing last year) and WR Kris Adams. That might be all UTEP really has that is real good. But Price is all about finding and coaching talent at the skill positions- and guys like Orleans Darkwa are not touted as realistic major contributors there. Thus, the Miners are -10 over Tulane.

Frankly, the Tulane from earlier in the season would be a lay-up here. That Green Wave outfit could win this game outright; ten points would have been gravy. But they’ve been blown out two weeks in a row- bringing into doubt the ability to stay close when presented with C-USA firepower.

Certainly, Tulane did not deserve to win either the Army or Tulsa game. But I can’t shake the feeling they were a mite unlucky. The defense allowed a respectable total versus Army, the offense had 500+ yards under duress versus Tulsa. No matter what happens on the other side of the ball, these are efforts that probably are not normally indicative of being routed.

So, yes, I can see something "even". Tulane allowing 400 yards on defense and generating a like number under the increasingly productive Ryan Griffin. Unfortunately, Trevor Vittatoe probably turns those yards into more points than Griffin. That is what this game is about: equal talent, but Price is light years ahead of Toledo as a exploiter of said talent. But is it worth ten?

I looked at UAB upset effort. The Blazers had a fortunate day on offense, 500 yards- but like I suggested above, UAB just couldn’t turn it in to actual points. I can definitely see Tulane struggling to the same 21 point effort where the results simply don’t add up to the production assets. Plus, a team can run on the Miners- but I increasingly think the Tulane running back trifecta simply isn’t very good. I don’t know if Tulane can run the ball inside the 20- turn that field position into touchdowns

And the Tulane defense just doesn’t seem adept at stopping these sort of big number C-USA quarterbacks. The Green Wave seems to do okay with quarterbacks that are limited: Houston, Rutgers, Army- but the real schooled distributors kill them. The experienced distributors can deal with the decent pass rush Tulane gets.

Sort of feels like five TDs to three- and the return follies, coach and general team karma just don’t seem to be of the sort where Tulane can get a free score through preparation. That is not enough to cover ten. UTEP -10 over Tulane is the pick.

Wonking With Phil Steele

2010-10-20T14:06:00.007-04:00

Phil Steele has his mid-season all C-USA team out. Tulane has a decent smattering of representatives: SEVEN- one more than Rice. Marshall had five, UAB four, and Memphis three. SMU had the most- thirteen.

1st team:

DT Justin Adams: no doubt the interior DL has been vastly improved early in the season. Pre-Army, Tulane was quite good against the run at times.

LB Trent Mackey: Team MVP so far.

S Alex Wacha: This surprises me. But the safety play has been strong in spots- up the middle defense has been okay for Tulane. Wacha hasn't struck me as great this year. But DB is always a weak position in C-USA- and he did have a huge interception versus Rutgers. And I don't have an obvious replacement.

2nd team:

TE Cody Sparks: Again, weak position in C-USA. Had to pick someone I guess, and the veteran gets in. I think he's been disappointing this year. He is not a great blocker and the raw numbers just aren't there.

3rd team:

WR Casey Robottom: Three wide outs make each level- and he is arguably top ten. Maybe. Veteran status helps here too.

C Andrew Nierman: Competent lineman in a League that really struggles to find interior o-lineman.

OT Pete Hendrickson: Again, a journeyman performer you can trust in a League that struggles to generate "big" players.

No More Hurricanes

2010-10-18T10:14:00.003-04:00

First, I will admit I did not watch the 52-24 Tulsa debacle with my full attention. The Phillies were beginning their defense of the Pennant in full high def, while Tulane was available only via a grainy, possibly illegal internet feed.

No matter. Hard to draw constructive tactical lessons from yet another rout. On the surface, the game was perplexing. As predicted here, Tulane did possess the ball an awful lot, mostly through the air: QB Ryan Griffin was 36-53, 412 yards, 2 TDs; 35 rushes for a decent 117 yards, 36 minutes ToP. Yet, how can Tulane run 91 plays, score 24 points, 527 yards of offense, simply have the ball that much - and still get decked?

Our collective football frame of reference is the NFL and the proto-NFL (SEC)- and the collective associates a three TD loss into one team being dominated. But that is not C-USA.

You have to think about C-USA a little different. Defenses in the NFL tend to fail in stages- sort of a linear progression from good-to-okay-to-bad. C-USA defenses tend to gap down, a geometric reaction versus arithmetic- like a bridge sagging, sagging, sagging, then utter failure. I tend to think that stems from a talent gap factor. There is an ability step down in the NFL from star to starter to reserve. But that gap is miniscule to the step down in C-USA. You can have a pro prospect one place, and a guy who might not start for Harvard at another. In the NFL you might occassionally have one or two defenders who totally can’t handle their assignments. In C-USA, you routinely have three or four guys who are just over matched.

Thus, Tulane’s defense Saturday is explained. Their improvement over last year is tied to a couple of transfers and Shakiel Smith. They can have extended the sag capacity- but total collapse is still possible. Thus, this Tulane gap downward is understandable- decked for 52 points and 350+ yards rushing. Further proof of collapse: ten Tulsa players had double digit rushing totals. Ten! Five of those ten averaged more than ten yards a pop. I honestly don’t know if I ever seen that- even from an option team.

Tulane’s offense, particularly the quarterback, wasn’t terrible. Certainly, the Tulane offense did not deserve to be on the short end of this kind of rout. Ryan Griffin supporters have won the argument at this point. Yet again, he turned in that 65% completion percentage, low turnover day. The big yardage totals surfaced when faced with the typical challenged C-USA secondary.

But Tulane was not able to engineer that same defensive collapse in Tulsa- where 500 yards of offense becomes 50+ points in 25 minutes versus a mere 24 points in 35 minutes.

Frankly, the skill position players outside of the quarterback just don’t give Tulane much of anything “special” right now. I mean, the Tulane offense can’t complete 60-65% of your pass attempts, generate 500 yards of offense, without passable play. Guys seem to be standing in the right places at the right time, blocking the right guys, organized football plays are run competently.

But none of the receivers put pressure on anyone. Robottom is the best of the lot- and he defines pedestrian, competent C-USA wideout. He just isn’t going to blossom into a perimeter attacker, touchdown maker, second team all C-USA star we had all hoped for four years ago. He is a an okay second wide out being asked to play the top spot- but that dazzle you need in this League to generate free scores, that flip the field position talent is just not there.

DJ Banks is the second guy- and I just don’t see what the buzz is about. Ryan Griffin, for all his faults, is distributing the ball accurately- and Banks can’t get anything big going. Double his season totals and you get 50 catches, 480 yards. Those are “so what?” numbers. Here is another problem: together Banks and Robottom have three TD receptions. How many games can you win in this big score League if your top two receivers project to have six TD catches for the season?

And, to reiterate last week, this three-headed Darkwa, Willaims, Jason rushing “monster” is really either two guys stealing carriers from the best one or three okay-minus backs routinely unable to distinguish themselves from even each other. I will also point out this dynamic trio has a terrible 18 catches combined for the season.

Just not a whole lot of juice from the top five (in terms of total touches) skill options. It is hard to win in offense-friendly C-USA when none of your wide outs, tight ends or running backs are better than mediocre. Who is even a third team all C-USA player on offense?

Dezman Moses

2010-10-15T11:37:00.004-04:00

I was a little glib yesterday in the comments concerning Dezman Moses’ injury. I’m not so sanguine this morning- although reports are conflicted as to whether the key DE can go.

I don’t know if fistfights and brawls are part of the practice culture Coach Toledo cultivates. I’m doubtful. I mean the guy has been here four years and that is the first time fisticuffs have made the lead. I am even accepting of the notion that some roughhousing is unavoidable. But all of this is a slippery slope for Toledo. He is in a perilous place.

Let's start here: I am really unsure fighting is indicative of a good practice(s) or culture. If unsupervised aggression during practice is anecdotally a good thing, why isn’t emotional display, lack of concentration and disregard for consequences also predictive of game-time fumbles and illegal kicking tees and “practice fighting injuries”? Since Coach Toledo got here, there has been more than a little Personal Foul Tulane is how we roll attitude. Add in this injury.

I used the word anecdotally above deliberately. Moses’ injury and Tulane’s propensity to undisciplined penalties are facts. Perceived benefits to an anarchic practice are, again, largely anecdotal. The same people pounding the team the hardest for penalties and turnovers are probably the same lot praising a culture of indiscipline at practice. It is like the endless happy yammering a few years ago about the importance of Toledo’s complaints about summer weight training- as if Tulane’s talent problems were about a dozen unsupervised summer workouts. Anecdotal frequently equals illusionary.

Football has a culture hundreds of years old. Don’t try to re-invent the success factors. And mind you, fighting is part and parcel of general sporting culture. Rage does happen. In the NHL, fighting has a definite tactical role. In baseball, it is part of self-policing the dangers of a pitched baseball. Football has no such culture. Sure, fighting happens- but if it was advantageous, you would see it as part of the fabric of the game. It is hard to fool a hundred years of culture.

Back to the slippery slope. If it is not illusionary, most of Tulane’s improvement this year centers on the introduction of two "good for C-USA" players to the defense (Mackey and Moses) to go with Shakiel Smith- plus a serviceable quarterback prospect.

That is four key guys. Four. That is all you need in C-USA to have a pulse- to not get ripped by Tulsa and Houston 50-7 every week. The reason I opine that an average coach doing an average job at Tulane can win eight games is that is doesn’t take much- just a dozen plus C-USA players and a quarterback. Look at Rice two years ago, or SMU last year.

But it can slip away quick too- the cast of three key characters on defense might have been reduced by one for nonsense. In C-USA, there is no suggestion of quality depth (if Tulane has another “quality” DE he’d be starting on the other side or forced into playing out of position to get on the field). If three good defensive players equals “decent”, trust me that the Tulane fan doesn’t want to know what one good player equals.

And that is the “perilous place”- is Coach really sure he can survive six weeks of bad beatings this far into his tenure? Scelfo had past successes (for Tulane), his 2006 team had moved forward from the Katrina disaster and would whip any of Toledo’s iterations, there were obvious stars on the roster (Forte, Williams)- but it went bad quick. A stupid decision on a punt, some losing- and he had to go.

So, if you are going to allow brawling in practice (even once in awhile or inadvertantly), it cannot be unsupervised. Tulane has a dozen plus assistant coaches; they have to know who can fight and who cannot. Tulane is allowed to have players who are important to the program too.

These guys aren’t fodder. The manager who let Jose Canseco pitch and throw out his arm was fired. If an NFL coach exposed his $8M/year end to needless injury, he could expect to answer for it. Moses is as important to Tulane football as those two examples- so protect the asset. Plus, you know, he is a kid with further football aspirations- there is an obligation as a coach and mentor to protect him from a bad, emotional moment.

Anyway, hopefully Moses is safe and plays. But there has to be a better job done here.

Prediction Thursday

2010-10-14T09:31:00.006-04:00

It took until the sixth game of this season (plus the absence of QB Case Keenum from Houston), but the big exam, a real C-USA style audit, is finally here. Saturday presents Tulane with a genuine example of the special football neighborhood the Green Wave frequents: the full tilt, forty points a game, cartoon number C-USA offense- of course equipped with sling it quarterback GJ Kinne.

Hold on tight people. GJ Kinne is the real deal: a big time recruit (originally signed at Texas), career 142 passer rating, 60% completion percentage, NFL body and mid-round draft prospect. In his second career start last year, he tore the Wave up: 15 for 20, 211 yards, 1 TD- plus a 15 yard TD run and a 45 yard scramble. Tulsa rotates a variety of good backs- and for a team that looks to keep the ball in Kinne’s hands and throw first- rushes it very well. The Golden Hurricane is a certified handful on offense (ranked ninth in FBS “officially”), reflected in the New York Post putting Tulsa -18.5 over Tulane.

Now, one good thing about having picked games for so long is that a reference of sorts exists. From an ATS point of view, this season feels like 2006.

Think back to 2006- really the nadir of public confidence in the Scelfo regime. Fans were unhappy and a lot of bad karma and noise surrounded the on-field product. Yet, I posted a nifty 9-3 ATS mark by positing a lonely thought again and again: the 2006 Wave was not that bad.

Outside of two stone sacrificial lamb games- at Auburn, at LSU- Tulane was a decent 4-6 (with a win at Mississippi State). There was no FCS lay-up game either: put Southern in for Auburn and Tulane was 5-7. Tulane quietly fielded more collected C-USA talent than Toledo has yielded since: Ricard, Forte, Route, the vastly underrated Jeremy Foreman. Davis, Brown and Williams were light years ahead of the current receiving group. The 2006 Tulane team would have beaten the 2007-2009 versions by two scores and be a six-win team versus this year's schedule.

I’m not really eager to rehash ’06, other than to take this lesson. The “feel bad” train was so loaded (no one thought they could beat Mississippi State, a game I felt Tulane probably could not lose)- that you could get rich looking at the fat lines and taking Tulane again and again.

I’ve pretty much ridden that theory, that the pre-season consensus of “Tulane=horrible” was wrong- and taking the Wave again and again en route to a 4-1 ATS start. And I’m on it again here- particularly as an unusual Army loss plumps a fat number back up again. Sure, the loss to the Cadets was embarrassing- but when a team only allow 343 yards of offense, said team was probably unlucky or unreal stupid to get blown out. Frankly, Tulsa -18.5 just seems a little rich.

There is risk. Tulane’s defense has improved, mostly against the run- but with Keenum out, it has not seen this sort of firepower directed at the passing game. But Tulsa is 3-3; I’m pretty sure Tulane would be square playing that schedule too (FCS opponent, plus Memphis and Bowling Green are terrible). Plus, Tulsa’s defense is a 2008 Tulane level wreck: 101st overall, 115th against the pass.

As we saw against Rutgers and Houston, Tulane can adequately both run the ball and possess the ball via the pass- generate some points and possession time. Tulane can absolutely score 24-ish here- which starts forcing Tulsa into some crazy numbers in order to cover. Frankly, Tulane’s defense looks like it might have enough life to keep that from happening. If the Wave plays defense like it did at Rutgers, Tulsa ain’t scoring six, seven TDs here. “18.5” is a BIG number- five TDs probably doesn’t see Tulsa through. Reference the Houston game, where everything that could go wrong for Tulane in the first quarter went wrong, and the Cougars were still touch and go with that giant number.

Intangibles look good too. The Army rout hopefully means Toledo has got his team’s attention- and Tulane has actually played harder and smarter on the road. Kind of a trap game too for Tulsa- the Golden Hurricane has a bye, then Notre Dame.

Bottom line: Tulane probably scores into the 20s against this poor Tulsa defense, scoring at that level necessitates some good ball possession numbers. Tulsa will have to play both great and quick to get to 40+. That cover seems problematic. So, while it will be hard for Tulane to keep up (the offensive firepower discrepancy is the biggest Tulane will probably face this year), it is too much of a head start. Tulane +18.5 over Tulsa is the pick to get to 5-1 ATS.